Predicción de la demanda de energía eléctrica basado en análisis Wavelet y un modelo neuronal auto-regresivo no lineal Nar

En este artículo se presenta una propuesta metodológica para la predicción mensual de energía eléctrica del Sistema Interconectado Nacional (SIN) de Colombia, mediante la transformada discreta de Wavelet y una red neuronal artificial. El modelo propuesto utiliza como punto de partida una base de datos univariada en miles de Gwh por mes, entre Agosto del 1995 y Junio de 2010, disponible en el sistema de Neón (www.xm.com.co). Esta serie es denominada original y consta de 179 muestras.  Con el fin de extraer tendencia y estacionalidad de la serie, en la etapa de pre-procesamiento  se utilizó  la transformada discreta wavelet (DWT). Debido al carácter no lineal que presenta la serie original, se manejó un modelo neuronal autorregresivo no lineal (NAR) y se  determinó un vector de las entradas pasadas necesarias para la predicción con el autocorrelograma (relación que tiene el valor actual de la serie original con sus valores pasados) de la serie residual. Los resultados obtenidos fueron contrastados con un modelo estadístico lineal autorregresivo (AR)

Influence of Vetiver and Eucalyptus on slopes stability

At the local ambit, eucalyptus and vetiver are common plants in Colombia, which can consider by their stabilizing effect by local engineers. It was carried out an analysis of the effect on stability produced by eucalyptus and vetiver on different kinds of soils, varying the geometry, the inclination angle, and considering the water table effect. The method of analysis used is the limit equilibrium under the Mohr-Coulomb criteria. The root effect shown in cohesion added varies depending on soil depth, and plant type, as well as the weight of eucalyptus, are the parameters that are considered in the use of vegetation as a slope stabilizing agent. The effect of water on the slope can be seen in the results, being significant in the slope safety factor, especially when the inclinations angles are low and affected by the type of vegetation present. Finally, the effectiveness of eucalyptus in slope stability was demonstrated, the only negative factor being its weight on high slopes, while the contribution offered by the young vetiver to the stability of the slope is not very significant.El eucalipto y el vetiver son plantas comunes en Colombia, las cuales pueden ser tomadas en cuenta por su efecto estabilizador por los ingenieros locales. Se realizó el análisis del efecto en la estabilidad que produce el eucalipto y el vetiver sobre diferentes tipos de suelos, variando la geometría, el ángulo de inclinación y teniendo en cuenta el efecto del nivel freático. El método de análisis trabajado es el equilibrio límite bajo el criterio de Mohr-Coulomb. Los efectos de las raíces mostrados en cohesión añadida varían dependiendo de la profundidad en el suelo y del tipo de planta; estos junto con el peso del eucalipto son los parámetros que se tuvieron en cuenta en el uso de la vegetación como agente estabilizador de taludes. El efecto del agua sobre el talud se puede ver en los resultados, y tiene un impacto significativo en el factor de seguridad del talud, sobre todo cuando los ángulos de inclinación son bajos y dependiendo del tipo de vegetación presente. Finalmente, se demostró la efectividad del eucalipto en la estabilidad de taludes, cuyo único factor negativo es su peso en altas pendientes, mientras que el aporte ofrecido por el vetiver joven a la estabilidad del talud no es muy significativo

Effectiveness and Safety of the Switch from Remicade® to CT-P13 in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

[Background and Aims] To evaluate the clinical outcomes in patients with IBD after switching from Remicade® to CT-P13 in comparison with patients who maintain Remicade®.[Methods] Patients under Remicade® who were in clinical remission with standard dosage at study entry were included. The ‘switch cohort’ [SC] comprised patients who made the switch from Remicade® to CT-P13, and the ‘non-switch’ cohort [NC] patients remained under Remicade®.[Results] A total of 476 patients were included: 199 [42%] in the SC and 277 [58%] in the NC. The median follow-up was 18 months in the SC and 23 months in the NC [p < 0.01]. Twenty-four out of 277 patients relapsed in the NC; the incidence of relapse was 5% per patient-year. The cumulative incidence of relapse was 2% at 6 months and 10% at 24 months in this group. Thirty-eight out of 199 patients relapsed in the SC; the incidence rate of relapse was 14% per patient-year. The cumulative incidence of relapse was 5% at 6 months and 28% at 24 months. In the multivariate analysis, the switch to CT-P13 was associated with a higher risk of relapse (HR = 3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2–6). Thirteen percent of patients had adverse events in the NC, compared with 6% in the SC [p < 0.05].[Conclusions] Switching from Remicade® to CT-P13 might be associated with a higher risk of clinical relapse, although this fact was not supported in our study by an increase in objective markers of inflammation. The nocebo effect might have influenced this result. Switching from Remicade® to CT-P13 was safe.This research has been funded by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III [PI13/00041 and FI17/00143]

Gamma/Hadron Separation with the HAWC Observatory

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) gamma-ray observatory observesatmospheric showers produced by incident gamma rays and cosmic rays with energyfrom 300 GeV to more than 100 TeV. A crucial phase in analyzing gamma-raysources using ground-based gamma-ray detectors like HAWC is to identify theshowers produced by gamma rays or hadrons. The HAWC observatory records roughly25,000 events per second, with hadrons representing the vast majority($>99.9\%$) of these events. The standard gamma/hadron separation technique inHAWC uses a simple rectangular cut involving only two parameters. This workdescribes the implementation of more sophisticated gamma/hadron separationtechniques, via machine learning methods (boosted decision trees and neuralnetworks), and summarizes the resulting improvements in gamma/hadron separationobtained in HAWC.<br

Gamma-ray Emission from Classical Nova V392 Per: Measurements from Fermi and HAWC

This paper reports on the $\gamma$-ray properties of the 2018 Galactic novaV392 Per, spanning photon energies $\sim$0.1 GeV to 100 TeV by combiningobservations from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and the HAWC Observatory.In one of the most rapidly evolving $\gamma$-ray signals yet observed for anova, GeV $\gamma$ rays with a power law spectrum with index $\Gamma = 2.0 \pm0.1$ were detected over eight days following V392 Per's optical maximum. HAWCobservations constrain the TeV $\gamma$-ray signal during this time and alsobefore and after. We observe no statistically significant evidence of TeV$\gamma$-ray emission from V392 Per, but present flux limits. Tests of theextension of the Fermi/LAT spectrum to energies above 5 TeV are disfavored by 2standard deviations (95\%) or more. We fit V392 Per's GeV $\gamma$ rays withhadronic acceleration models, incorporating optical observations, and comparethe calculations with HAWC limits.<br

Validation of standardized data formats and tools for ground-level particle-based gamma-ray observatories

Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy is still a rather young field of research,with strong historical connections to particle physics. This is why mostobservations are conducted by experiments with proprietary data and analysissoftware, as it is usual in the particle physics field. However in recentyears, this paradigm has been slowly shifting towards the development and useof open-source data formats and tools, driven by upcoming observatories such asthe Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). In this context, a community-driven,shared data format (the gamma-astro-data-format or GADF) and analysis toolssuch as Gammapy and ctools have been developed. So far these efforts have beenled by the IACT community, leaving out other types of ground-based gamma-rayinstruments.We aim to show that the data from ground particle arrays, such asthe High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory, is also compatible withthe GADF and can thus be fully analysed using the related tools, in this caseGammapy. We reproduce several published HAWC results using Gammapy and dataproducts compliant with GADF standard. We also illustrate the capabilities ofthe shared format and tools by producing a joint fit of the Crab spectrumincluding data from six different gamma-ray experiments. We find excellentagreement with the reference results, a powerful check of both the publishedresults and the tools involved. The data from particle detector arrays such asthe HAWC observatory can be adapted to the GADF and thus analysed with Gammapy.A common data format and shared analysis tools allow multi-instrument jointanalysis and effective data sharing. Given the complementary nature of pointingand wide-field instruments, this synergy will be distinctly beneficial for thejoint scientific exploitation of future observatories such as the SouthernWide-field Gamma-ray Observatory and CTA.<br

High Altitude characterization of the Hunga Pressure Wave with Cosmic Rays by the HAWC Observatory

High-energy cosmic rays that hit the Earth can be used to study large-scale atmospheric perturbations. After a first interaction in the upper parts of the atmosphere, cosmic rays produce a shower of particles that sample the atmosphere down to the detector level. The HAWC (High-Altitude Water Cherenkov) cosmic-ray observatory in Central Mexico at 4,100 m elevation detects air shower particles continuously with 300 water Cherenkov detectors with an active area of 12,500 m$^{2}$. On January 15th, 2022, HAWC detected the passage of the pressure wave created by the explosion of the Hunga volcano in the Tonga islands, 9,000 km away, as an anomaly in the measured rate of shower particles. The HAWC measurements are used to characterize the shape of four pressure wave passages, determine the propagation speed of each one, and correlate the variations of the shower particle rates with the barometric pressure changes, extracting a barometric parameter. The profile of the shower particle rate and atmospheric pressure variations for the first transit of the pressure wave at HAWC is compared to the pressure measurements at Tonga island, near the volcanic explosion. This work opens the possibility of using large particle cosmic-ray air shower detectors to trace large atmospheric transient waves.Comment: Contact about this analysis: A. Sandoval ([email protected]), A. Lara ([email protected]) & H. Le\'on Vargas ([email protected]

Galactic Gamma-Ray Diffuse Emission at TeV energies with HAWC Data

The Galactic gamma-ray diffuse emission (GDE) is emitted by cosmic rays (CRs), ultra-relativistic protons and electrons, interacting with gas and electromagnetic radiation fields in the interstellar medium. Here we present the analysis of TeV diffuse emission from a region of the Galactic Plane over the range in longitude of $l\in[43^\circ,73^\circ]$, using data collected with the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) detector. Spectral, longitudinal and latitudinal distributions of the TeV diffuse emission are shown. The radiation spectrum is compatible with the spectrum of the emission arising from a CR population with an "index" similar to that of the observed CRs. When comparing with the \texttt{DRAGON} \textit{base model}, the HAWC GDE flux is higher by about a factor of two. Unresolved sources such as pulsar wind nebulae and TeV halos could explain the excess emission. Finally, deviations of the Galactic CR flux from the locally measured CR flux may additionally explain the difference between the predicted and measured diffuse fluxes

Searching for TeV Dark Matter in Irregular dwarf galaxies with HAWC Observatory

We present the results of dark matter (DM) searches in a sample of 31 dwarf irregular (dIrr) galaxies within the field of view of the HAWC Observatory. dIrr galaxies are DM dominated objects, which astrophysical gamma-ray emission is estimated to be negligible with respect to the secondary gamma-ray flux expected by annihilation or decay of Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs). While we do not see any statistically significant DM signal in dIrr galaxies, we present the exclusion limits ($95\%~\text{C.L.}$) for annihilation cross-section and decay lifetime for WIMP candidates with masses between $1$ and $100~\text{TeV}$. Exclusion limits from dIrr galaxies are relevant and complementary to benchmark dwarf Spheroidal (dSph) galaxies. In fact, dIrr galaxies are targets kinematically different from benchmark dSph, preserving the footprints of different evolution histories. We compare the limits from dIrr galaxies to those from ultrafaint and classical dSph galaxies previously observed with HAWC. We find that the contraints are comparable to the limits from classical dSph galaxies and $\thicksim2$ orders of magnitude weaker than the ultrafaint dSph limits.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 3 table