Prediction of disease severity in patients with febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings

Febrile illnesses present unique challenges for health systems with scarce resources. Large volumes of mostly self-limiting diseases accompanied by high case-fatality rates for the small proportion of serious infections mean that risk stratification tools must have high sensitivities and/or specificities according to their proposed contexts of use. Unfortunately, accuracy and reliability of existing tools are sub-optimal and they are often impractical for deployment in resource-limited settings. This thesis explores the development and application of prediction tools for the management of febrile illnesses across a range of resource-constrained settings in South and Southeast Asia. It aims to combine the best prediction model science with a pragmatic field-based reality to address locally-important health issues. Recognising that evaluation of prediction tools should be set in their intended contexts of use, each analysis is framed in a particular clinical use-case, yet draws upon approaches to allow exploration of the generalisability of the findings. Using a variety of research methodologies, this thesis identifies prognostic factors amongst febrile children presenting to different levels of the health system, and uses these data to externally validate existing severity scores and develop new clinical prediction models suitable for resource-limited settings. Prospective work evaluates the relative contributions of clinical and biomarker-based approaches for the referral of children with respiratory infections from a resource-limited community setting on the Thailand-Myanmar border, whilst retrospective work develops a prognostic model for critically ill children on admission to a paediatric intensive care unit in northern Cambodia. Finally, in response to the arrival of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, this thesis reports the development and external validation of prognostic models at two sites in India to support the safe outpatient management of patients presenting with moderate Covid-19. Important challenges and potential solutions to developing prediction tools in resource-limited settings are discussed, including application of the classical prediction paradigm to the assessment of disease severity, comparative analyses of the clinical utility of different models, and the differential importance of various predictors for identifying both patients who are sick at the time of clinical assessment and those whose illnesses will progress later in their disease course

External validation of clinical severity scores to guide referral of paediatric acute respiratory infections in resource-limited primary care settings

Accurate and reliable guidelines for referral of children from resource-limited primary care settings are lacking. We identified three practicable paediatric severity scores (the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA), the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2, and the modified Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) and externally validated their performance in young children presenting with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) to a primary care clinic located within a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. This secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal birth cohort study consisted of 3010 ARI presentations in children aged ≤ 24 months. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We externally validated the discrimination, calibration, and net-benefit of the scores, and quantified gains in performance that might be expected if they were deployed as simple clinical prediction models, and updated to include nutritional status and respiratory distress. 104/3,010 (3.5%) presentations met the primary outcome. The LqSOFA score demonstrated the best discrimination (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89) and achieved a sensitivity and specificity > 0.80. Converting the scores into clinical prediction models improved performance, resulting in ~ 20% fewer unnecessary referrals and ~ 30-50% fewer children incorrectly managed in the community. The LqSOFA score is a promising triage tool for young children presenting with ARIs in resource-limited primary care settings. Where feasible, deploying the score as a simple clinical prediction model might enable more accurate and nuanced risk stratification, increasing applicability across a wider range of contexts

Prospects for the development of community-based care in remote rural areas: a stakeholder analysis in Laos

Background Community-based health programmes have been a cornerstone of primary care in Laos for decades. The study presented here aimed to document prospects for the development of current programmes, considering perceptions about health and health care priorities in the communities, implementation challenges, the policy landscape and opportunities associated with the availability of new technologies. Methods The research design primarily involved qualitative in-depth interviews with stakeholders (n = 35) responsible for the planning, management, or implementation of community-based care in Laos at different levels of the health system. These included health managers at central departments or institutes of the Ministry of Health, provincial health departments, district health offices, heads of health centres, village health volunteers, community representatives, and international stakeholders. Results There was consensus that service delivery is still a challenge in many areas, due to geographic inaccessibility of health facilities, communication barriers, health-seeking behaviour, trust, and gender discrimination, particularly among ethnic minorities. In these settings, community health workers have the potential to extend the reach of the formal health system, acting as cultural brokers across sectors of society, ethnicities, and worldviews. To maximise impact, planners need to carefully consider the implementation model, financing arrangements, health system integration, and changing health priorities in the communities. Conclusions This study examined challenges to, and opportunities for, the expansion and health system integration of community-based care in Laos. Further development and horizontal integration of community-based care remains a complex financing and governance challenge, although the renewed emphasis on primary care and the ongoing process of decentralisation provide a favourable policy environment in the country to sustain and potentially expand existing programmes

Defining the role of host biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of the severity of childhood pneumonia: a prospective cohort study

Reliable tools to inform outpatient management of childhood pneumonia in resource-limited settings are needed. We investigated the value added by biomarkers of the host infection response to the performance of the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (LqSOFA), for triage of children presenting with pneumonia to a primary care clinic in a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. 900 consecutive presentations of children aged ≤ 24 months meeting WHO pneumonia criteria were included. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We compared discrimination of a clinical risk score (LqSOFA) to markers of endothelial injury (Ang-1, Ang-2, sFlt-1), immune activation (CHI3L1, IP-10, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, sTNFR-1, sTREM-1), and inflammation (CRP, PCT), and quantified the net benefit of including biomarkers alongside LqSOFA. We evaluated the differential contribution of LqSOFA and host biomarkers to the diagnosis and prognosis of pneumonia severity. 49/900 (5.4%) presentations met the primary outcome. Discrimination of LqSOFA and Ang-2, the best performing biomarker, were comparable (AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76-0.88] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.87] respectively). Combining Ang-2 with LqSOFA improved discrimination (AUC 0.91; 95% CI 0.87-0.94; p < 0.001), and resulted in greater net benefit, with 10-30% fewer children who required oxygen supplementation incorrectly identified as safe for community-based management. Ang-2 had greater prognostic utility than LqSOFA to identify children requiring supplemental oxygen later in their illness course. Combining Ang-2 and LqSOFA could guide referrals of childhood pneumonia from resource-limited community settings. Further work on test development and integration into patient triage is required

Age-Related Clinical Spectrum of Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria and Predictors of Severity.

Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is increasingly reported in Southeast Asia, but prospective studies of its clinical spectrum in children and comparison with autochthonous human-only Plasmodium species are lacking. Methods: Over 3.5 years, we prospectively assessed patients of any age with molecularly-confirmed Plasmodium monoinfection presenting to 3 district hospitals in Sabah, Malaysia. Results: Of 481 knowlesi, 172 vivax, and 96 falciparum malaria cases enrolled, 44 (9%), 71 (41%), and 31 (32%) children aged ≤12 years. Median parasitemia was lower in knowlesi malaria (2480/μL [interquartile range, 538-8481/μL]) than in falciparum (9600/μL; P 15000/μL the best predictor (adjusted odds ratio, 16.1; negative predictive value, 98.5%; P 15000/μL

A prognostic model for critically ill children in locations with emerging critical care capacity

Objectives: To develop a clinical prediction model to risk stratify children admitted to PICUs in locations with limited resources, and compare performance of the model to nine existing pediatric severity scores. Design: Retrospective, single-center, cohort study. Setting: PICU of a pediatric hospital in Siem Reap, northern Cambodia. Patients: Children between 28 days and 16 years old admitted nonelectively to the PICU. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Clinical and laboratory data recorded at the time of PICU admission were collected. The primary outcome was death during PICU admission. One thousand five hundred fifty consecutive nonelective PICU admissions were included, of which 97 died (6.3%). Most existing severity scores achieved comparable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUCs], 0.71–0.76) but only three scores demonstrated moderate diagnostic utility for triaging admissions into high- and low-risk groups (positive likelihood ratios [PLRs], 2.65–2.97 and negative likelihood ratios [NLRs], 0.40–0.46). The newly derived model outperformed all existing severity scores (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80–0.88; p < 0.001). Using one particular threshold, the model classified 13.0% of admissions as high risk, among which probability of mortality was almost ten-fold greater than admissions triaged as low-risk (PLR, 5.75; 95% CI, 4.57–7.23 and NLR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.37–0.59). Decision curve analyses indicated that the model would be superior to all existing severity scores and could provide utility across the range of clinically plausible decision thresholds. Conclusions: Existing pediatric severity scores have limited potential as risk stratification tools in resource-constrained PICUs. If validated, our prediction model would be a readily implementable mechanism to support triage of critically ill children at admission to PICU and could provide value across a variety of contexts where resource prioritization is important

Host Biomarkers Reflect Prognosis in Patients Presenting With Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Prospective Cohort Study

Efficient resource allocation is essential for effective pandemic response. We measured host biomarkers in 420 patients presenting with moderate coronavirus disease 2019 and found that different biomarkers predict distinct clinical outcomes. Interleukin (IL)-1ra, IL-6, IL-10, and IL-8 exhibit dose-response relationships with subsequent disease progression and could potentially be useful for multiple use-cases

Transport Jc in Bulk Superconductors: A Practical Approach?

The characterisation of the critical current density of bulk high temperature superconductors is typically performed using magnetometry, which involves numerous assumptions including, significantly, that Jc within the sample is uniform. Unfortunately, magnetometry is particularly challenging to apply where a local measurement of Jc across a feature, such as a grain boundary, is desired. Although transport measurements appear to be an attractive alternative to magnetization, it is extremely challenging to reduce the cross-sectional area of a bulk sample sufficiently to achieve a sufficiently low critical current that can be generated by a practical current source. In the work described here, we present a technique that enables transport measurements to be performed on sections of bulk superconductors. Metallographic techniques and resin reinforcement were used to create an I-shaped sample of bulk superconductor from a section of Gd-Ba-Cu-O containing 15 wt % Ag2O. The resulting superconducting track had a cross-sectional area of 0.44 mm2. The sample was found to support a critical current of 110 A using a field criterion in the narrowed track region of 1 μV cm-1. We conclude, therefore, that it is possible to measure critical current densities in excess of 2.5 x 108 A m-2 in sections of a bulk superconductor.This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, via a Doctoral Training Award (grant number is EP/L504920/1) and funding from grant number EP/K02910X/1. This work was also supported by the Boeing Company. All data are provided in full in the results section of this paper.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TASC.2016.253764

Point-of-care C-reactive protein testing to reduce inappropriate use of antibiotics for non-severe acute respiratory infections in Vietnamese primary health care: a randomised controlled trial

Background Inappropriate antibiotic use for acute respiratory tract infections is common in primary health care, but distinguishing serious from self-limiting infections is diffi cult, particularly in low-resource settings. We assessed whether C-reactive protein point-of-care testing can safely reduce antibiotic use in patients with non-severe acute respiratory tract infections in Vietnam. Method We did a multicentre open-label randomised controlled trial in ten primary health-care centres in northern Vietnam. Patients aged 1–65 years with at least one focal and one systemic symptom of acute respiratory tract infection were assigned 1:1 to receive either C-reactive protein point-of-care testing or routine care, following which antibiotic prescribing decisions were made. Patients with severe acute respiratory tract infection were excluded. Enrolled patients were reassessed on day 3, 4, or 5, and on day 14 a structured telephone interview was done blind to the intervention. Randomised assignments were concealed from prescribers and patients but not masked as the test result was used to assist treatment decisions. The primary outcome was antibiotic use within 14 days of follow-up. All analyses were prespecifi ed in the protocol and the statistical analysis plan. All analyses were done on the intention-totreat population and the analysis of the primary endpoint was repeated in the per-protocol population. This trial is registered under number NCT01918579. Findings Between March 17, 2014, and July 3, 2015, 2037 patients (1028 children and 1009 adults) were enrolled and randomised. One adult patient withdrew immediately after randomisation. 1017 patients were assigned to receive C-reactive protein point-of-care testing, and 1019 patients were assigned to receive routine care. 115 patients in the C-reactive protein point-of-care group and 72 patients in the routine care group were excluded in the intention-to-treat analysis due to missing primary endpoint. The number of patients who used antibiotics within 14 days was 581 (64%) of 902 patients in the C-reactive protein group versus 738 (78%) of 947 patients in the control group (odds ratio [OR] 0·49, 95% CI 0·40–0·61; p<0·0001). Highly signifi cant diff erences were seen in both children and adults, with substantial heterogeneity of the intervention eff ect across the 10 sites (I²=84%, 95% CI 66–96). 140 patients in the C-reactive protein group and 137 patients in the routine care group missed the urine test on day 3, 4, or 5. Antibiotic activity in urine on day 3, 4, or 5 was found in 267 (30%) of 877 patients in the C-reactive protein group versus 314 (36%) of 882 patients in the routine treatment group (OR 0·78, 95% CI 0·63–0·95; p=0·015). Time to resolution of symptoms was similar in both groups. Adverse events were rare, with no deaths and a total of 14 hospital admissions (six in the C-reactive protein group and eight in the control group). Interpretation C-reactive protein point-of-care testing reduced antibiotic use for non-severe acute respiratory tract infection without compromising patients’ recovery in primary health care in Vietnam. Health-care providers might have become familiar with the clinical picture of low C-reactive protein, leading to reduction in antibiotic prescribing in both groups, but this would have led to a reduction in observed eff ect, rather than overestimation. Qualitative analysis is needed to address diff erences in context in order to implement this strategy to improve rational antibiotic use for patients with acute respiratory infection in low-income and middle-income countries