A qualitative assessment of natural and anthropogenic drivers of risk to sustainable livelihoods in the Indian Sundarban

In the Indian Sundarban, multiple attributes and interactions of natural hazards, exposure, and vulnerability pose severe threats to lives and livelihoods. Understanding the cause-and-effect relationships contributing to the risk of loss of sustainable livelihoods has become imperative but has not yet been holistically explored in a single study that provides a broader picture of all possible complex interactions. This study used the impact chain tool to holistically understand the risk that manifests as a result of interactions of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. The secondary literature and authors’ observations helped us structure the first draft of the impact chain, which was further developed and validated through fourteen gender-disaggregated interviews with key informants and delta dwellers. This validation process identified the complex interconnections contributing to risk as experienced by experts and delta dwellers, which is seldom reflected through exclusively quantitative data. A quantitative analysis of the qualitative data strongly indicated that tropical cyclones, rainfall variability, and storms are the dominant hazards that affect social–ecological vulnerability manifested through mangrove degradation, land loss due to erosion, and embankment breaching. Social vulnerability is caused by processes and factors that are either directly or indirectly influenced by natural hazards and social–ecological factors. Processes such as increasing seasonal male migration, uncertain agricultural income, and a lack of hazard-resistant housing exacerbates social vulnerability. Embankment breaching, the salinization of land and water, land loss due to erosion, mangrove degradation, land conversion, and groundwater abstraction were identified as the fundamental threats that can lead to a loss of sustainable livelihoods of the people if left unaddressed

Assessment and attribution of mangrove forest changes in the Indian Sundarbans from 2000 to 2020

The Indian Sundarbans, together with Bangladesh, comprise the largest mangrove forest in the world. Reclamation of the mangroves in this region ceased in the 1930s. However, they are still subject to adverse environmental influences, such as sediment starvation due to migration of the main river channels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta over the last few centuries, cyclone landfall, wave action from the Bay of Bengal—changing hydrology due to upstream water diversion—and the pervasive effects of relative sea-level rise. This study builds on earlier work to assess changes from 2000 to 2020 in mangrove extent, genus composition, and mangrove ‘health’ indicators, using various vegetation indices derived from Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery by performing maximum likelihood supervised classification. We show that about 110 km 2 of mangroves disappeared within the reserve forest due to erosion, and 81 km 2 were gained within the inhabited part of Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve (SBR) through plantation and regeneration. The gains are all outside the contiguous mangroves. However, they partially compensate for the losses of the contiguous mangroves in terms of carbon. Genus composition, analyzed by amalgamating data from published literature and ground-truthing surveys, shows change towards more salt-tolerant genus accompanied by a reduction in the prevalence of freshwater-loving Heiritiera, Nypa, and Sonneratia assemblages. Health indicators, such as the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), show a monotonic trend of deterioration over the last two decades, which is more pronounced in the sea-facing parts of the mangrove forests. An increase in salinity, a temperature rise, and rainfall reduction in the pre-monsoon and the post-monsoon periods appear to have led to such degradation. Collectively, these results show a decline in mangrove area and health, which poses an existential threat to the Indian Sundarbans in the long term, especially under scenarios of climate change and sea-level rise. Given its unique values, the policy process should acknowledge and address these threats

Reviews and Syntheses: Ocean acidification and its potential impacts on marine ecosystems

Ocean acidification, a complex phenomenon that lowers seawater pH, is the net outcome of several contributions. They include the dissolution of increasing atmospheric CO₂ that adds up with dissolved inorganic carbon (dissolved CO₂, H₂CO₃, HCO₃⁻, and CO₃²⁻) generated upon mineralization of primary producers (PP) and dissolved organic matter (DOM). The aquatic processes leading to inorganic carbon are substantially affected by increased DOM and nutrients via terrestrial runoff, acidic rainfall, increased PP and algal blooms, nitrification, denitrification, sulfate reduction, global warming (GW), and by atmospheric CO₂ itself through enhanced photosynthesis. They are consecutively associated with enhanced ocean acidification, hypoxia in acidified deeper seawater, pathogens, algal toxins, oxidative stress by reactive oxygen species, and thermal stress caused by longer stratification periods as an effect of GW. We discuss the mechanistic insights into the aforementioned processes and pH changes, with particular focus on processes taking place with different timescales (including the diurnal one) in surface and subsurface seawater. This review also discusses these collective influences to assess their potential detrimental effects to marine organisms, and of ecosystem processes and services. Our review of the effects operating in synergy with ocean acidification will provide a broad insight into the potential impact of acidification itself on biological processes. The foreseen danger to marine organisms by acidification is in fact expected to be amplified by several concurrent and interacting phenomena

Aligning the Global Delta Risk Index with SDG and SFDRR global frameworks to assess risk to socio-ecological systems in river deltas

River deltas globally are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards and are often over-exploited landforms. The Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) was developed to assess multi-hazard risk in river deltas and support decision-making in risk reduction interventions in delta regions. Disasters have significant impacts on the progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, despite the strong interlinkage between disaster risk reduction and sustainable development, global frameworks are still developed in isolation and actions to address them are delegated to different institutions. Greater alignment between frameworks would both simplify monitoring progress towards disaster risk reduction and sustainable development and increase capacity to address data gaps in relation to indicator-based assessments for both processes. This research aims at aligning the GDRI indicators with the SDGs and the Sendai Framework for Disaster and Risk Reduction (SFDRR). While the GDRI has a modular indicator library, the most relevant indicators for this research were selected through a delta-specific impact chain designed in consultation with experts, communities and stakeholders in three delta regions: the Red River and Mekong deltas in Vietnam and the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta in Bangladesh and India. We analyse how effectively the 143 indicators for the GDRI match (or not) the SDG and SFDRR global frameworks. We demonstrate the interconnections of the different drivers of risk to better inform risk management and in turn support delta-level interventions towards improved sustainability and resilience of these Asian mega-deltas

Blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves: what could be the scenario after a century?

The total blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves was evaluated and the probable future status after a century was predicted based on the recent trend of changes in the last 30 years and implementing a hybrid model of Markov Chain and Cellular automata. At present 36.24 Tg C and 54.95 Tg C are stored in the above-ground and below-ground compartments respectively resulting in total blue carbon stock of 91.19 Tg C. According to the prediction 15.88 Tg C would be lost from this region by the year 2115. The low saline species composition classes dominated mainly by Heritiera spp. accounts for the major portion of the carbon sock at present (45.60 Tg C), while the highly saline regions stores only 14.90 Tg C. The prediction shows that after a hundred years almost 22.42 Tg C would be lost from the low saline regions accompanied by an increase of 8.20 Tg C in the high saline regions dominated mainly by Excoecaria sp. and Avicennia spp. The net carbon loss would be due to both mangrove area loss (~ 510 km2) and change in species composition leading to 58.28 Tg of potential CO2 emission within the year 2115

Carbon Biogeochemistry of the Estuaries Adjoining the Indian Sundarbans Mangrove Ecosystem: A Review

The present study reviewed the carbon-biogeochemistry-related observations concerning CO2 and CH4 dynamics in the estuaries adjoining the Indian Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem. The review focused on the partial pressure of CO2 and CH4 [pCO2(water) and pCH4(water)] and air–water CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their physical, biogeochemical, and hydrological drivers. The riverine-freshwater-rich Hooghly estuary has always exhibited higher CO2 emissions than the marine-water-dominated Sundarbans estuaries. The mangrove sediment porewater and recirculated groundwater were rich in pCO2(water) and pCH4(water), enhancing their load in the adjacent estuaries. Freshwater-seawater admixing, photosynthetically active radiation, primary productivity, and porewater/groundwater input were the principal factors that regulated pCO2(water) and pCH4(water) and their fluxes. Higher chlorophyll-a concentrations, indicating higher primary production, led to the furnishing of more organic substrates that underwent anaerobic degradation to produce CH4 in the water column. The northern Bay of Bengal seawater had a high carbonate buffering capacity that reduced the pCO2(water) and water-to-air CO2 fluxes in the Sundarbans estuaries. Several authors traced the degradation of organic matter to DIC, mainly following the denitrification pathway (and pathways between aerobic respiration and carbonate dissolution). Overall, this review collated the significant findings on the carbon biogeochemistry of Sundarbans estuaries and discussed the areas that require attention in the future

The present state-of-the-art of blue carbon repository in India: a meta-analysis

Abstract The present study collated data on the Indian blue carbon repository (mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes) from peer-reviewed literature on carbon stock assessment. This meta-analysis indicated that the blue carbon ecosystems of India could have a collective carbon stock of 67.35 Tg C (mangroves, seagrass, and salt marsh accounting for 67 Tg C, 0.0630 Tg C, and 0.0049 Tg C, respectively). Several studies have ubiquitously measured the spatial extent of mangroves (~ 4991 km2) and seagrasses (~ 517 km2) in India; however, the salt marshes (290–1398 km2) have contradictions in estimates. The green payments against the blue carbon ecosystems of India can be as high as ~ 9.6 billion US $, whereas the social cost of carbon sequestered by these ecosystems can vary between 0.47 and 5.43 billion US$. The present study also identified the key research areas that require priority to minimize the uncertainties in blue carbon stock assessment to foster a robust ecosystem-based approach for climate change adaptation in the country. The study identified that less than half of the total mangrove habitats of India are yet to be sampled leaving a scope of substantial uncertainty in nationwide blue carbon estimates. The spatial extent of India’s salt marshes is another aspect that needs to be delineated with a higher confidence level

Air – water carbon dioxide exchange dynamics along the outer estuarine transition zone of Sundarban, northern Bay of Bengal, India

111-116Air-water CO2 flux was measured from the gradient of fCO2 (water) and fCO2 (air) in the Hooghly-Matla estuary to offshore transition zone. An average gas transfer velocity of 10.2 cm h-1 was evaluated in this region. fCO2 (air) ranged between 275.08 µatm to 459.07 µatm and fCO2 (water) varied from 149.1 µatm to 299.2 µatm. Wind velocity and bathymetry (depth) were observed to be the main controlling factors for exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and water phase. Seawater is found to have a greater influence at the marine end of the estuary. Apart from physical mixing in this freshwater-sea water interacting zone, the study of fCO2 and pH reflects a possible influence of biological activity as well. A maximum efflux rate of 24.56 µmol m-2 h-1 and influx rate of -41.61 µmol m-2 h-1 is determined during high wind velocity. The overall region surveyed was found to behave as a sink during the study period with an average (daytime) influx rate of -14.03 µmol m-2 h-1

Increase in fish catch after the cyclone Phailin in the northern Bay of Bengal lying adjacent to West Bengal coast – A case study

1897-1900The present paper reports an enhancement in fish catch in the northern Bay of Bengal lying adjacent to West Bengal coast after the occurrence of the cyclone Phailin on the 12th October, 2013. MODIS L3 monthly composite data for both chlorophyll and SST of two consecutive years 2012 and 2013 were investigated to see the aftereffects of cyclone on these two parameters. Generally, during a cyclone vertical mixing of the water column uplifts nutrients to mixed layer depth that results in the increase in chlorophyll-a and decrease in sea surface temperature (SST). In this study a substantial increase in mean chlorophyll was observed in October, 2013 in comparison to 2012 (no severe cyclone was reported in Orissa-West Bengal coast). However, no significant change in SST was observed. Mean chlorophyll concentration in October 2012 was 3.12 ± 1.97 mg m-3, however, in October, 2013 it increased to 4.50 ± 2.09 mg m-3. Following this event, a huge increase in fish catch and Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) were also observed. Mean CPUE in October 2012 and 2013 was observed as 9.04 ± 4.70 and 18.63 ± 11.54 respectively. This increase in CPUE after cyclone Phailin might be due to enhanced productivity