The Great Increase in Relative Volatility of Real Wages in the United States

This paper documents that over the past 25 years, aggregate hourly real wages in the United States have become substantially more volatile relative to output. We use micro-data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) to show that this increase in relative volatility is predominantly due to increases in the relative volatility of hourly wages across different groups of workers. Compositional changes, by contrast, account for at most 12% of the increase in relative wage volatility. Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, we show that the observed increase in relative wage volatility is unlikely to come from changes outside of the labor market (e.g. smaller exogenous shocks or more aggressive monetary policy). By contrast, increased flexibility in wage setting is capable of accounting for a large fraction of the observed increase in relative wage volatility. At the same time, increased wage flexibility generates a substantial decrease in the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations, which suggests a promising new explanation for the Great Moderation.Wage volatility, business cycles, great moderation, current population survey, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

The Carrot and the Stick: The Business Cycle Implications of Incentive Pay in the Labor Search Model

This paper considers a real business cycle model with labor search frictions where two types of incentive pay are explicitly introduced following the insights from the micro literature on performance pay (e.g. Lazear, 1986). While in both schemes workers and firms negotiate ahead of time-t information, the object of the negotiation is different. The first scheme is called an "efficiency wage," since it follows closely the intuition of the shirking model by Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), while the second is called a "performancepay" wage, since the negotiation occurs over a wage schedule that links the worker's wage to the worker's output. The key feature here is that the worker can then adjust the level of effort (i.e. performance) provided in any period. I simulate a shift toward performance-pay contracts as experienced by the U.S. labor market to assess whether it can account simultaneously for two documented business cycle phenomena: the increase in relative wage volatility and the Great Moderation. While the model yields higher wage volatility when performance pay is more pervasive in the economy, it produces higher volatility of output and higher procyclicality of wages, two results counterfactual to what the U.S. economy has experienced during the Great Moderation. These results pose a challenge to the idea that higher wage flexibility through an increase in performance-pay schemes can account for business cycle statistics observed over the past 30 years

Reconciling the differences in aggregate U.S. wage series

Average hourly real wage series from the Labor Productivity and Costs (LPC) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program have evolved very differently over the past decades. While the LPC wage has grown consistently over time and become markedly more volatile since the mid-1980s, the CES wage stagnated from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s and experienced a substantial drop in volatility since the mid- 1980s. These differences are due to the divergent evolution of average weekly earnings in the two data sets. Average weekly hours, by contrast, have evolved very similarly. Using information from the Current Population Survey and other publicly available data, we identify two principal sources for the divergent evolution of weekly earnings: differences in earnings concept (employer-paid supplements and irregular earnings of high-income individuals included in the LPC data but not in the CES data); and differences in worker coverage (all non-farm business workers for the LPC data versus production and nonsupervisory workers in private non-agricultural establishments for the CES data). The results have important implications for the appropriate choice of aggregate wage series in macroeconomic applications

La cyclicité des salaires réels agrégés aux États-Unis

Ce papier documente les caractéristiques cycliques divergentes des deux mesures de salaire réel agrégé les plus populaires aux États-Unis, soit le Average Hourly Earnings produit par le Bureau of Labor Statistics, et le salaire horaire moyen construit à l'aide des tables NIPA du Bureau of Economic Analysis. En analysant de plus près la mesure de salaire NIPA, on constate que le salaire réel agrégé aux États-Unis est acyclique et que sa volatilité relative par rapport au PIB augmente drastiquement après 1984. Nous montrons que cette augmentation de volatilité est due principalement à la hausse de la proportion de travailleurs avec plus d'habiletés (skilled) dans l'économie, ce type de travailleurs ayant une grande volatilité dans leurs salaires ainsi que dans leurs heures travaillées. Nous montrons aussi que la mesure agrégée de salaire provenant des tables NIPA est bien plus représentative de la population américaine que la mesure AHE, qui, quant à elle, n'a pas vu sa volatilité relative au PIB augmenter après 1984. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Salaires réels, Cycles économiques, Volatilité, Marché du travail

Vers un cinéma immatériel : réminiscences du cinématographique dans l’œuvre d'Olafur Eliasson

Il est désormais commun de reconnaître que le cinéma, aujourd’hui, s’émancipe de son dispositif médiatique traditionnel, adoptant maintes formes liées aux champs culturels qui l’accueillent : jeux vidéo, web, médias portatifs, etc. Toutefois, c’est peut-être le champ des arts visuels et médiatiques contemporains qui lui aura fait adopter, depuis la fin des années soixante, les formes les plus désincarnées, allant parfois jusqu’à le rendre méconnaissable. À cet effet, certaines œuvres sculpturales et installatives contemporaines uniquement composées de lumière et de vapeur semblent, par leurs moyens propres, bel et bien reprendre, tout en les mettant à l’épreuve, quelques caractéristiques du médium cinématographique. Basé sur ce constat, le présent mémoire vise à analyser, sur le plan esthétique, cette filiation potentielle entre le média-cinéma et ces œuvres au caractère immatériel. Pour ce faire, notre propos sera divisé en trois chapitres s’intéressant respectivement : 1) à l’éclatement médiatique du cinéma et à sa requalification vue par les théories intermédiales, 2) au processus d’évidement du cinéma – à la perte de ses images et de ses matériaux – dans les pratiques en arts visuels depuis une cinquantaine d’années, et 3) au corpus de l’artiste danois Olafur Eliasson, et plus spécialement à son œuvre Din Blinde Passager (2010), qui est intimement liée à notre problématique. Notre réflexion sera finalement, au long de ce parcours, principalement guidée par les approches esthétiques et philosophiques de Georges Didi-Huberman et de Jacques Rançière.It is now common to acknowledge that cinema, today, is emancipated from its traditional media figure, adopting various forms related to the cultural fields that welcome it : video games, web, portable medias, etc. However, it is perhaps the visual and media contemporary arts that have morphed it, since the late sixties, into the most disembodied forms, even sometimes beyond recognition. To this end, some contemporary sculptures and installations only composed of light and steam seem, by their own means, to have adopted, and simultaneously put to the test, some characteristics of the cinematographic medium. Based on this observation, this paper aims to analyze, on an aesthetic level, this relationship between media-cinema and the nature of these immaterial artworks. To do so, our analysis will be divided into three chapters focusing respectively on : 1) the expansion of the cinema and its requalification as seen by intermedial theories, 2) the cinema’s loss of its images and materials in some visual art practices since the last fifty years, and 3) the artistic corpus of Danish artist Olafur Eliasson, and more precisely his work entitled Din Blinde Passenger (2010), which is intimately related to our subject matter. Finally, our reflection will mainly be guided by the aesthetic and philosophical approaches of Georges Didi-Huberman and Jacques Rancière

The real-time properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates

We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Alternatively, revisions from purely statistical methods to estimate the gap have not experienced the same drop in magnitude. We then examine the usefulness of real-time gap estimates for forecasting inflation and find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real time rather than on final estimates of the gap

Review of contemporary sound installation practices in Québec

Continuing a trend of publications investigating sound art within a specific geographical context, this paper proposes an original view of the sound installation practice in Que´bec. This study is part of a research project aiming at building new theoretical and practical tools for the documentation of such artworks. In this paper we present the outcomes of the first phase and its connection with the bigger picture of the project, which is the questioning of the relevance of spatial audio recordings with six degrees of freedom (6DoF) for mediating the capture of knowledge relating to the sensory experience of a work. During the first phase, we developed a conceptual descriptive framework based on a mixed-methods approach, top-down and bottom-up, consisting in a systematic review of literature paralleled with a categorization of contemporary sound art production in Que´bec based on publicly available documentation. This process led to a formal and quantitative depiction of the Que´bec scene, which aims to guide both the selection of case studies for the next phases but also to be part of the conceptual tools for investigating the sensory experience of these works. This quantitative depiction of the scene will thus foster a qualitative investigation of the sensory experience of sound art installations and the knowledge that may be lost in standard written documentation practice with an original methodological framework

Life in mine tailings: microbial population structure across the bulk soil, rhizosphere, and roots of boreal species colonizing mine tailings in northwestern Québec

Abstract Purpose Mining activities have negative effects on soil characteristics and can result in low pH, high heavy metal content, and limited levels of essential nutrients. A tailings storage area located in northwestern Québec showed natural colonization by plants from the adjacent natural environment. The objective of the study was to determine the main edaphic parameters that structured microbial populations associated with the indigenous woody plants that had naturally colonized the site. Methods Microbial populations were studied in the bulk soil, the rhizosphere, and inside plant roots using Illumina sequencing, ordination analysis (i.e., redundancy analysis (RDA) and principal coordinates analysis (PCoA)), ternary plotting, and statistical analysis (MANOVA). Results The main variables that drove the microbial community patterns were plant species and the tailings pH. Indeed, the main bacterial classes were Gammaproteobacteria and Deltaproteobacteria in both the rhizosphere and root endosphere. Analysis revealed that some dominant operational taxonomic units (e.g., Pseudomonas sp., Acinetobacter sp., and Delftia sp.) were present in increased proportions in roots for each plant species under study. This study also revealed that many of the most abundant fungal genera (e.g., Claussenomyces, Eupenicillium, and Trichoderma) were more abundant in the rhizosphere than in the root endosphere. Conclusions This comprehensive study of the microbial community dynamics in the bulk soil, rhizosphere, and root endosphere of boreal trees and shrubs could be beneficial in facilitating the rehabilitation of disturbed ecosystems

Usefulness and limitation of dobutamine stress echocardiography to predict acute response to cardiac resynchronization therapy.

peer reviewedBackground: It has been hypothesized that a long-term response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) could correlate with myocardial viability in patients with left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Contractile reserve and viability in the region of the pacing lead have not been investigated in regard to acute response after CRT. Methods: Fifty-one consecutive patients with advanced heart failure, LV ejection fraction ≤ 35%, QRS duration > 120 ms, and intraventricular asynchronism ≥ 50 ms were prospectively included. The week before CRT implantation, the presence of viability was evaluated using dobutamine stress echocardiography. Acute responders were defined as a ≥15% increase in LV stroke volume. Results: The average of viable segments was 5.8 ± 1.9 in responders and 3.9 ± 3 in nonresponders (P = 0.03). Viability in the region of the pacing lead had an excellent sensitivity (96%), but a low specificity (56%) to predict acute response to CRT. Mitral regurgitation (MR) was reduced in 21 patients (84%) with acute response. The presence of MR was a poor predictor of response (sensibility 93% and specificity 17%). However, combining the presence of MR and viability in the region of the pacing lead yields a sensibility (89%) and a specificity (70%) to predict acute response to CRT. Conclusion: Myocardial viability is an important factor influencing acute hemodynamic response to CRT. In acute responders, significant MR reduction is frequent. The combined presence of MR and viability in the region of the pacing lead predicts acute response to CRT with the best accuracy