Evolution of leaf-form in land plants linked to atmospheric CO2 decline in the Late Palaeozoic era

The widespread appearance of megaphyll leaves, with their branched veins and planate form, did not occur until the close of the Devonian period at about 360 Myr ago. This happened about 40 Myr after simple leafless vascular plants first colonized the land in the Late Silurian/Early Devonian, but the reason for the slow emergence of this common feature of present-day plants is presently unresolved. Here we show, in a series of quantitative analyses using fossil leaf characters and biophysical principles, that the delay was causally linked with a 90% drop in atmospheric pCO2 during the Late Palaeozoic era. In contrast to simulations for a typical Early Devonian land plant, possessing few stomata on leafless stems, those for a planate leaf with the same stomatal characteristics indicate that it would have suffered lethal overheating, because of greater interception of solar energy and low transpiration. When planate leaves first appeared in the Late Devonian and subsequently diversified in the Carboniferous period, they possessed substantially higher stomatal densities. This observation is consistent with the effects of the pCO2 on stomatal development and suggests that the evolution of planate leaves could only have occurred after an increase in stomatal density, allowing higher transpiration rates that were sufficient to maintain cool and viable leaf temperatures

All-cause hospitalisation according to demographic group in people living with HIV in the current ART era: Recent findings from a cohort study in the UK

OBJECTIVE: We investigated differences in all-cause hospitalisation between key demographic groups among people with HIV in the UK in the current ART era. DESIGN/METHODS: We used data from the Royal Free HIV Cohort study between 2007 and 2018. Individuals were classified into five groups: men who have sex with men (MSM), Black African men who have sex with women (MSW), MSW of other ethnicity, Black African women and women of other ethnicity. We studied hospitalisations during the first year after HIV diagnosis (Analysis-A) separately from those more than one year after diagnosis (Analysis-B). In Analysis-A, time to first hospitalisation was assessed using Cox regression adjusted for age and diagnosis date. In Analysis-B, subsequent hospitalisation rate was assessed using Poisson regression, accounting for repeated hospitalisation within individuals, adjusted for age, calendar year, time since diagnosis. RESULTS: The hospitalisation rate was 30.7/100 person-years in the first year after diagnosis and 2.7/100 person-years subsequently; 52% and 13% hospitalisations respectively were AIDS-related. Compared to MSM, MSW and women were at much higher risk of hospitalisation during the first year [aHR (95%CI): 2.7 (1.7-4.3), 3.0 (2.0-4.4), 2.0 (1.3-2.9), 3.0 (2.0-4.5) for Black African MSW; other ethnicity MSW; Black African women; other ethnicity women respectively, Analysis-A] and remained at increased risk subsequently [corresponding aIRR (95% CI): 1.7 (1.2-2.4), 2.1 (1.5-2.8), 1.5 (1.1-1.9), 1.7 (1.2-2.3), Analysis-B]. CONCLUSIONS: In this setting with universal healthcare, substantial variation exists in hospitalisation risk across demographic groups, both in early and subsequent periods after HIV diagnosis, highlighting the need for targeted interventions

The interaction of fire and mankind:Introduction

Fire has been an important part of the Earth system for over 350 Myr. Humans evolved in this fiery world and are the only animals to have used and controlled fire. The interaction of mankind with fire is a complex one, with both positive and negative aspects. Humans have long used fire for heating, cooking, landscape management and agriculture, as well as for pyrotechnologies and in industrial processes over more recent centuries. Many landscapes need fire but population expansion into wildland areas creates a tension between different interest groups. Extinguishing wildfires may not always be the correct solution. A combination of factors, including the problem of invasive plants, landscape change, climate change, population growth, human health, economic, social and cultural attitudes that may be transnational make a re-evaluation of fire and mankind necessary. The Royal Society meeting on Fire and mankind was held to address these issues and the results of these deliberations are published in this volume. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’

Prospective association of social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors with subsequent hospitalisation over 6–7 year follow up in people living with HIV

Background: Predictors of hospitalisation in people with HIV (PLHIV) in the contemporary treatment era are not well understood. / Methods: This ASTRA sub-study used clinic data linkage and record review to determine occurrence of hospitalisations among 798 PLHIV from baseline questionnaire (February to December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Associations of baseline social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle, mental health, demographic and clinical factors with repeated all-cause hospitalisation from longitudinal data were investigated using Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Associations were also assessed in 461 individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load ≤50 copies/ml and CD4 count ≥500 cells/ µl. / Findings: Rate of hospitalisation was 5.8/100 person-years (95% CI: 5.1–6.5). Adjusted for age, demographic group and time with diagnosed HIV, the following social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors predicted hospitalisation: no stable partner (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.59; 95% CI=1.16–2.20 vs living with partner); having children (aHR=1.50; 1.08–2.10); non-employment (aHR=1.56; 1.07–2.27 for unemployment; aHR=2.39; 1.70–3.37 for sick/disabled vs employed); rented housing (aHR=1.72; 1.26–2.37 vs homeowner); not enough money for basic needs (aHR=1.82; 1.19–2.78 vs enough); current smoking (aHR=1.39; 1.02–1.91 vs never); recent injection-drug use (aHR=2.11; 1.30–3.43); anxiety symptoms (aHRs=1.39; 1.01–1.91, 2.06; 1.43–2.95 for mild and moderate vs none/minimal); depressive symptoms (aHRs=1.67; 1.17–2.38, 1.91; 1.30–2.78 for moderate and severe vs none/minimal); treated/untreated depression (aHRs=1.65; 1.03–2.64 for treated depression only, 1.87; 1.39–2.52 for depressive symptoms only; 1.53; 1.05–2.24; for treated depression and depressive symptoms, versus neither). Associations were broadly similar in those with controlled HIV and high CD4. / Interpretation: Social circumstance, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse lifestyle factors and poorer mental health are strong predictors of hospitalisation in PLHIV, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and care. / Funding: British HIV Association (BHIVA) Research Award (2017); SMR funded by a PhD fellowship from the Royal Free Charity

Phylogenetic and ecological correlates of pollen morphological diversity in a Neotropical rainforest

Morphology varies enormously across clades, and the morphology of a trait may reflect ecological function or the retention of ancestral features. We examine the tension between ecological and phylogenetic correlates of morphological diversity through a case study of pollen grains produced by angiosperms in Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI). Using a molecular phylogeny of 730 taxa, we demonstrate a statistically significant association between morphological and genetic distance for these plants. However, the relationship is non‐linear, and while close relatives share more morphological features than distant relatives, above a genetic distance of ~ 0.7 increasingly distant relatives are not more divergent in phenotype. The pollen grains of biotically pollinated and abiotically pollinated plants overlap in morphological space, but certain pollen morphotypes and individual morphological traits are unique to these pollination ecologies. Our data show that the pollen grains of biotically pollinated plants are significantly more morphologically diverse than those of abiotically pollinated plants

Ionospheric ion upwelling in the wake of flux transfer events at the dayside magnetopause

The effects of flux transfer events (FTE) on the dayside auroral ionosphere are studied, using a simple twin-vortex model of induced ionospheric plasma flow. It is shown that the predicted and observed velocities of these flows are sufficient to drive nonthermal plasma in the F region, not only within the newly opened flux tube of the FTE, but also on the closed, or "old" open, field lines around it. In fact, with the expected poleward neutral wind, the plasma is more highly nonthermal on the flanks of, but outside, the open flux tube: EISCAT observations indicate that plasma is indeed driven into nonthermal distributions in these regions. The nonthermal plasma is thereby subject to additional upforce due to the resulting ion temperature anisotropy and transient expansion due to Joule heating and also to ion accelerations associated with the FTE field aligned current system. Any upflows produced on closed field lines in the vicinity of the FTE are effectively bunched-up in the "wake" of the FTE. Observations from the AMPTE-UKS satellite at the magnetopause reveal ion upflows of energy ∼100 eV flowing out from the ionosphere on closed field lines which are only found in the wake of the FTE. Such flows are also only found shortly after two, out of all the FTEs observed by AMPTE-UKS. The outflow from the ionosphere is two orders of magnitude greater than predicted for the "classical" polar wind. It is shown that such ionospheric ion flows are only expected in association with FTEs on the magnetopause which are well removed from the sub-solar point-either towards dusk or, as in the UKS example discussed here, towards dawn. It is suggested that such ionospheric ions will only be observed if the center of the FTE open flux tube passes very close to the satellite. Consequently, we conclude the ion upflows presented here are probably driven by the second of two possible source FTEs and are observed at the satellite with a lag after the FTE which is less than their time-of-flight

Choosing a control intervention for a randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled clinical trials are performed to resolve uncertainty concerning comparator interventions. Appropriate acknowledgment of uncertainty enables the concurrent achievement of two goals : the acquisition of valuable scientific knowledge and an optimum treatment choice for the patient-participant. The ethical recruitment of patients requires the presence of clinical equipoise. This involves the appropriate choice of a control intervention, particularly when unapproved drugs or innovative interventions are being evaluated. DISCUSSION: We argue that the choice of a control intervention should be supported by a systematic review of the relevant literature and, where necessary, solicitation of the informed beliefs of clinical experts through formal surveys and publication of the proposed trial's protocol. SUMMARY: When clinical equipoise is present, physicians may confidently propose trial enrollment to their eligible patients as an act of therapeutic beneficence

Foliar Morphology And Anatomy Of The Gigantopterid Plant Delnortea Abbottiae, From The Lower Permian Of West Texas

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142005/1/ajb214202.pd

Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwaterforcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters