THE ACCURACY OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE DISCRIMINANT MODELS IN THE ITALIAN CONTEXT

This research is driven by the conclusions of Bellovary, Giacomino and Akers (2007), who stated at that time that future research, rather than aiming to develop new bankruptcy prediction models (to add to the considerable body) should focus more on the use of existing models. In this regard, we aimed to verify the accuracy of three bankruptcy prediction models, all based on multivariate discriminant analysis, in predicting the fate of firms operating in a different business context and all located in EmiliaRomagna region of Italy. The models tested were: Altman's Z'-score ( 1993) , Alberici's Z-score ( 1975) , and Bottani, Cipriani and Serao's discriminant function (2004). In particular, we conducted a two-phase analysis, the first to determine the capacity of the three models to predict the fate of firms known to have gone bankrupt between 2012 and 2014, and the second to distinguish between bankrupt and buoyant firms in a mixed sample from the same period. The analysis was performed according to ex-post reasoning, and the investigated models were tested on retrospective data pertaining to two distinct samples of firms of known status. Specifically, the first sample comprised firms that already met the condition the models were designed to detect, i.e., bankruptcy, and the second comprised equal numbers of operational and failed firms. The models were applied to the annual financial statements pertaining to the last five years of activity of bankrupt firms, and the most recent five years of activity of the solvent firms. The predictive efficacy of each model was determined by comparing the results furnished by each model with the real world status of the investigated firms. The results obtained were: 1) Altman's model, applied with a single cut-off, is well able to detect signs of failure and to discriminate between failing and flourishing firm, even if taken out of its original context and applied to in a heterogeneous sample of firms; 2) Altman's model appears to meet the demand for generalizability, and is therefore suitable for large-scale investigations

Does The Development Context Affect Bankruptcy Prediction Models’ General Accuracy? A Comparative Analysis Of Four Multivariate Discriminant Models In The Italian Context

This research starts from the work by Madonna and Cestari (2015) that aimed at assessing the usability of three bankruptcy prediction models applied in contexts other than the ones of their elaboration, in order to evaluate their generalizability and the possibility to apply them in wide-scale investigations. We took the cue from that study to assess the usability of four bankruptcy prediction models, when applied to a sample with characteristics other than the ones related to their elaboration. We aimed at verifying the predictive accuracy and the discriminant capacity of the four models, basing on the assumption that the performances displayed by bankruptcy prediction models are usually better when they are applied in contexts similar to the one of their elaboration. Given this premise, we hypothesized that Italian models should perform better than the American one. In order to verify this hypothesis, we tested the four multivariate discriminant models twice: the predictive accuracy was tested applying the models on a sample of firms gone bankrupt within 2012 and 2014; the discriminant capacity on a sample equally composed by bankrupt and operating firms. Both samples were composed by firms located in Italy and operating in recent years. Hence the sample provided and the context of application were different from the ones of the models‘ elaboration. The results show that even if the Italian models were elaborated basing on contexts more similar to the one of the present application, the best performance is reached by the American Altman’s Z‘-Score model

MANAGING IC IN AN OPERA HOUSE: THE CASE OF LA SCALA

In this paper we refer to IC as the dynamic and firm-specific system of intangible resources and activities based on knowledge, which, interacting with tangible resources, is able to generate competitive sustainable advantages, at the basis of the firm’s performance variations. We strongly believe that IC can provide a conceptual framework for managing Non-Profit Organizations (NPO), as their main inputs and outputs are intangible in nature. Inside the No – Profit area, extremely diversified sector, are traditionally included the cultural companies. These realities are themselves characterized by a great variety of typologies: museums, theatres, record labels, television companies, radio stations etc. In particular, validating the articulation of IC into the three subcategories of human capital, organizational capital and relational capital, we has the aim to decline these subcategories for the Opera Houses, underlining the specificities of the cultural organizations. In this contribution, starting from the above defined dimensions of IC we propose to understand if, in the case of the Teatroalla Scala, the Human Capital and the Relational Capital are managed “by antennae” (Donato, 2008). Furthermore we will deepen a possible evolutionary path of the measurement instruments and the model of Intellectual Capital Reporting that can be proposed to the managers of the theatre

MANAGING IC IN AN OPERA HOUSE: THE CASE OF LA SCALA

In this paper we refer to IC as the dynamic and firm-specific system of intangible resources and activities based on knowledge, which, interacting with tangible resources, is able to generate competitive sustainable advantages, at the basis of the firm’s performance variations. We strongly believe that IC can provide a conceptual framework for managing Non-Profit Organizations (NPO), as their main inputs and outputs are intangible in nature. Inside the No – Profit area, extremely diversified sector, are traditionally included the cultural companies. These realities are themselves characterized by a great variety of typologies: museums, theatres, record labels, television companies, radio stations etc. In particular, validating the articulation of IC into the three subcategories of human capital, organizational capital and relational capital, we has the aim to decline these subcategories for the Opera Houses, underlining the specificities of the cultural organizations. In this contribution, starting from the above defined dimensions of IC we propose to understand if, in the case of the Teatroalla Scala, the Human Capital and the Relational Capital are managed “by antennae” (Donato, 2008). Furthermore we will deepen a possible evolutionary path of the measurement instruments and the model of Intellectual Capital Reporting that can be proposed to the managers of the theatre

The Role of Gender and Education in Peer-to-peer Lending Activities: Evidence from a European Cross-country Study

The wide use of peer-to-peer lending platforms coupled with the Fintech global race has emphasized the role of social lending activities and their impact on consumers in recent years. Starting from the publicly available Bondora database, we analyse determinants of loan default during the 2013-2021 period by studying individual economic and social factors of borrowers. We apply a Logit model to estimate the ex-post probability of default on both original variables provided by the database and factors obtained by Principal Component Analysis. Results show the fundamental role of borrowers’ education in reducing the probability of default, as with financial awareness obtained by loan characteristics. In addition, gender plays an important role in determining loan default, with a particular focus on women's conditions within the family. Regarding financial inclusion and its social implications, our findings suggest different ways to improve financial literacy and promote peer-to-peer lending

The Role of Gender and Education in Peer-to-peer Lending Activities: Evidence from a European Cross-country Study

The wide use of peer-to-peer lending platforms coupled with the Fintech global race has emphasized the role of social lending activities and their impact on consumers in recent years. Starting from the publicly available Bondora database, we analyse determinants of loan default during the 2013-2021 period by studying individual economic and social factors of borrowers. We apply a Logit model to estimate the ex-post probability of default on both original variables provided by the database and factors obtained by Principal Component Analysis. Results show the fundamental role of borrowers’ education in reducing the probability of default, as with financial awareness obtained by loan characteristics. In addition, gender plays an important role in determining loan default, with a particular focus on women's conditions within the family. Regarding financial inclusion and its social implications, our findings suggest different ways to improve financial literacy and promote peer-to-peer lending

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Lending in Europe: Evaluating the Default Risk of Borrowers in the Context of Gender and Education

In recent years, the importance of social lending activities and their effects on consumers have been highlighted by the widespread use of peer-to-peer lending platforms and the global race in fintech. Our study focuses on factors that affect the likelihood that European borrowers on peer-to-peer lending platforms, which are currently based in Estonia, Finland, and Spain, will default on their loans. Starting with the publicly accessible Bondora database, we examine the different economic and social characteristics of the borrowers to analyze the factors that contributed to loan default between 2013 and 2021. We use a Logit model to calculate the ex-post probability of default for factors derived from Principal Component Analysis as well as the original variables supplied by the database. The results show how crucially important education is for borrowers in lowering the risk of default, along with loan characteristics like high debt levels, long loan terms, and high interest rates. In addition, gender plays an important role in determining loan default, with a particular focus on women's conditions within the family. Regarding financial inclusion and its social implications, our findings suggest different ways to improve financial literacy and promote peer-to-peer lending. Future research could develop on the findings by applying them to other lending platforms and countries

L'evoluzione dei sistemi informativo-contabili. L'Università di Ferrara fra il periodo pontificio e l'Unità d'Italia

none1L’Ateneo estense rappresenta oggi, come nel passato, una delle realtà più importanti della città; da sempre al centro di interessi culturali, politici, economici e religiosi. Dalla sua fondazione, avvenuta nel 1391, l’Istituzione è stata protagonista dell’alternarsi di momenti di grande prestigio e di profonda crisi, in gran parte dovuti alle dinamiche politiche che hanno caratterizzato la città ferrarese nel corso dei secoli. Questi cambiamenti hanno finito per influenzare inevitabilmente l’Istituzione nella governance, nell’assetto organizzativo e, infine, nelle prassi contabili adottate. L’Ottocento, in particolare, ha rappresentato, per la realtà indagata, un periodo di peculiare significatività. Gli eventi di quegli anni (la seconda dominazione pontificia, la riforma universitaria del 1824, l’Unità d’Italia), infatti, hanno generato importanti e repentini mutamenti di carattere amministrativo, tanto da rendere questo secolo un interessante momento di studio per la ricostruzione della storia dell’Università di Ferrara.La pubblicazione è stata sottoposta ad un processo di referaggio.noneCestari G.Cestari, Gret

Tecniche e strumenti evoluti per il controllo di gestione nelle piccole e medie imprese

Il volume intende soffermarsi sui principali strumenti di controllo di gestione, tradizionali ed innovativi, potenziamente fruibili dalle piccole e medie aziende italiane. Il lavoro, in particolare, si propone di fornire un supporto operativo al piccolo imprenditore e alle altre figure organizzative specializzate nelle attività di monitoraggio delle performance della gestione aziendale. Per tale ragione, la trattazione degli argomenti presenta un taglio prevalentemente tecnico-pratico. Il volume intende essere una guida per gli operatori aziendali, che intendono approcciare in modo pragmatico alla problematica del controllo di gestione, e per gli studenti universitari, quale supporto di studio per le tematiche inerenti al controllo di gestione. Il presente lavoro sintetizza i risultati di un progetto di ricerca supportato finanziariamente dall'Unione Industrale Pisana-Gruppo Giovani Imprenditori e della Camera di Commercio, Industria, Artigianato e Agricoltura di Pisa

L'Università di Ferrara. Evoluzione storica dei sistemi informativi nel XIX secolo

L'Università di Ferrara, uno degli atenei più antichi d'Italia, è stato ufficialmente istituito nel 1391 ad opera del Marchese Alberto V d'Este, su concessione di Papa Bonifacio IX. L'anno accademico fu inaugurato attivando tre corsi: Arti, Teologia e Giurisprudenza. In essi ebbero modo di insegnare, sin dagli albori, docenti di indiscussa fama, come Bartolomeo Saliceto, noto giurista, e Guarino Guarini da Verona, maestro del futuro Papa Pio II. L'ateneo ferrarese ha nei secoli conosciuto momenti di notevole fervore negli studi che contribuirono a definirne un ruolo centrale nella diffusione della conoscenza, in ambito sia nazionale che internazionale. Difatti, sin dai primi tempi della sua fondazione, fu frequentato non solo da italiani ma anche da molti studenti di provenienza estera (polacchi, tedeschi, francesi, inglesi, ungheresi, spagnoli, ecc.) attratti dagli insegnamenti degli illustri maestri ferraresi ed incentivati da importanti facilitazioni economiche. Il presente lavoro intende ricostruire, in chiave sistemica, l'evoluzione dei principali strumenti di informazione contabile utilizzati dall'istituzione ferrarese nel corso del XIX secolo. Si è ritenuto interessante soffermarsi su questo particolare periodo in quanto ricco di eventi storici significativi per la città di Ferrara, dai quali si ebbero importanti, e talora radicali, riflessi nelle attività e nella gestione amministrativa dell'ateneo locale. Tale finalità viene perseguita attraverso un processo di indagine di tipo deduttivo – induttivo. Nella prima fase (momento deduttivo) si procede alla disamina dei principali contributi bibliografici, con particolare attenzione alle opere sui sistemi di rendicontazione delle pubbliche amministrazioni del XIX secolo. A questo primo stadio si ritiene doveroso, sia pure in termini decisamente sintetici, dedicare la parte iniziale dell'elaborato per poter meglio inquadrare l'argomento di ricerca. La sezione di maggior respiro del lavoro è, invece, rivolta all'esposizione dei risultati della seconda fase (momento induttivo), vale a dire del caso studio in esame. Quest'ultimo step si sviluppa in relazione ad un'analisi empirica che prevede, innanzitutto, la raccolta e l'esame critico della documentazione contabile disponibile per il periodo storico studiato. Successivamente, procede con la sistematizzazione delle considerazioni tratte dalla ricerca, mettendo in luce gli elementi di forza e di debolezza, di innovazione e tradizionali, dei sistemi informativi dell'ateneo ferrarese per l'epoca