The Model for Early COvid-19 Recognition (MECOR) Score: A Proof-of-Concept for a Simple and Low-Cost Tool to Recognize a Possible Viral Etiology in Community-Acquired Pneumonia Patients during COVID-19 Outbreak

This study aims to assess the peripheral blood cell count "signature" of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to discriminate promptly between COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We designed a retrospective case-control study, enrolling 525 patients (283 COVID-19 and 242 with CAP). All patients had a fever and at least one of the following signs: cough, chest pain, or dyspnea. We excluded patients treated with immunosuppressants, steroids, or affected by diseases known to modify blood cell count. COVID-19 patients showed a significant reduction in white blood cells (neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils) and platelets. We studied these parameters univariately, combined the significant ones in a multivariate model (AUROC 0.86, Nagelkerke PSEUDO-R2 0.5, Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value 0.9) and examined its discriminative performance in an internally-randomized validation cohort (AUROC 0.84). The cut-off selected according to Youden's Index (-0.13) showed a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 72% in the training cohort, and a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 73% in the validation cohort. In addition, we determined the probability of having COVID-19 pneumonia for each Model for possible Early COvid-19 Recognition (MECOR) Score value. In conclusion, our model could provide a simple, rapid, and cheap tool for prompt COVID-19 diagnostic triage in patients with CAP. The actual effectiveness should be evaluated in further, prospective studies also involving COVID-19 patients with negative nasopharyngeal swabs

Tocilizumab for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The single-arm TOCIVID-19 prospective trial

BackgroundTocilizumab blocks pro-inflammatory activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6), involved in pathogenesis of pneumonia the most frequent cause of death in COVID-19 patients.MethodsA multicenter, single-arm, hypothesis-driven trial was planned, according to a phase 2 design, to study the effect of tocilizumab on lethality rates at 14 and 30 days (co-primary endpoints, a priori expected rates being 20 and 35%, respectively). A further prospective cohort of patients, consecutively enrolled after the first cohort was accomplished, was used as a secondary validation dataset. The two cohorts were evaluated jointly in an exploratory multivariable logistic regression model to assess prognostic variables on survival.ResultsIn the primary intention-to-treat (ITT) phase 2 population, 180/301 (59.8%) subjects received tocilizumab, and 67 deaths were observed overall. Lethality rates were equal to 18.4% (97.5% CI: 13.6-24.0, P=0.52) and 22.4% (97.5% CI: 17.2-28.3, P<0.001) at 14 and 30 days, respectively. Lethality rates were lower in the validation dataset, that included 920 patients. No signal of specific drug toxicity was reported. In the exploratory multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age and lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio negatively affected survival, while the concurrent use of steroids was associated with greater survival. A statistically significant interaction was found between tocilizumab and respiratory support, suggesting that tocilizumab might be more effective in patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline.ConclusionsTocilizumab reduced lethality rate at 30 days compared with null hypothesis, without significant toxicity. Possibly, this effect could be limited to patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline.Registration EudraCT (2020-001110-38); clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04317092)