The development and validation of a prognostic model that assists in the management of blunt chest wall trauma patients.

Introduction: The difficulties in the management of the blunt chest wall trauma patient in the Emergency Department due to the development o f late complications are well recognised in the literature. The first aim o f this study was to investigate the risk factors for the development o f complications following blunt chest wall trauma. Using these risk factors, the second aim was to develop and validate a prognostic model that can be used to assist in the management o f this patient group.M ethods: The risk factors for the development o f late complications following blunt chest wall trauma were investigated using a number of methodologies. These included a systematic review and meta-analysis, a questionnaire study and a retrospective observational study. Following identification o f the risk factors, a prognostic model was developed using multivariable logistic regression. This model was then externally validated in a prospective multi-centre study.Results: The systematic review, questionnaire study, retrospective study and development study results highlighted that the risk factors for the development of complications following blunt chest wall trauma were an increasing patient age, the existence o f chronic lung disease, an increasing number of rib fractures, the use of pre-injury anti-coagulants and a decreasing oxygen saturation level on presentation to the Emergency Department. These risk factors were included in the final model. Results of the validation study indicated an overall model accuracy o f 87%, a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity o f 97%. A concordance index o f 0.96 highlighted an excellent discriminatory ability o f the model.Conclusions: The prognostic model developed in this study demonstrated good predictive capabilities in the derivation sample and excellent discrimination in the validation sample. The model demonstrates clinical usefulness as it includes risk factors not normally considered in the management o f blunt chest wall trauma patients in the clinical setting

Prognostic prediction tools and clinician communication: a qualitative study of the effect of the STUMBL tool on clinical practice

Background In recent years, researchers and clinicians have been developing prognostic prediction tools (PPTs) as a way of identifying patients at risk of deterioration. The use of PPTs in the clinical environment not only impacts the risk of adverse outcomes for patients, but the use of these tools also effect clinical practice. Much attention has been paid to the clinical performance of PPTs. But more insight is needed on how the use of PPTs impacts clinical practice. The objective of this study was to map some of the ways in which PPTs effect clinical practice. The STUMBL (STUdy evaluating the impact of a prognostic model for Management of BLunt chest wall trauma patients) feasibility trial evaluated the use of a new prognostic prediction tool (PPT) to guide the management blunt chest wall trauma patients in the emergency departments (ED). The trial was undertaken between October 2016 and September 2018 and conducted at four sites in England and Wales. Nested within the feasibility trial was a qualitative study aimed at understanding how ED clinicians experienced and used the PPT. The qualitative methods included a focus group and telephone interviews with 9 ED clinicians. This study focused on participant perceptions of the feasibility and use of the STUMBL tool on clinical practice in the ED. Results Clinical practice is reshaped as a result of the introduction of the STUMBL PPT into the clinical environment. The PPT enhanced reflexive awareness of prognostic practice; facilitated communication between patients and professionals; helps to guide patient outcomes; and provides a common ground for clinician discussion on prognostication. Conclusions The qualitative data collected offered useful insights into the ways in which the tool changes clinical practice. This was a small study of the effect of one kind of PPT on clinical practice. Nevertheless, this study maps areas in which clinical practice is affected by the introduction of a PPT into the clinical environment. More research is needed to better understand these effects, and to understand how these tools become embedded in clinical practice over the longer term

Risk Factors for 1-Year Mortality and Hospital Utilization Patterns in Critical Care Survivors

OBJECTIVES: Clear understanding of the long-term consequences of critical care survivorship is essential. We investigated the care process and individual factors associated with long-term mortality among ICU survivors and explored hospital use in this group. DESIGN: Population-based data linkage study using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank. SETTING: All ICUs between 2006 and 2013 in Wales, United Kingdom. PATIENTS: We identified 40,631 patients discharged alive from Welsh adult ICUs. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Primary outcome was 365-day survival. The secondary outcomes were 30- and 90-day survival and hospital utilization in the 365 days following ICU discharge. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to compare survival rates. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine risk factors of mortality. Seven-thousand eight-hundred eighty-three patients (19.4%) died during the 1-year follow-up period. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age and comorbidities were significant determinants of long-term mortality. Expedited discharge due to ICU bed shortage was associated with higher risk. The rate of hospitalization in the year prior to the critical care admission was 28 hospitalized days/1,000 d; post critical care was 88 hospitalized days/1,000 d for those who were still alive; and 57 hospitalized days/1,000 d and 412 hospitalized days/1,000 d for those who died by the end of the study, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: One in five ICU survivors die within 1 year, with advanced age and comorbidity being significant predictors of outcome, leading to high resource use. Care process factors indicating high system stress were associated with increased risk. More detailed understanding is needed on the effects of the potentially modifiable factors to optimize service delivery and improve long-term outcomes of the critically ill

Management of the anticoagulated trauma patient in the emergency department: A survey of current practice in England and Wales

Objective The aim of this study was to investigate current management of the anticoagulated trauma patient in the emergency departments (EDs) in England and Wales. Methods A survey exploring management strategies for anticoagulated trauma patients presenting to the ED was developed with two patient scenarios concerning assessment of coagulation status, reversal of international normalised ratio (INR), management of hypotension and management strategies for each patient. Numerical data are presented as percentages of total respondents to that particular question. Results 106 respondents from 166 hospitals replied to the survey, with 24% of respondents working in a major trauma unit with a specialist neurosurgical unit. Variation was reported in the assessment and management strategies of the elderly anticoagulated poly-trauma patient described in scenario one. Variation was also evident in the responses between the neurosurgical and non-neurosurgical units for the headinjured, anticoagulated trauma patient in scenario two. Conclusion The results of this study highlight the similarities and variation in the management strategies used in the EDs in England and Wales for the elderly, anticoagulated trauma patient. The variations in practice reported may be due to the differences evident in the available guidelines for these patients

The Effect of Pre-Injury Anti-Platelet Therapy on the Development of Complications in Isolated Blunt Chest Wall Trauma: A Retrospective Study

INTRODUCTION: The difficulties in the management of the blunt chest wall trauma patient in the Emergency Department due to the development of late complications are well recognised in the literature. Pre-injury anti-platelet therapy has been previously investigated as a risk factor for poor outcomes following traumatic head injury, but not in the blunt chest wall trauma patient cohort. The aim of this study was to investigate pre-injury anti-platelet therapy as a risk factor for the development of complications in the recovery phase following blunt chest wall trauma. METHODS: A retrospective study was completed in which the medical notes were analysed of all blunt chest wall trauma patients presenting to a large trauma centre in Wales in 2012 and 2013. Using univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis, pre-injury platelet therapy was investigated as a risk factor for the development of complications following blunt chest wall trauma. Previously identified risk factors were included in the analysis to address the influence of confounding. RESULTS: A total of 1303 isolated blunt chest wall trauma patients presented to the ED in Morriston Hospital in 2012 and 2013 with complications recorded in 144 patients (11%). On multi-variable analysis, pre-injury anti-platelet therapy was found to be a significant risk factor for the development of complications following isolated blunt chest wall trauma (odds ratio: 16.9; 95% confidence intervals: 8.2-35.2). As in previous studies patient age, number of rib fractures, chronic lung disease and pre-injury anti-coagulant use were also found to be significant risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-injury anti-platelet therapy is being increasingly used as a first line treatment for a number of conditions and there is a concurrent increase in trauma in the elderly population. Pre-injury anti-platelet therapy should be considered as a risk factor for the development of complications by clinicians managing blunt chest wall trauma

Recovery, rehabilitation and follow-up services following critical illness: an updated UK national cross-sectional survey and progress report.

OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively update and survey the current provision of recovery, rehabilitation and follow-up services for adult critical care patients across the UK. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, self-administered, predominantly closed-question, electronic, online survey. SETTING: Institutions providing adult critical care services identified from national databases. PARTICIPANTS: Multiprofessional critical care clinicians delivering services at each site. RESULTS: Responses from 176 UK hospital sites were included (176/242, 72.7%). Inpatient recovery and follow-up services were present at 127/176 (72.2%) sites, adopting multiple formats of delivery and primarily delivered by nurses (n=115/127, 90.6%). Outpatient services ran at 130 sites (73.9%), predominantly as outpatient clinics. Most services (n=108/130, 83.1%) were co-delivered by two or more healthcare professionals, typically nurse/intensive care unit (ICU) physician (n=29/130, 22.3%) or nurse/ICU physician/physiotherapist (n=19/130, 14.6%) teams. Clinical psychology was most frequently lacking from inpatient or outpatient services. Lack of funding was consistently the primary barrier to service provision, with other barriers including logistical and service prioritisation factors indicating that infrastructure and profile for services remain inadequate. Posthospital discharge physical rehabilitation programmes were relatively few (n=31/176, 17.6%), but peer support services were available in nearly half of responding institutions (n=85/176, 48.3%). The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in either increasing, decreasing or reformatting service provision. Future plans for long-term service transformation focus on expansion of current, and establishment of new, outpatient services. CONCLUSION: Overall, these data demonstrate a proliferation of recovery, follow-up and rehabilitation services for critically ill adults in the past decade across the UK, although service gaps remain suggesting further work is required for guideline implementation. Findings can be used to enhance survivorship for critically ill adults, inform policymakers and commissioners, and provide comparative data and experiential insights for clinicians designing models of care in international healthcare jurisdictions

Predicting outcomes after blunt chest wall trauma: development and external validation of a new prognostic model. Crit Care 2014;18:R98

in press). Predicting outcomes after blunt chest wall trauma: development and external validation of a new prognostic model. Critical Care, 18(R98) http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1186/cc13873 _____________________________________________________________ This article is brought to you by Swansea University. Any person downloading material is agreeing to abide by the terms of the repository licence. Authors are personally responsible for adhering to publisher restrictions or conditions. When uploading content they are required to comply with their publisher agreement and the SHERPA RoMEO database to judge whether or not it is copyright safe to add this version of the paper to this repository. Abstract Introduction: Blunt chest wall trauma accounts for over 15% of all trauma admissions to Emergency Departments worldwide. Reported mortality rates vary between 4 and 60%. Management of this patient group is challenging as a result of the delayed on-set of complications. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model that can be used to assist in the management of blunt chest wall trauma. Methods: There were two distinct phases to the overall study; the development and the validation phases. In the first study phase, the prognostic model was developed through the retrospective analysis of all blunt chest wall trauma patients (n = 274) presenting to the Emergency Department of a regional trauma centre in Wales (2009 to 2011). Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the model and identify the significant predictors for the development of complications. The model's accuracy and predictive capabilities were assessed. In the second study phase, external validation of the model was completed in a multi-centre prospective study (n = 237) in 2012. The model's accuracy and predictive capabilities were re-assessed for the validation sample. A risk score was developed for use in the clinical setting. Results: Significant predictors of the development of complications were age, number of rib fractures, chronic lung disease, use of pre-injury anticoagulants and oxygen saturation levels. The final model demonstrated an excellent c-index of 0.96 (95% confidence intervals: 0.93 to 0.98). Conclusions: In our two phase study, we have developed and validated a prognostic model that can be used to assist in the management of blunt chest wall trauma patients. The final risk score provides the clinician with the probability of the development of complications for each individual patient