An integrated method to calculate an automobile's emissions throughout its life cycle

[EN] Although studies can be found in the literature that present emissions inventories associated with different types of automobiles, distinct technologies or various stages of their life cycles, they do not enable us to compare the environmental impact of the complete life cycle of two vehicles. This is because there is no valid emissions inventory for all types of automobiles that covers all the life cycle stages (the cradle to grave approach). This paper proposes a method to estimate the principal types of emissions throughout a vehicle's life cycle based on primary data (weight, year of manufacture, engine technology, fuel type used, etc.). The proposed method requires neither sophisticated life cycle assessment software nor knowledge of specific information on individual vehicles. The proposal has been validated by analyzing three different gasoline and diesel-fueled internal combustion engine vehicles and by considering a life span of 100,000 km.The translation of this work has been funded by the Language Center of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia as a part of the Mobility and Academic Internationalization of VLC - CAMPUS (International Campus of Excellence Program), of the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports.Viñoles Cebolla, R.; Bastante-Ceca, MJ.; Capuz-Rizo, SF. (2015). An integrated method to calculate an automobile's emissions throughout its life cycle. Energy. 83:125-136. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.006S1251368

Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States

One of the most promising strategies recommended for increasing energy security and for mitigating transportation sector emissions is to support alternative fuel technologies, including electric vehicles. However, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the market penetration of electric vehicles that must be accounted for in order to achieve the current market share goals. This paper aims to address these inherent uncertainties and to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the United States for the year 2030, using the developed Electric Vehicle Regional Market Penetration tool. First, considering their respective inherent uncertainties, the vehicle attributes are evaluated for different vehicle types, including internal combustion engine, gasoline hybrid, and three different electric vehicle types. In addition, an agent-based model is developed to identify the market shares of each of the studied vehicles. Finally, market share uncertainties are modeled using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis approach. The government subsidies play a vital role in the market adoption of electric vehicle and, when combined with the word-of-mouth effect, may achieve electric vehicle market share of up to 30% of new sales in 2030 on average, with all-electric vehicles having the highest market share among the electric vehicle options