Testing for contagion from oil and developed markets to emerging markets : an empirical analysis using systemic risk parameter

This paper analyses the volatility transmission from changes in prices in oil and developed stock markets to emerging markets. We test for volatility contagion from these two factors while allowing for interaction between them in order to account for diversification effects using the M-GARCH framework in a traditional two-factor market model. We find evidence that for all the periods under observation the covariance between developed markets and oil prices is negative. This negative covariance leads to a diversification effect, which lowers the impact of developed market prices on the systemic risk of emerging markets and gives support for the decoupling hypothesis concerning emerging market volatility during the beginning of the global financial crisis (GFC).https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4113-5521https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5986-4813https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=56395390800https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=5719646546

El VaR Histórico y las variaciones mensuales en el Indice de Precios al Consumidor (I.P.C.) en Colombia: Una propuesta metodológica para la medición de pérdidas esperadas en pesos de deudores hipotecarios con créditos en Unidades de Valor Real (U.V.R)

El objetivo principal de esta propuesta es enriquecer la información que se presenta al futuro deudor hipotecario, desde una perspectiva de riesgos financieros, en el momento de tomar la decisión con respecto a la financiación de su vivienda en créditos denominados en UVR. Finalmente, por medio de esta metodología se puede concluir que existe la necesidad de una mayor regulación, por parte de las entidades competentes, con relación a la calidad de información que actualmente los establecimientos de crédito proveen al deudor hipotecario en su proceso de decisión con respecto a su opción de financiación de vivienda en créditos denominados en UVR

A test of the efficient market hypothesis with regard to the exchange rates and the yield to maturity in Colombia

This article investigates the informational efficiency of the Colombian stock market with regard to the information contained in the exchange rates as well as the yield to maturity. Since the underlying data is non-normal with time-varying volatility we make use of tests that are based on bootstrap simulations with leverage adjustments in order to create reliable critical values. The results show that neither the exchange rates nor the yield to maturity is causing the stock price index. This is interpreted as empirical support for the efficient market hypothesis in that the Colombian stock market is with regard to these two main variables.https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5986-4813https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6212-1292https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4113-5521https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=57196465468https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=6603559832https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=5639539080

Does attending a public or private university make a difference for students in Colombia?

In this paper, we explore the difference in quality between public and private higher education institutions (HEIs) in Colombia. We test whether the differences in the national exam that measures student performance (Saber Pro) between public and private institutions is statistically significant by employing a propensity matching score approach based on common financial characteristics to avoid issues of selection bias. The results indicate that the difference in student performance between public and private institutions is positive and statistically significant. There is evidence that students in private HEIs perform better in most areas of the Saber Pro than their public counterparts. This performance difference can be attributed to the substantial differences in the patterns of teaching expenditures and income per student between public and private HEIs. The results are robust, since we controlled for statistical differences between private and public universities in terms of growth of revenue, number of undergraduates, number of full-time professors, and income per student by using propensity matching estimators for counterfactual samples.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4113-5521https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3958-3701https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5986-4813https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=56395390800https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=56424018700https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=5719646546

Does international arbitration affect economic growth in Latin America?

In this paper, we examine the effects of international arbitration on GDP growth in Latin American countries. After reviewing the literature on the importance of arbitration from an economic standpoint, and by using a panel regression that allows us to control for country effects, we found that international arbitration has a positive effect on economic growth. Finally, to check for robustness, we control for country effects, and we find that the most relevant control variables that affect GDP growth are the current account deficit, inflation, income inequality, and the average duration of an arbitrage process in a specific country.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4113-5521https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3958-3701https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=56395390800https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=56424018700https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=5720572309

Financial autarchy as contagion prevention : the case of colombian pension funds

Regulations restricting investment by pension funds in high-risk and foreign assets may quarantine member accounts from contagious transmissions during financial crises. We analyze contagion from U.S. equity markets to emerging market autarchic assets (Colombian private pension funds) during the recent financial crises. We test for volatility contagion between financial asset returns using a multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) framework, where the S&P 500 is the source of contagion to the autarchic asset. We find no evidence of volatility contagion during the 2007-9 crises, indicating protection due to regulated portfolio restrictions. However, there is evidence of contagion during the recent sovereign debt crisis.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4113-5521https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3462-0876https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=56395390800https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=821489050

Sin stocks and ESG scores : does the nature of your business really matter?

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance of sin stocks held by companies that operate in sectors with ethical implications (gaming, defence, adult entertainment, etc.). For this purpose, the model of choice was a panel based on the stocks of the global S&P 1200 index for the period between 2014 and 2018, for which the accounting data was available at the time of the study. The panel model accounted for different control variables and non-sin ESG performance. Having analysed its results, we have found that the ESG performance of sin stocks is positively correlated to future ESG performance, which was a surprise given that most of the analysed companies operate in sectors that are deemed as socially and ethically controversial. One hypothesized explanation for this is the phenomenon of “social cleaning”, when a company engages in ESG activities with the sole purpose of reducing reputational risk while trying to attract a wider base of socially aware investors. Therefore, we conclude that in order to avoid the risk of “social cleaning” ESG rating companies should give more weight to environmental and social factors rather than governance ones, especially in the case of sin stocks.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4113-5521https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=56395390800https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=5728882260

Determinants of profitability in the Shoe Industry sector in Colombia: A DEA approach (Borrador de administración No. 40)

EVA® (Valor Económico Agregado) es una medida de desempeño comúnmente utilizada para medir la rentabilidad real de una compañía por un periodo especifico de tiempo. El atractivo del EVA® radica en su facilidad de cálculo y en el hecho que mide la rentabilidad real de la firma como una función del costo de capital, la utilidad operacional después de impuestos y el capital invertido en esta. Es dentro de este contexto que se utilizo el Análisis Envolvente de Datos (DEA) para analizar la información financiera de 75 compañías del sector del calzado en Colombia. Esto con el propósito de determinar que factor de la fórmula del EVA® es el que más relevancia tiene en la maximización del EVA®. El resultado obtenido fue que para el periodo 2007-2006 el factor más relevante fue el capital invertido y para el año 2005-2004 fue la utilidad operacional después de impuestos

A Methodological Approach for the Valuation of Callable Bonds in Emerging Markets: The TGI example (Borrador de administración No. 9)

The purpose of this paper is to clarify some of the difficulties that a practitioner may find in implementing the binomial model for valuing a corporate bond with multiple embedded options in emerging markets. Especially, when faced with the dilemma of determining which should be the proxy variables for the risk-free rate, sovereign risk and country specific risk

Us Historical VaR a Reliable Tool for Relative Risk Measurement in the Colombian Stock Market?: An Empirical Analysus Using The Coefficient of Variation

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