Serum carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes as potential biomarkers of dietary intake and their relation with incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-Norfolk study.

BACKGROUND: Stable-isotope ratios of carbon (¹³C/¹²C, expressed as δ¹³C) and nitrogen (¹⁵N/¹⁴N, or δ¹⁵N) have been proposed as potential nutritional biomarkers to distinguish between meat, fish, and plant-based foods. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate dietary correlates of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N and examine the association of these biomarkers with incident type 2 diabetes in a prospective study. DESIGN: Serum δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N (‰) were measured by using isotope ratio mass spectrometry in a case-cohort study (n = 476 diabetes cases; n = 718 subcohort) nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk population-based cohort. We examined dietary (food-frequency questionnaire) correlates of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N in the subcohort. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. RESULTS: Mean (±SD) δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N were -22.8 ± 0.4‰ and 10.2 ± 0.4‰, respectively, and δ¹³C (r = 0.22) and δ¹⁵N (r = 0.20) were positively correlated (P < 0.001) with fish protein intake. Animal protein was not correlated with δ¹³C but was significantly correlated with δ¹⁵N (dairy protein: r = 0.11; meat protein: r = 0.09; terrestrial animal protein: r = 0.12, P ≤ 0.013). δ¹³C was inversely associated with diabetes in adjusted analyses (HR per tertile: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.83; P-trend < 0.001], whereas δ¹⁵N was positively associated (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.38; P-trend = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The isotope ratios δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N may both serve as potential biomarkers of fish protein intake, whereas only δ¹⁵N may reflect broader animal-source protein intake in a European population. The inverse association of δ¹³C but a positive association of δ¹⁵N with incident diabetes should be interpreted in the light of knowledge of dietary intake and may assist in identifying dietary components that are associated with health risks and benefits.The EPIC-Norfolk study is supported by program grants from the Medical Research Council UK and Cancer Research UK. MRC Epidemiology Unit core support is acknowledged (MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_UU_12015/5). TCO and CKK were supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant no. 074229/Z/04/Z).This version is the published accepted manuscript, distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 2.0. It can also be found on the publisher's website at: http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/early/2014/07/02/ajcn.113.068577.abstrac

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Life-long echoes: a critical analysis of the developmental origins of adult disease model

The hypothesis that there is a developmental component to subsequent adult disease initially arose from epidemiological findings relating birth size to either indices of disease risk or actual disease prevalence in later life. While components of the epidemiological analyses have been challenged, there is strong evidence that developmental factors contribute to the later risk of metabolic disease - including insulin resistance, obesity, and heart disease - as well as have a broader impact on osteoporosis, depression and schizophrenia. We suggest that disease risk is greater when there is a mismatch between the early developmental environment (i.e., the phase of developmental plasticity) versus that experienced in mature life (i.e., adulthood), and that nutritional influences are particularly important. It is also critical to distinguish between those factors acting during the developmental phase that disrupt development from those influences that are less extreme and act through regulated processes of epigenetic change. A model of the relationship between the developmental and mature environment is proposed and suggests interventional strategies that will vary in different population settings

Evaluation of Home Medication Reconciliation by Clinical Pharmacists for Adult and Pediatric Cystic Fibrosis Patients

Medication reconciliation is an important aspect of a patient&rsquo;s care process that is ideally performed by clinical pharmacists. Despite literature supporting this process in other patient populations, cystic fibrosis (CF) lacks research in this area. To address this, we designed a retrospective, multi-centered, non-controlled, cross-sectional study at four CF Foundation-accredited centers in the United States to evaluate the medication reconciliation process for adult and pediatric CF patients by documenting the number of home medications reconciled by clinical pharmacists and the number of patients with home medications that did not align with the current CF guidelines published in 2013. There were 105 adult patients and 72 pediatric patients included in the study analysis with a mean number of medications reconciled by clinical pharmacists of 17.4 (standard deviation (SD) 6.7) for adults and 13 (SD 4.6) for pediatric patients. The mean number of discrepancies from guidelines per patient was 1.61 (SD 1.2) for adult patients and 0.63 (SD 0.9) for pediatric patients. Pharmacists play an essential role in identifying and managing medication interactions and further research is necessary to investigate pharmacist impact on medication reconciliation

The developmental origins of adult disease

Epidemiological and clinical observations have led to the hypothesis that the risk of developing some chronic diseases in adulthood is influenced not only by genetic and adult lifestyle factors, but also by environmental factors acting in early life. These factors act through the processes of developmental plasticity and possibly epigenetic modification, and can be distinguished from developmental disruption. The concept of predictive adaptation has been developed to explain the relationship between early life events and the risk of later disease. At its base, the model suggests that a mismatch between fetal expectation of its postnatal environment and actual postnatal environment contribute to later adult disease risk. This mismatch is exacerbated, in part, by the phenomenon of 'maternal constraint' on fetal growth, which implicitly provides an upper limit of postnatal nutritional environment that humans have adapted for and is now frequently exceeded. These experimental, clinical and conceptual considerations have important implications for prevention and intervention in the current epidemic of childhood obesity and adult metabolic and cardiovascular disorders