The Silver Lining Methodology

The way in which Strategic planning is designed is different depending on the organization. For that reason, no standard procedures can be given to develop Strategic planning. However, the scenarios analysis method is used in any field or organization. We could define a scenario as a set of variables or events that describes a future situation. Additionally, the continuous irruption of new technologies invites us to carry out a revision of the old methodologies and procedures with the intention of starting an innovation process to make them more efficient. The challenge presented in this article consists of the use of the agents technology within a new methodological approach to envision future possible scenarios more quickly and more accurately than the classical methods we currently use

An Agent-Based Approach for Data Fusion in Homeland Security

This article presents an agent-based solution for data fusion in Homeland Security. Communication technology has been developed very fast in the last decades. We can get lots of data in milliseconds. Our current problem is to process such amounts of data in order to provide useful information. We have to focus our effort on developing intelligent information systems able to handle big amounts of data extracting or revealing relations among data and able to produce information easily understandable for the human user. That is the case of data fusion in tactical operations, especially in the field of defense and Homeland security. Our research is focused on obtaining a Multi-agent system able to inference future enemy’s actions or behaviors from data received from heterogeneous sensors

Standardized incidence ratios and risk factors for cancer in patients with systemic sclerosis: Data from the Spanish Scleroderma Registry (RESCLE)

Aim: Patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) are at increased risk of cancer, a growing cause of non-SSc-related death among these patients. We analyzed the increased cancer risk among Spanish patients with SSc using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and identified independent cancer risk factors in this population. Material and methods: Spanish Scleroderma Registry data were analyzed to determine the demographic characteristics of patients with SSc, and logistic regression was used to identify cancer risk factors. SIRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) relative to the general Spanish population were calculated. Results: Of 1930 patients with SSc, 206 had cancer, most commonly breast, lung, hematological, and colorectal cancers. Patients with SSc had increased risks of overall cancer (SIR 1.48, 95% CI 1.36-1.60; P < 0.001), and of lung (SIR 2.22, 95% CI 1.77-2.73; P < 0.001), breast (SIR 1.31, 95% CI 1.10-1.54; P = 0.003), and hematological (SIR 2.03, 95% CI 1.52-2.62; P < 0.001) cancers. Cancer was associated with older age at SSc onset (odds ratio [OR] 1.22, 95% CI 1.01-1.03; P < 0.001), the presence of primary biliary cholangitis (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.18-4.68; P = 0.015) and forced vital capacity <70% (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.24-2.70; P = 0.002). The presence of anticentromere antibodies lowered the risk of cancer (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.45-0.97; P = 0.036). Conclusions: Spanish patients with SSc had an increased cancer risk compared with the general population. Some characteristics, including specific autoantibodies, may be related to this increased risk

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Retos, avances y reflexiones transdisciplinares desde contextos educativos diversos

La publicación de las ponencias que conformaron el V Congreso Internacional de Educación de la Universidad Nacional de Educación, titulado Retos, avances y reflexiones transdisciplinares desde contextos educativos diversos, ofrece una visión comprensiva y multifacética de la educación contemporánea. A través de ocho ejes temáticos, entre los que se incluye la formación integral y el desarrollo profesional, la teoría y la práctica en la formación profesional docente, la relación entre sociedad y escuela, la gestión educativa y las tecnologías para la educación, esta recopilación busca contribuir al conocimiento académico sobre la educación y, al mismo tiempo, ser fuente de información e inspiración para educadores, investigadores y todas aquellas personas interesadas en el desarrollo educativo

The Silver Lining Methodology

The way in which Strategic planning is designed is different depending on the organization. For that reason, no standard procedures can be given to develop Strategic planning. However, the scenarios analysis method is used in any field or organization. We could define a scenario as a set of variables or events that describes a future situation. Additionally, the continuous irruption of new technologies invites us to carry out a revision of the old methodologies and procedures with the intention of starting an innovation process to make them more efficient. The challenge presented in this article consists of the use of the agents technology within a new methodological approach to envision future possible scenarios more quickly and more accurately than the classical methods we currently use

La metodología «Silver lining» para el desarrollo de ejercicios de prospectiva estratégica

Innovation consists of producing new and more effective solutions to old problems, thanks to the technological development. Nowadays, many prospective projects still use methods and techniques that belong to the past century, consequently many think-tanks are still solving old problems with old methods. In this article we are going to introduce an example of innovation in the field of the strategic analysis of future scenarios. The Silver lining methodology is designed to help strategic analysts envision and analyze the set of possible future scenarios that can influence upon the development of a strategic plan. Silver lining is an agil methodology that implement a metric to ensure the quality of prospective exercises as well as a fast obtention and elaboration of the data elicited from each human expert. We use Artificial Intelligence procedures to process human experts’ opinions and gathering all of them in the single answer of a group. The methodology has been validated by the performance of several prospective exercices led by the Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies.La innovación consiste en aportar nuevas soluciones a problemas antiguos, todo ello gracias al desarrollo tecnológico. Los métodos en los que se basan los estudios de prospectiva en la actualidad pertenecen al siglo pasado, por lo que muchos centros de pensamiento estratégico siguen resolviendo problemas antiguos con soluciones antiguas. En este artículo se presenta un claro ejemplo de innovación en los métodos para la realización de ejercicios de análisis estratégico de escenarios futuros. La metodología Silver lining está diseñada para servir de ayuda al analista-estratega a la hora de vislumbrar y analizar los posibles escenarios futuros a los que se pueda enfrentar un plan estratégico. Silver lining se caracteriza por ser una metodología ágil, que incorpora una métrica de calidad y que permite la rápida obtención y elaboración de los datos proporcionados por grupos de expertos mediante procedimentos de Inteligencia Artificial. La metodología ha sido validada mediante la realización de múltiples ejercicios de prospectiva liderados por el IEEE.es

Tecnología y prospectiva. Un reto hecho realidad

Solving the problems of the present includes the study of their impact and the analysis of what can happen in the future. The actions of the present will, without doubt, have consequences in the future. From its origins, the man has felt the need of knowing the future; the means to try to achieve it have been changing. In the last decades we have experienced a daily technological advance spiral. Though the trouble of foreseeing the future is common to any area, it deserves special attention in those fields with important social impacts.In this article is introduced the application of a new technology that allows to improve the classic prospective techniques with the purpose of processing the opinions of a group of experts with the aim of forecast possible future sceneries.The method and the tools used are being validated with real studio cases by the Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos.La resolución de los problemas del presente incluye el estudio de sus repercusiones y el análisis de lo que puede acontecer en el futuro. Las acciones del presente influirán sin ningún género de dudas en el mañana. Desde los orígenes de la humanidad, el hombre ha sentido la necesidad de conocer el futuro pero no siempre ha contado con los mismos medios para conseguirlo. La tecnología aplicable varía conforme avanza el tiempo. En las últimas décadas vivimos en una espiral de avance tecnológico casi diario. Aunque el problema de vislumbrar el futuro es común en cualquier área, requiere una especial atención en aquellos ámbitos que presentan importantes repercusiones sociales. En este artículo se presenta la aplicación de una nueva tecnología, que permite mejorar las técnicas clásicas de prospectiva con la intención de procesar las opiniones de un grupo de expertos con el objetivo de predecir posibles escenarios futuros. El método y las herramientas usados están siendo validados con casos de estudio reales por el Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos

An agent-based approach for data fusion in homeland security

This article presents an agent-based solution for data fusion in Homeland Security. Communication technology has been developed very fast in the last decades. We can get lots of data in milliseconds. Our current problem is to process such amounts of data in order to provide useful information. We have to focus our effort on developing intelligent information systems able to handle big amounts of data extracting or revealing relations among data and able to produce information easily understandable for the human user. That is the case of data fusion in tactical operations, especially in the field of defense and Homeland security. Our research is focused on obtaining a Multi-agent system able to inference future enemy’s actions or behaviors from data received from heterogeneous sensors