The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru

Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru. Methods Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 69 from any and from each of the following NCDs: cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated the contribution of each NCD to the change in the unconditional probability of dying from any of these NCDs between 2006 and 2016. Results The overall unconditional probability of dying improved for men (21.4%) and women (23.3%). Cancer accounted for 10.9% in men and 13.7% in women of the overall reduction; cardiovascular diseases also contributed substantially: 11.3% in men) and 9.8% in women. Consistently in men and women and across regions, diabetes moved in the opposite direction of the overall reduction in the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD. Diabetes contributed a rise in the unconditional probability of 3.6% in men and 2.1% in women. Conclusions Although the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD has decreased, diabetes would prevent Peru from meeting international targets. Policies are needed to prevent diabetes and to strengthen healthcare to avoid diabetes-related complications and delay mortality

Long-term and recent trends in hypertension awareness, treatment and control in twelve high-income countries: an analysis of 123 nationally representative surveys

Background: Antihypertensive medicines are effective in reducing adverse cardiovascular events. Our aim was to compare hypertension awareness, treatment and control, and how they have changed over time, in high-income countries. Methods: We used data on 526,336 participants aged 40-79 years in 123 national health examination surveys from 1976 to 2017 in twelve high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the USA. We calculated the percent of participants with hypertension – defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or being on pharmacological treatment for hypertension – who were aware of their condition, who were treated, and whose hypertension was controlled (i.e. lower than 140/90 mmHg). Findings: Canada, South Korea, Australia and the UK have the lowest prevalence of hypertension, and Finland the highest. In the 1980s and early 1990s, treatment rates were at most 40% and control rates were below 25% in most countries and age-sex groups. Over time, hypertension awareness and treatment increased and control rate improved in all twelve countries, with South Korea and Germany experiencing the largest improvements. Most of the increase occurred in the 1990s and early-mid 2000s, having plateaued since in most countries. Canada, Germany, South Korea and the USA have the highest rates of awareness, treatment and control, while Finland, Ireland, Japan and Spain the lowest. Even in the best performing countries, treatment coverage was at most 80% and control rates were below 70%. Interpretation: Hypertension awareness, treatment and control have improved substantially in high-income countries since the 1980s and 1990s. However, control rates have plateaued in the past decade, at levels lower than those in high-quality hypertension programmes. There is substantial variation across countries in the rates of hypertension diagnosis, treatment an

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1,018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean SBP, mean DBP and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-2016, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in south Asia and in central Asia, Middle East and north Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Derivation, internal validation, and recalibration of a cardiovascular risk score for Latin America and the Caribbean (Globorisk-LAC): A pooled analysis of cohort studies

Background Risk stratification is a cornerstone of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and a main strategy proposed to achieve global goals of reducing premature CVD deaths. There are no cardiovascular risk scores based on data from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and it is unknown how well risk scores based on European and North American cohorts represent true risk among LAC populations. Methods We developed a CVD (including coronary heart disease and stroke) risk score for fatal/non-fatal events using pooled data from 9 prospective cohorts with 21,378 participants and 1,202 events. We developed laboratory-based (systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking), and office-based (body mass index replaced total cholesterol and diabetes) models. We used Cox proportional hazards and held back a subset of participants to internally validate our models by estimating Harrell's C-statistic and calibration slopes. Findings The C-statistic for the laboratory-based model was 72% (70–74%), the calibration slope was 0.994 (0.934–1.055) among men and 0.852 (0.761–0.942) among women; for the office-based model the C-statistic was 71% (69–72%) and the calibration slope was 1.028 (0.980–1.076) among men and 0.811 (0.663–0.958) among women. In the pooled sample, using a 20% risk threshold, the laboratory-based model had sensitivity of 21.9% and specificity of 94.2%. Lowering the threshold to 10% increased sensitivity to 52.3% and reduced specificity to 78.7%. Interpretation The cardiovascular risk score herein developed had adequate discrimination and calibration. The Globorisk-LAC would be more appropriate for LAC than the current global or regional risk scores. This work provides a tool to strengthen risk-based cardiovascular prevention in LAC

Intermediate hyperglycaemia and 10-year mortality in resource-constrained settings: the PERU MIGRANT Study.

AIM: To determine whether intermediate hyperglycaemia, defined by fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c criteria, is associated with mortality in a 10-year cohort of people in a Latin American country. METHODS: Analysis of the PERU MIGRANT Study was conducted in three different population groups (rural, rural-to-urban migrant, and urban). The baseline assessment was conducted in 2007/2008, with follow-up assessment in 2018. The outcome was all-cause mortality, and the exposure was intermediate hyperglycaemia, using three definitions: (1) impaired fasting glucose, defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [fasting plasma glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/l (100-125 mg/dl)]; (2) intermediate hyperglycaemia defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [HbA1c levels 39-46 mmol/mol (5.7-6.4%)]; and (3) intermediate hyperglycaemia defined according to the International Expert Committee criteria [HbA1c levels 42-46 mmol/mol (6.0-6.4%)]. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean (sd) age of the study population was 47.8 (11.9) years and 52.5% of the cohort were women. The study cohort was divided into population groups as follows: 207 people (20.0%) in the rural population group, 583 (59.7%) in the rural-to-urban migrant group and 198 (20.3%) in the urban population group. The prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia was: 6%, 12.9% and 38.5% according to the American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose definition, the International Expert Committee HbA1c -based definition and the American Diabetes Association HbA1c -based definition, respectively, and the mortality rate after 10 years was 63/976 (7%). Intermediate hyperglycaemia was associated with all-cause mortality using the HbA1c -based definitions in the crude models [hazard ratios 2.82 (95% CI 1.59-4.99) according to the American Diabetes Association and 2.92 (95% CI 1.62-5.28) according to the International Expert Committee], whereas American Diabetes Association-defined impaired fasting glucose was not [hazard ratio 0.84 (95% CI 0.26-2.68)]. In the adjusted model, however, only the American Diabetes Association HbA1c -based definition was associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio 1.91 (95% CI 1.03-3.53)], whereas the International Expert Committee HbA1c -based and American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose-based definitions were not [hazard ratios 1.42 (95% CI 0.75-2.68) and 1.09 (95% CI 0.33-3.63), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: Intermediate hyperglycaemia defined using the American Diabetes Association HbA1c criteria was associated with an elevated mortality rate after 10 years in a cohort from Peru. HbA1c appears to be a factor associated with mortality in this Peruvian population

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups