Nowcasting Thunderstorms for Munich Airport

The successful demonstration and assessment of the DLR thunderstorm nowcasting algorithms at Munich Airport during two campaigns in the summers of 2010 and 2011 are described. The algorithms Cb-TRAM and Rad-TRAM, that detect, monitor, and forecast up to one hour (nowcast) thunderstorm cells from satellite and radar data, run in real time and provided new thunderstorm products for users at the airport. The products were presented on displays the users were already familiar with as well as on webpages designed by DLR. On the webpages, also additional information like measurements with DLR’s polarimetric radar and model forecasts was shown. Moreover, thunderstorm warnings were is-sued and sent via email to the users whenever a thunderstorm was detected in the terminal manoeu-vring area of the airport of Munich. The nowcasting skills of Rad-TRAM and Cb-TRAM are encouraging, especially for lead times up to 30 minutes, and the user feedback on the DLR thunderstorm products was very positive. The Rad-TRAM and Cb-TRAM products provide a good overview on the situation and its future development, and the thunderstorm warnings were very helpful for the collaborative decision making at the airport. However, some suggestions for improvements were made like the demand for nowcasts beyond one hour. This will be considered within the integrated weather forecast system, WxFUSION, which has been further developed during the campaigns

Parameterization of Convective Transport in a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model and Its Evaluation

This paper presents the revision and evaluation of the interface between the convective parameterization by Emanuel and Živkovic´-Rothman and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model “FLEXPART” based on meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The convection scheme relies on the ECMWF grid-scale temperature and humidity and provides a matrix necessary for the vertical convective particle displacement. The benefits of the revised interface relative to its previous version are presented. It is shown that, apart from minor fluctuations caused by the stochastic convective redistribution of the particles, the well-mixed criterion is fulfilled in simulations that include convection. Although for technical reasons the calculation of the displacement matrix differs somewhat between the forward and the backward simulations in time, the mean relative difference between the convective mass fluxes in forward and backward simulations is below 3% and can therefore be tolerated. A comparison of the convective mass fluxes and precipitation rates with those archived in the 40-yr ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-40) data reveals that the convection scheme in FLEXPART produces upward mass fluxes and precipitation rates that are generally smaller by about 25% than those from ERA-40. This result is interpreted as positive, because precipitation is known to be overestimated by the ECMWF model. Tracer transport simulations with and without convection are compared with surface and aircraft measurements from two tracer experiments and to 222Rn measurements from two aircraft campaigns. At the surface no substantial differences between the model runs with and without convection are found, but at higher altitudes the model runs with convection produced better agreement with the measurements in most of the cases and indifferent results in the others. However, for the tracer experiments only few measurements at higher altitudes are available, and for the aircraft campaigns the 222Rn emissions are highly uncertain. Other datasets better suitable for the validation of convective transport in models are not available. Thus, there is a clear need for reliable datasets suitable to validate vertical transport in models

Cb-TRAM: Tracking and monitoring severe convection from onset over rapid development to mature phase using multi-channel Meteosat-8 SEVIRI data

Cb-TRAM is a new fully automated tracking and nowcasting algorithm. Intense convective cells are detected, tracked and discriminated with respect to onset, rapid development, and mature phase. Finally, short range forecasts are provided. The detection is based on Meteosat-8 SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager) data from the broad band high resolution visible, infra-red 6.2 micrometer (water vapour), and the infra-red 10.8 micrometer channels. Areas of convection initiation, of rapid vertical development, and mature thunderstorm cells (cumulonimbus Cb) are identified. For the latter, tropopause temperature data from ECMWF operational model analyses is utilised as an adaptive detection criterion. The tracking is based on geographical overlap between current detections and first guess patterns of cells detected in preceeding time steps. The first guess patterns as well as the short range forecasts are obtained with the aid of a new image matching algorithm providing complete fields of approximate differential cloud motion. Based on the so called pyramid matcher an interpolation and extrapolation technique is presented which can also be used to generate synthetic intermediate data fields between two known fields as well as nowcasts of motion and development of detected areas. Examples of application are presented for thunderstorm tracks over the Mediterranean

Does repetitive task training improve functional activity after stroke? A Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis.

Repetitive task training resulted in modest improvement across a range of lower limb outcome measures, but not upper limb outcome measures. Training may be sufficient to have a small impact on activities of daily living. Interventions involving elements of repetition and task training are diverse and difficult to classify: the results presented are specific to trials where both elements are clearly present in the intervention, without major confounding by other potential mechanisms of action

Absence of the Filarial Endosymbiont Wolbachia in Seal Heartworm (Acanthocheilonema spirocauda) but Evidence of Ancient Lateral Gene Transfer

The symbiotic relationship of Wolbachia spp. was first observed in insects and subsequently in many parasitic filarial nematodes. This bacterium is believed to provide metabolic and developmental assistance to filarial parasitic nematodes, although the exact nature of this relationship remains to be fully elucidated. While Wolbachia is present in most filarial nematodes in the familyOnchocercidae, it is absent in several disparate species such as the human parasite Loa loa. All tested members of the genusAcanthocheilonema, such as Acanthocheilonema viteae, have been shown to lack Wolbachia. Consistent with this, we show thatWolbachia is absent from the seal heartworm (Acanthocheilonema spirocauda), but lateral gene transfer (LGT) of DNA sequences between Wolbachia and A. spirocauda has occurred, indicating a past evolutionary association. Seal heartworm is an important pathogen of phocid seals and understanding its basic biology is essential for conservation of the host. The findings presented here may allow for the development of future treatments or diagnostics for the disease and also aid in clarification of the complicated nematode–Wolbachia relationship

Microplastic surface retention and mobility on hiking trails

Hiking and trail running are a source of microplastic (MP) pollution on recreational trails in wilderness and conservation areas; however, the fate of MPs deposited on trails is poorly understood as MP mobility on such surfaces has not yet been examined. In this study, we simulated heavy rainfall (100 mm/h) on trail surfaces with existing MP pollution (in situ MPs) and spiked with 99 ± 2 rubber MPs (100–940 μm). Runoff was collected for 15 min and spiked and in situ MPs were quantified. Hydrological, erosional and microplastic responses were evaluated in relation to slope, bulk density, soil moisture and surface condition indicators, including amounts and types of surface cover and soil physical attributes. The MPs were largely immobile, with 85–100% of spiked MPs retained on trail surfaces. In situ MPs were detected in the trail runoff, with the majority being polyurethane, polypropylene and polyester. Microplastic movement was primarily influenced by hydrological effects, and analysis indicated the main explanatory variable was total runoff volume, followed by soil slaking. Trail sections with at least 15% herbaceous cover or a layer of loose alluvium had higher MP retention. Areas of resource accrual may be preferentially enriched, suggesting MPs from outdoor recreation may be concentrated on and adjacent to recreational trails. Microplastics deposited on trails may have long term implications for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in wilderness and conservation areas, particularly around the trail corridor