Multivariate syndromic surveillance for cattle diseases: Epidemic simulation and algorithm performance evaluation.

Multivariate Syndromic Surveillance (SyS) systems that simultaneously assess and combine information from different data sources are especially useful for strengthening surveillance systems for early detection of infectious disease epidemics. Despite the strong motivation for implementing multivariate SyS and there being numerous methods reported, the number of operational multivariate SyS systems in veterinary medicine is still very small. One possible reason is that assessing the performance of such surveillance systems remains challenging because field epidemic data are often unavailable. The objective of this study is to demonstrate a practical multivariate event detection method (directionally sensitive multivariate control charts) that can be easily applied in livestock disease SyS, using syndrome time series data from the Swiss cattle population as an example. We present a standardized method for simulating multivariate epidemics of different diseases using four diseases as examples: Bovine Virus Diarrhea (BVD), Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR), Bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SV). Two directional multivariate control chart algorithms, Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) and Multivariate Cumulative Sum (MCUSUM) were compared. The two algorithms were evaluated using 12 syndrome time series extracted from two Swiss national databases. The two algorithms were able to detect all simulated epidemics around 4.5 months after the start of the epidemic, with a specificity of 95%. However, the results varied depending on the algorithm and the disease. The MEWMA algorithm always detected epidemics earlier than the MCUSUM, and epidemics of IBR and SV were detected earlier than epidemics of BVD and BTV. Our results show that the two directional multivariate control charts are promising methods for combining information from multiple time series for early detection of subtle changes in time series from a population without producing an unreasonable amount of false alarms. The approach that we used for simulating multivariate epidemics is relatively easy to implement and could be used in other situations where real epidemic data are unavailable. We believe that our study results can support the implementation and assessment of multivariate SyS systems in animal health

Correcting for Sampling Problems in PISA and the Improvement in Portuguese Students’ Performance

PISA uses a complex sampling procedure based on stratification variables chosen by the participating countries’ authorities. In this paper we analyse the representativeness of the samples used in terms of the distribution of students per grade and track of studies for Portugal. For the three exam years under analysis (2006, 2009 and 2012) a meaningful bias between the effective student distribution and PISA samples was found. We provide recalculated PISA scores that correct for the sample bias. We find that from 2009 to 2012, contrary to the stagnation denoted in the PISA results, the recalculated scores show an improvement in the Portuguese student performance. We also decompose the evolution of the scores into two effects: (i) change in the student population distribution by grade and track, and type of school; and (ii) evolution in the performance of each type of student. The results show that for the whole period the evolution of the students’ scores is the main driver of the increase in PISA results, with the change in the population structure playing a weaker role. Although we focus on the Portuguese case, similar problems of representativeness are expected to arise in other countries with high retention rates, affecting the grade of study of 15-year-olds.N/

Exposure assessment of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases/AmpC beta-lactamases-producing Escherichia coli in meat in Denmark

INTRODUCTION Extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) and AmpC beta-lactamases (AmpC) are of concern for veterinary and public health because of their ability to cause treatment failure due to antimicrobial resistance in Enterobacteriaceae. The main objective was to assess the relative contribution (RC) of different types of meat to the exposure of consumers to ESBL/AmpC and their potential importance for human infections in Denmark. MATERIAL AND METHODS The prevalence of each genotype of ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli in imported and nationally produced broiler meat, pork and beef was weighted by the meat consumption patterns. Data originated from the Danish surveillance program for antibiotic use and antibiotic resistance (DANMAP) from 2009 to 2011. DANMAP also provided data about human ESBL/AmpC cases in 2011, which were used to assess a possible genotype overlap. Uncertainty about the occurrence of ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli in meat was assessed by inspecting beta distributions given the available data of the genotypes in each type of meat. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Broiler meat represented the largest part (83.8%) of the estimated ESBL/AmpC-contaminated pool of meat compared to pork (12.5%) and beef (3.7%). CMY-2 was the genotype with the highest RC to human exposure (58.3%). However, this genotype is rarely found in human infections in Denmark. CONCLUSION The overlap between ESBL/AmpC genotypes in meat and human E. coli infections was limited. This suggests that meat might constitute a less important source of ESBL/AmpC exposure to humans in Denmark than previously thought - maybe because the use of cephalosporins is restricted in cattle and banned in poultry and pigs. Nonetheless, more detailed surveillance data are required to determine the contribution of meat compared to other sources, such as travelling, pets, water resources, community and hospitals in the pursuit of a full source attribution model

The Impact of Ischemia Assessed by Magnetic Resonance on Functional, Arrhythmic, and Imaging Features of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Funding: LL is supported by an MRC UK clinical academic partnership award (CARP) MR/T005181/1.publishersversionpublishe

Remdesivir and corticosteroids in the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients

okCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic infection caused by the newly discovered severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Remdesivir (RDV) and corticosteroids are used mainly in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure. The main objective of the study was to assess the effectiveness of remdesivir with and without corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 patients. We conducted a prospective observational study, including adult patients consecutively hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 and acute respiratory failure. Patients were divided according to treatment strategy: RDV alone versus RDV with corticosteroids. The primary outcome was the time to recovery in both treatment groups. We included 374 COVID-19 adult patients, 184 were treated with RDV, and 190 were treated with RDV and corticosteroid. Patients in the RDV group had a shorter time to recovery in comparison with patients in the RDV plus corticosteroids group at 28 days after admission [11 vs. 16 days (95% confidence Interval 9.7-12.8; 14.9-17.1; p = .016)]. Patients treated with RDV alone had a shorter length of hospital stay. The use of corticosteroids as adjunctive therapy of RDV was not associated with improvement in mortality of COVID-19 patients.publishersversionpublishe

a preliminary report

© European Association of Hospital Pharmacists 2021. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.OBJECTIVES: Since the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pressure to minimise its impact on public health has led to the implementation of different therapeutic strategies, the efficacy of which for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was unknown at the time. Remdesivir (REM) was granted its first conditional marketing authorisation in the EU in June 2020. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) and local health authorities all across the EU have since strongly recommended the implementation of pharmacovigilance activities aimed at further evaluating the safety of this new drug. The objective of this study was to evaluate adverse drug reactions (ADRs) attributed to either REM or hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Ocidental, a Portuguese hospital centre based in Lisbon. We present the preliminary results reporting plausible adverse effects of either HCQ or REM. METHODS: An observational cohort study was carried out between 16 March and 15 August 2020. Participants were divided into two cohorts: those prescribed an HCQ regimen, and those prescribed REM. Suspected ADRs were identified using an active monitoring model and reported to the Portuguese Pharmacovigilance System through its online notification tool. The ADR cumulative incidence was compared between the two cohorts. RESULTS: The study included 149 patients, of whom 101 were treated with HCQ and the remaining 48 with REM. The baseline characteristics were similar between the two cohorts. A total of 102 ADRs were identified during the study period, with a greater incidence in the HCQ cohort compared with the REM cohort (47.5% vs 12.5%; p<0.001). Causality was assessed in 81 ADRs, all of which were considered possible. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world data are crucial to further establish the safety profile for REM. HCQ is no longer recommended for the treatment of COVID-19.publishersversionpublishe

Does permanent atrial fibrillation modify response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in heart failure patients?

Introduction: The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) documented in heart failure (HF) may be influenced by atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to compare CRT response in patients in AF and in sinus rhythm (SR). Methods: We prospectively studied 101 HF patients treated by CRT. Rates of clinical, echocardiographic and functional response, baseline NYHA class and variation, left ventricular ejection fraction, volumes and mass, atrial volumes, cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) duration (CPET dur), peak oxygen consumption (VO2max) and ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO2 slope) were compared between AF and SR patients, before and at three and six months after implantation of a CRT device. Results: All patients achieved ≥95% biventricular pacing, and 5.7% underwent atrioventricular junction ablation. Patients were divided into AF (n=35) and SR (n=66) groups; AF patients were older, with larger atrial volumes and lower CPET dur and VO2max before CRT. The percentages of clinical and echocardiographic responders were similar in the two groups, but there were more functional responders in the AF group (71% vs. 39% in SR patients; p=0.012). In SR patients, left atrial volume and left ventricular mass were significantly reduced (p=0.015 and p=0.021, respectively), whereas in AF patients, CPET dur (p=0.003) and VO2max (p=0.001; 0.083 age-adjusted) showed larger increases. Conclusion: Clinical and echocardiographic response rates were similar in SR and AF patients, with a better functional response in AF. Improvement in left ventricular function and volumes occurred in both groups, but left ventricular mass reduction and left atrial reverse remodeling were seen exclusively in SR patients (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02413151; FCT code: PTDC/DES/120249/2010).publishersversionpublishe

Sepsis due to community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in southern Brazil

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was initially described as a typical microorganism acquired in nosocomial infections. However, over recent years, community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus has been a cause of skin and soft-tissue infections. Serious infections such as pneumonia and sepsis can also occur. This report describes a case of sepsis in a child that was complicated by pneumonia secondary to soft tissue lesions that were due to community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in southern Brazil. The patient was attended at the Emergency Unit with a history of injury caused by lower-limb trauma that evolved to cellulitis, pneumonia and sepsis.Staphylococcus aureus resistente à meticilina foi inicialmente descrito como um típico microrganismo adquirido em infecções nosocomiais. No entanto, nos últimos anos Staphylococcus aureus resistente à meticilina adquirido na comunidade é causa de infecções de pele e tecidos moles, mas infecções graves como pneumonia e sepse podem ocorrer. Este relato descreve um caso de sepse em criança, complicado com pneumonia secundária a lesão em partes moles por Staphylococcus aureus resistente à meticilina adquirido na comunidade no Sul do Brasil. O paciente foi atendido em Unidade de Emergência com história de ferimento provocado por trauma em membro inferior que evoluiu para celulite, pneumonia e sepse.Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre Laboratório de Cocos Gram-positivosSanta Casa de Misericórdia de Porto AlegreUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Laboratório Especial de Microbiologia ClínicaUNIFESP, Laboratório Especial de Microbiologia ClínicaSciEL