Vehicle taxes as a climate policy instrument: econometric evidence from Spain

We study the local distortionary effects of notches in Spain’s CO2-based vehicle registration tax on the distribution of new car CO2 performance. These effects are the smoking gun of carmaker strategic behaviour and affect in turn tax revenue and CO2 emissions. Using model-level data on all car registrations in Spain 2010-2020, we apply the bunching approach to the three thresholds of the tax scheme: 120, 160, and 200 gCO2/km. We find that the tax notches strongly affected market outcomes, resulting in the sale of about 388,000 more cars (overall) at or just below the thresholds compared to the respective counterfactuals without the thresholds. This translates into about €335 million of foregone tax revenue and only very limited extra abatement of CO2 emissions. Over 90-95% of all estimated bunching took place at the first threshold (120 gCO2/km). Over 60% of all estimated bunching took place before 2015. Bunching diminished over time, which reflects diminished effectiveness of the tax in both reducing CO2 emissions and generating revenue. Taking the interactions with both EU vehicle emission standards and similar CO2-related policies in other Member States into consideration is important for interpreting these results

Goodbye Hartmann trial: a prospective, international, multicenter, observational study on the current use of a surgical procedure developed a century ago

Background: Literature suggests colonic resection and primary anastomosis (RPA) instead of Hartmann's procedure (HP) for the treatment of left-sided colonic emergencies. We aim to evaluate the surgical options globally used to treat patients with acute left-sided colonic emergencies and the factors that leading to the choice of treatment, comparing HP and RPA. Methods: This is a prospective, international, multicenter, observational study registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. A total 1215 patients with left-sided colonic emergencies who required surgery were included from 204 centers during the period of March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020. with a 1-year follow-up. Results: 564 patients (43.1%) were females. The mean age was 65.9 ± 15.6 years. HP was performed in 697 (57.3%) patients and RPA in 384 (31.6%) cases. Complicated acute diverticulitis was the most common cause of left-sided colonic emergencies (40.2%), followed by colorectal malignancy (36.6%). Severe complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3b) were higher in the HP group (P < 0.001). 30-day mortality was higher in HP patients (13.7%), especially in case of bowel perforation and diffused peritonitis. 1-year follow-up showed no differences on ostomy reversal rate between HP and RPA. (P = 0.127). A backward likelihood logistic regression model showed that RPA was preferred in younger patients, having low ASA score (≤ 3), in case of large bowel obstruction, absence of colonic ischemia, longer time from admission to surgery, operating early at the day working hours, by a surgeon who performed more than 50 colorectal resections. Conclusions: After 100 years since the first Hartmann's procedure, HP remains the most common treatment for left-sided colorectal emergencies. Treatment's choice depends on patient characteristics, the time of surgery and the experience of the surgeon. RPA should be considered as the gold standard for surgery, with HP being an exception

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. VIII. Physical Interpretation of the Polarized Ring

In a companion paper, we present the first spatially resolved polarized image of Sagittarius A* on event horizon scales, captured using the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometric array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here we interpret this image using both simple analytic models and numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. The large spatially resolved linear polarization fraction (24%–28%, peaking at ∼40%) is the most stringent constraint on parameter space, disfavoring models that are too Faraday depolarized. Similar to our studies of M87*, polarimetric constraints reinforce a preference for GRMHD models with dynamically important magnetic fields. Although the spiral morphology of the polarization pattern is known to constrain the spin and inclination angle, the time-variable rotation measure (RM) of Sgr A* (equivalent to ≈46° ± 12° rotation at 228 GHz) limits its present utility as a constraint. If we attribute the RM to internal Faraday rotation, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be counterclockwise, contrary to inferences based on historical polarized flares, and no model satisfies all polarimetric and total intensity constraints. On the other hand, if we attribute the mean RM to an external Faraday screen, then the motion of accreting material is inferred to be clockwise, and one model passes all applied total intensity and polarimetric constraints: a model with strong magnetic fields, a spin parameter of 0.94, and an inclination of 150°. We discuss how future 345 GHz and dynamical imaging will mitigate our present uncertainties and provide additional constraints on the black hole and its accretion flow

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M 87

In April 2019, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration reported the first-ever event-horizon-scale images of a black hole, resolving the central compact radio source in the giant elliptical galaxy M 87. These images reveal a ring with a southerly brightness distribution and a diameter of ∼42 μas, consistent with the predicted size and shape of a shadow produced by the gravitationally lensed emission around a supermassive black hole. These results were obtained as part of the April 2017 EHT observation campaign, using a global very long baseline interferometric radio array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here, we present results based on the second EHT observing campaign, taking place in April 2018 with an improved array, wider frequency coverage, and increased bandwidth. In particular, the additional baselines provided by the Greenland telescope improved the coverage of the array. Multiyear EHT observations provide independent snapshots of the horizon-scale emission, allowing us to confirm the persistence, size, and shape of the black hole shadow, and constrain the intrinsic structural variability of the accretion flow. We have confirmed the presence of an asymmetric ring structure, brighter in the southwest, with a median diameter of 43.3−3.1+1.5 μas. The diameter of the 2018 ring is remarkably consistent with the diameter obtained from the previous 2017 observations. On the other hand, the position angle of the brightness asymmetry in 2018 is shifted by about 30° relative to 2017. The perennial persistence of the ring and its diameter robustly support the interpretation that the ring is formed by lensed emission surrounding a Kerr black hole with a mass ∼6.5 × 109 M⊙. The significant change in the ring brightness asymmetry implies a spin axis that is more consistent with the position angle of the large-scale jet

Two-particle Bose-Einstein correlations and their Lévy parameters in PbPb collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_\mathrm{NN}} = 5.02 TeV

Two-particle Bose-Einstein momentum correlation functions are studied for charged-hadron pairs in lead-lead collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_\mathrm{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The data sample, containing 4.27$\times10^{9}$ minimum bias events corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.607 nb$^{-1}$, was collected by the CMS experiment in 2018. The experimental results are discussed in terms of a L\'evy-type source distribution. The parameters of this distribution are extracted as functions of particle pair average transverse mass and collision centrality. These parameters include the L\'evy index or shape parameter ($\alpha$), the L\'evy scale parameter ($R$), and the correlation strength parameter ($\lambda$). The source shape, characterized by $\alpha$, is found to be neither Cauchy nor Gaussian, implying the need for a full L\'evy analysis. Similarly to what was previously found for systems characterized by Gaussian source radii, a hydrodynamical scaling is observed for the L\'evy $R$ parameter. The $\lambda$ parameter is studied in terms of the core-halo model.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review C. All figures and tables can be found at http://cms-results.web.cern.ch/cms-results/public-results/publications/HIN-21-011 (CMS Public Pages

Search for high-mass resonances decaying to a jet and a Lorentz-boosted resonance in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\text{ }\text{ }\mathrm{TeV}

Physics letters / B 832, 137263 (2022). doi:10.1016/j.physletb.2022.137263 Published by North-Holland Publ., Amsterda

Extracting the speed of sound in the strongly interacting matter created in ultrarelativistic lead-lead collisions at the LHC

International audienceUltrarelativistic nuclear collisions create a strongly interacting state of hot and dense quark-gluon matter that exhibits a remarkable collective flow behavior with minimal viscous dissipation. To gain deeper insights into its intrinsic nature and fundamental degrees of freedom, we extracted the speed of sound in this medium created using lead-lead (PbPb) collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV. The data were recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 0.607 nb$^{-1}$. The measurement is performed by studying the multiplicity dependence of the average transverse momentum of charged particles emitted in head-on PbPb collisions. Our findings reveal that the speed of sound in this matter is nearly half the speed of light, with a squared value of 0.241 $\pm$ 0.002 (stat) $\pm$ 0.016 (syst) in natural units. The effective medium temperature, estimated using the mean transverse momentum, is 219 $\pm$ 8 (syst) MeV. The measured squared speed of sound at this temperature aligns precisely with predictions from lattice quantum chromodynamic (QCD) calculations. This result provides a stringent constraint on the equation of state of the created medium and direct evidence for a deconfined QCD phase being attained in relativistic nuclear collisions

Pancreatic surgery outcomes: multicentre prospective snapshot study in 67 countries

Background: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with high morbidity rates. Although postoperative mortality appears to have improved with specialization, the outcomes reported in the literature reflect the activity of highly specialized centres. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following pancreatic surgery worldwide.Methods: This was an international, prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional snapshot study of consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic operations worldwide in a 3-month interval in 2021. The primary outcome was postoperative mortality within 90 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships with Human Development Index (HDI) and other parameters.Results: A total of 4223 patients from 67 countries were analysed. A complication of any severity was detected in 68.7 percent of patients (2901 of 4223). Major complication rates (Clavien-Dindo grade at least IIIa) were 24, 18, and 27 percent, and mortality rates were 10, 5, and 5 per cent in low-to-middle-, high-, and very high-HDI countries respectively. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate was 5.4 per cent (229 of 4223) overall, but was significantly higher in the low-to-middle-HDI group (adjusted OR 2.88, 95 per cent c.i. 1.80 to 4.48). The overall failure-to-rescue rate was 21 percent; however, it was 41 per cent in low-to-middle-compared with 19 per cent in very high-HDI countries.Conclusion: Excess mortality in low-to-middle-HDI countries could be attributable to failure to rescue of patients from severe complications. The authors call for a collaborative response from international and regional associations of pancreatic surgeons to address management related to death from postoperative complications to tackle the global disparities in the outcomes of pancreatic surgery (NCT04652271; ISRCTN95140761)