Unlearned Lessons from Risk, Debt Service, Bank Credit, and Asymmetric Information

This paper presents a model of the economy that explains the economic bubbles, based on bank credit, debt service and risk. In the first period of the model, banks offer too much credit seeking to maximise their expected profits. The excessive debt created in the boom period generates, in the second-period, the expansion of the debt bubble, which induces failures in the financial market and the downturn of the overall economy. Business cycles are inherent in the free market systems. They may be caused by endogenous factors of financial markets and, given the absence of adequate, effective regulation, they may be unavoidable. Credit crunch in the financial market is therefore highly probable. In order to reduce substantially the risk of such occurrences, economic and financial policies are proposed. Key words: Asymmetric information, bank credit, risk, debt service and business cycle

Tourism in Azores Islands: Persistence in the Monthly Arrivals

This study analyses the persistence in the international monthly arrivals to the Azores Islands using a model based on fractional integration and seasonal autoregressions. The estimated fractional differencing parameter gives an indication of the long run evolution of the series. We use both aggregate data and disaggregate monthly data by location of origin and island destination. The results show that the aggregate series corresponding to the total number of arrivals is a nonstationary I(d) process with d above 1, and the most persistent ones are those travelling to Säo Miguel, especially from Holland, Finland, Norway, Germany, Denmark and the UK.Monthly arrivals; Seasonal fractional integration; Persistence; Azores Islands.

Productivity Growth and Biased Technological Change in Hydroelectric Generating Dams

This paper analyses productivity growth and the nature of techni- cal change in a sample of Portuguese hydroelectric generating plants over the period 2001 to 2004. In a ¯rst step, we employ the Luen- berger productivity indicator to estimate and decompose productivity change. The results paint a picture of mixed productivity performance in the Portuguese energy sector. In a second step, we analyse the na- ture of this technical change by using the recent concept of parallel neutrality (Briec et al., 2006). We observe a global shift in the best practice frontier as well as evidence of input bias in technical change.hydroelectric energy; Portugal; Luenberger productivity indicator; parallel neutrality.

Persistence on airline accidents

This paper analyses airline accidents data from 1927-2006. The fractional integration methodology is adopted. It is shown that airline accidents are persistent and (fractionally) cointegrated with airline traffic. Thus, there exists an equilibrium relation between air accidents and airline traffic, with the effect of the shocks to that relationship disappearing in the long run. Policy implications are derived for countering accidents events.

Performance of stones under different conditions : a study of metro stations

The study of stone alterations in the Lisbon Metro stations allowed the discussion of the influence in the development of these alterations of stones characteristics and the actual conditions to which the stones are subjected. Alterations occur under what can be considered the usual conditions of use but also under abnormal situations that must be taken into account given its frequency. The diverse situations identified are considered in the discussion of possible recommendations bearing in mind the actual situations found at the stations.Financiado pela Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia com fundos nacionais (programa plurianual de financiamento de unidades de investigação)

Performance of stones under different conditions: a study of metro stations

Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in chronic lymphoid leukemia: a proposal by the Brazilian Consensus on Bone Marrow Transplantation of the Brazilian Society of Bone Marrow Transplantation, Rio de Janeiro 2009

Portadores de leucemia linfoide crônica (LLC) apresentam curso clínico indolente e prolongado que devem ser diferenciados daqueles que têm doença de evolução agressiva e fatal. Pacientes mais jovens e com critérios de alto risco podem se beneficiar com tratamento mais agressivo como o transplante de células-tronco hemopoéticas (TCTH). O transplante autólogo apresenta casos com remissão citogenética e molecular, baixa taxa de mortalidade, mas não demonstram platô nas curvas de sobrevivência e alta taxa de recaídas. Os transplantes alogênicos com regime mieloablativos têm altos índices de toxicidade e mortalidade, mas evidenciam o efeito enxerto versus leucemia, que aumenta a possibilidade de cura destes indivíduos. Assim, a opção dos transplantes alogênicos está dirigida para os transplantes com regime de condicionamento não mieloablativo, que pode ser aplicado inclusive a pacientes mais idosos ou portadores de comorbidades, e manter o potencial efeito GVL. A identificação dos pacientes que podem ser beneficiados por esses procedimentos, caracterizar e apontar os novos marcadores prognósticos permanece objeto de muitos estudos clínicos e foi o objetivo do grupo responsável em discutir as diretrizes do TCTH no consenso da Sociedade Brasileira de Transplante de Medula Óssea - SBTMO. Assim, consideramos que o TCTH para a leucemia linfoide crônica (LLC) deve seguir, para sua indicação, os critérios do European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) e, quando houver disponibilidade de um doador aparentado, a opção deve ser do TCTH alogênico com regime não mieloablativo. O TCTH alogênico não aparentado e o autólogo devem ser considerados como opção secundária de indisponibilidade de doador, situações especiais e ensaios clínicos.Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia usually have an indolent and prolonged clinical course and need to be differentiated from those who have an aggressive and fatal disease. Younger patients with high-risk criteria may benefit with a more aggressive treatment that includes hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Autologous transplantation, despite of the encouraging results with cases of molecular and/or cytogenetic remission and low mortality rates, does not present a plateau in survival curves and has a high relapse rate. Allogeneic transplantations using myeloablative regimens, have high toxicity and mortality rates, but also demonstrate the graft-versus-leukemia effect that increases the possibility of cure of these individuals. So the option of allogeneic transplants for patients with CLL is directed to conditioning using non-myeloablative regimens, which can also be applied to older patients or those with comorbidities, and maintain a potential graft-versus-leukemia effect. The identification of patients who may benefit from these procedures and the characterization of new prognostic markers remain the subjects of many clinical studies and were the objective of the group responsible for discussing guidelines for CLL of the consensus on HSCT SBTMO. Thus we believe that HSCT for CLL should follow the criteria of the EBMT. When a sibling donor is available the best option is allogeneic HSCT with a myeloablative regimen. The strategy of unrelated allogeneic or autologous HSCT must be considered as a second option when no donor is available, for special situations and clinical trials

Application of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and orthogonal projections to latent structures/partial least squares regression for estimation of procyanidins average degree of polymerisation

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy has being emphasised as a widespread technique in the quick assess of food components. In this work, procyanidins were extracted with methanol and acetone/water from the seeds of white and red grape varieties. A fractionation by graded methanol/chloroform precipitations allowed to obtain 26 samples that were characterised using thiolysis as pre-treatment followed by HPLC-UV and MS detection. The average degree of polymerisation (DPn) of the procyanidins in the samples ranged from 2 to 11 flavan-3-ol residues. FTIR spectroscopy within the wavenumbers region of 1800-700 cm(-1) allowed to build a partial least squares (PLS1) regression model with 8 latent variables (LVs) for the estimation of the DPn, giving a RMSECV of 11.7%, with a R(2) of 0.91 and a RMSEP of 2.58. The application of orthogonal projection to latent structures (O-PLS1) clarifies the interpretation of the regression model vectors. Moreover, the O-PLS procedure has removed 88% of non-correlated variations with the DPn, allowing to relate the increase of the absorbance peaks at 1203 and 1099 cm(-1) with the increase of the DPn due to the higher proportion of substitutions in the aromatic ring of the polymerised procyanidin molecules.The authors gratefully acknowledge Pedro Vasco (Universidade de Aveiro) and Eng. A. Dias Cardoso, Eng. José Carvalheira, and all staff from Estac¸ ão Vitivinícola da Bairrada, Portugal, for the technical support and raw material provided. Thanks are also due to Adega Cooperativa de Pinhel for providing the seed from red grapes. This work was supported by the Research Unit 62/94 QOPNA and project POCTI/EQU/47533/2002. Cláudia Passos was supported by a PhD grant by FCT, SFRH/BD/19072/2004.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Characterization and strengthening a "ghost" building

In the middle of the eighties it was intended to build a one family dwelling at a North Portuguese Region, but a much bigger edification was constructed, without any design elements. At the end of the nineties this construction was acquired, and another architectonic and functional configuration was designed for this space. Since there were not any elements available for the existent construction, it was carried out several strategies for its geometrical, structural and material characterization. These elements gave the indispensable information for analysing the structural stability of the building, which revealed to be necessary to strengthen foundations, beams and columns. The procedures for characterizing the construction, the structural stability analysis and the strengthening strategies are described in the work

mHealth Applications to Monitor Lifestyle Behaviors and Circadian Rhythm in Clinical Settings: Current Perspective and Future Directions

Metabolic diseases are a global rising health burden, mainly due to the deleterious interaction of current lifestyles with the underlying biology of these diseases. Daily habits and behaviors, such as diet, sleep, and physical exercise impact the whole-body circadian system through the synchronization of the peripheral body clocks that contribute to metabolic homeostasis. The disruption of this system may promote the development of metabolic diseases, including obesity and diabetes, emphasizing the importance of assessing and monitoring variables that affect circadian rhythms. Advances in technology are generating innovative resources and tools for health care management and patient monitoring, particularly important for chronic conditions. The use of mobile health technologies, known as mHealth, is increasing and these approaches are contributing to aiding both patients and healthcare professionals in disease management and education. The mHealth solutions allow continuous monitoring of patients, sharing relevant information and data with physicians and other healthcare professionals and accessing education resources to support informed decisions. Thus, if properly used, these tools empower patients and help them to adopt healthier lifestyles. This article aims to give an overview of the influence of circadian rhythms disruption and lifestyle habits in the progression of metabolic diseases while also reviewing some of the mobile applications available to monitor lifestyle behaviors and individual chronobiology. Herein is also described the design and development of the NutriClock system, an mHealth solution developed by our team to monitor these variables