Tourism in Azores Islands: Persistence in the Monthly Arrivals

Abstract

This study analyses the persistence in the international monthly arrivals to the Azores Islands using a model based on fractional integration and seasonal autoregressions. The estimated fractional differencing parameter gives an indication of the long run evolution of the series. We use both aggregate data and disaggregate monthly data by location of origin and island destination. The results show that the aggregate series corresponding to the total number of arrivals is a nonstationary I(d) process with d above 1, and the most persistent ones are those travelling to Säo Miguel, especially from Holland, Finland, Norway, Germany, Denmark and the UK.Monthly arrivals; Seasonal fractional integration; Persistence; Azores Islands.