Individualized Absolute Risk Calculations for Persons with Multiple Chronic Conditions: Embracing Heterogeneity, Causality, and Competing Events

Approximately 75% of adults over the age of 65 years are affected by two or more chronic medical conditions. We provide a conceptual justification for individualized absolute risk calculators for competing patient-centered outcomes (PCO) (i.e. outcomes deemed important by patients) and patient reported outcomes (PRO) (i.e. outcomes patients report instead of physiologic test results). The absolute risk of an outcome is the probability that a person receiving a given treatment will experience that outcome within a pre-defined interval of time, during which they are simultaneously at risk for other competing outcomes. This allows for determination of the likelihood of a given outcome with and without a treatment. We posit that there are heterogeneity of treatment effects among patients with multiple chronic conditions (MCC) largely depends on those coexisting conditions. We outline the development of an individualized absolute risk calculator for competing outcomes using propensity score methods that strengthen causal inference for specific treatments. Innovations include the key concept that any given outcome may or may not concur with any other outcome and that these competing outcomes do not necessarily preclude other outcomes. Patient characteristics and MCC will be the primary explanatory factors used in estimating the heterogeneity of treatment effects on PCO and PRO. This innovative method may have wide-spread application for determining individualized absolute risk calculations for competing outcomes. Knowing the probabilities of outcomes in absolute terms may help the burgeoning population of patients with MCC who face complex treatment decisions

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in older persons: A comparison of two spirometric definitions

SummaryBackgroundAmong older persons, we previously endorsed a two-step spirometric definition of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) that requires a ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1sec to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) below .70, and an FEV1 below the 5th or 10th standardized residual percentile (“SR-tile strategy”).ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical validity of an SR-tile strategy, compared to a current definition of COPD, as published by the Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD-COPD), in older persons.MethodsWe assessed national data from 2480 persons aged 65–80 years. In separate analyses, we evaluated the association of an SR-tile strategy with mortality and respiratory symptoms, relative to GOLD-COPD. As per convention, GOLD-COPD was defined solely by an FEV1/FVC<.70, with severity staged according to FEV1 cut-points at 80 and 50 percent predicted (%Pred).ResultsAmong 831 participants with GOLD-COPD, the risk of death was elevated only in 179 (21.5%) of those who also had an FEV1<5th SR-tile; and the odds of having respiratory symptoms were elevated only in 310 (37.4%) of those who also had an FEV1<10th SR-tile. In contrast, GOLD-COPD staged at an FEV1 50–79%Pred led to misclassification (overestimation) in terms of 209 (66.4%) and 77 (24.6%) participants, respectively, not having an increased risk of death or likelihood of respiratory symptoms.ConclusionRelative to an SR-tile strategy, the majority of older persons with GOLD-COPD had neither an increased risk of death nor an increased likelihood of respiratory symptoms. These results raise concerns about the clinical validity of GOLD guidelines in older persons

Development, Validation, and Assessment of an Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack-Specific Prediction Tool for Obstructive Sleep Apnea

BACKGROUND: Screening instruments for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), as used routinely to guide clinicians regarding patient referral for polysomnography (PSG), rely heavily on symptomatology. We sought to develop and validate a cerebrovascular disease-specific OSA prediction model less reliant on symptomatology, and to compare its performance with commonly used screening instruments within a population with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). METHODS: Using data on demographic factors, anthropometric measurements, medical history, stroke severity, sleep questionnaires, and PSG from 2 independently derived, multisite, randomized trials that enrolled patients with stroke or TIA, we developed and validated a model to predict the presence of OSA (i.e., Apnea-Hypopnea Index ≥5 events per hour). Model performance was compared with that of the Berlin Questionnaire, Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), the Snoring, Tiredness, Observed apnea, high blood Pressure, Body mass index, Age, Neck circumference, and Gender instrument, and the Sleep Apnea Clinical Score. RESULTS: The new SLEEP Inventory (Sex, Left heart failure, ESS, Enlarged neck, weight [in Pounds], Insulin resistance/diabetes, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale) performed modestly better than other instruments in identifying patients with OSA, showing reasonable discrimination in the development (c-statistic .732) and validation (c-statistic .731) study populations, and having the highest negative predictive value of all in struments. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should be aware of these limitations in OSA screening instruments when making decisions about referral for PSG. The high negative predictive value of the SLEEP INventory may be useful in determining and prioritizing patients with stroke or TIA least in need of overnight PSG

Diagnosing and managing sleep apnea in patients with chronic cerebrovascular disease: a randomized trial of a home-based strategy

Background Obstructive sleep apnea is common and associated with poor outcomes after stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). We sought to determine whether the intervention strategy improved sleep apnea detection, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) treatment, and hypertension control among patients with chronic cerebrovascular disease and hypertension. Methods In this randomized controlled strategy trial intervention, patients received unattended polysomnography at baseline, and patients with OSA (apnea-hypopnea index ≥5 events/h) received auto-titrating continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) for up to 1 year. Control patients received usual care and unattended polysomnography at the end of the study, to identify undiagnosed OSA. Both groups received 24-h blood pressure assessments at baseline and end of the study. “Excellent” CPAP adherence was defined as cumulative use of ≥4 h/night for ≥70% of the nights. Results Among 225 randomized patients (115 control; 110 intervention), 61.9% (120/194) had sleep apnea. The strategy successfully diagnosed sleep apnea with 97.1% (102/105) valid studies; 90.6% (48/53, 95% CI 82.7–98.4%) of sleep apnea was undiagnosed among control patients. The intervention improved long-term excellent CPAP use: 38.6% (22/57) intervention versus 0% (0/2) control (p < 0.0001). The intervention did not improve hypertension control in this population with well-controlled baseline blood pressure: intervention, 132.7 mmHg (±standard deviation, 14.1) versus control, 133.8 mmHg (±14.0) (adjusted difference, −1.1 mmHg, 95% CI (−4.2, 2.0)), p = 0.48). Conclusions Patients with cerebrovascular disease and hypertension have a high prevalence of OSA. The use of portable polysomnography, and auto-titrating CPAP in the patients’ homes, improved both the diagnosis and the treatment for sleep apnea compared with usual care but did not lower blood pressure

Infarct Location and Sleep Apnea: Evaluating the Potential Association in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Background: The literature about the relationship between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and stroke location is conflicting with some studies finding an association and others demonstrating no relationship. Among acute ischemic stroke patients, we sought to examine the relationship between stroke location and the prevalence of OSA; OSA severity based on apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), arousal frequency, and measure of hypoxia; and number of central and obstructive respiratory events. Methods: Data were obtained from patients who participated in a randomized controlled trial (NCT01446913) that evaluated the effectiveness of a strategy of diagnosing and treating OSA among patients with acute ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack. Stroke location was classified by brain imaging reports into subdivisions of lobes, subcortical areas, brainstem, cerebellum, and vascular territory. The association between acute stroke location and polysomnographic findings was evaluated using logistic regression for OSA presence and negative binomial regression for AHI. Results: Among 73 patients with complete polysomnography and stroke location data, 58 (79%) had OSA. In unadjusted models, no stroke location variable was associated with the prevalence or severity of OSA. Similarly, in multivariable modeling, groupings of stroke location were also not associated with OSA presence. Conclusions: These results indicate that OSA is present in the majority of stroke patients and imply that stroke location cannot be used to identify a group with higher risk of OSA. The results also suggest that OSA likely predated the stroke. Given this high overall prevalence, strong consideration should be given to obtaining polysomnography for all ischemic stroke patients

Perfis municipais de risco a cheias e inundações para aplicação ao ordenamento do território em Portugal continental

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Diagnosing and Treating Sleep Apnea in Patients With Acute Cerebrovascular Disease

Background Obstructive sleep apnea ( OSA ) is common among patients with acute ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack. We evaluated whether continuous positive airway pressure for OSA among patients with recent ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack improved clinical outcomes. Methods and Results This randomized controlled trial among patients with ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack compared 2 strategies (standard or enhanced) for the diagnosis and treatment of OSA versus usual care over 1 year. Primary outcomes were National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and modified Rankin Scale scores. Among 252 patients (84, control; 86, standard; 82, enhanced), OSA prevalence was as follows: control, 69%; standard, 74%; and enhanced, 80%. Continuous positive airway pressure use occurred on average 50% of nights and was similar among standard (3.9±2.1 mean hours/nights used) and enhanced (4.3±2.4 hours/nights used; P=0.46) patients. In intention-to-treat analyses, changes in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and modified Rankin Scale scores were similar across groups. In as-treated analyses among patients with OSA, increasing continuous positive airway pressure use was associated with improved National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (no/poor, -0.6±2.9; some, -0.9±1.4; good, -0.3±1.0; P=0.0064) and improved modified Rankin Scale score (no/poor, -0.3±1.5; some, -0.4±1.0; good, -0.9±1.2; P=0.0237). In shift analyses among patients with OSA, 59% of intervention patients had best neurological symptom severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, 0-1) versus 38% of controls ( P=0.038); absolute risk reduction was 21% (number needed to treat, 4.8). Conclusions Although changes in neurological functioning and functional status were similar across the groups in the intention-to-treat analyses, continuous positive airway pressure use was associated with improved neurological functioning among patients with acute ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack with OS

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24&nbsp;months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500&nbsp;steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30&nbsp;minutes spent performing activities ≥500&nbsp;counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24&nbsp;months), both the number of steps per day (per 500&nbsp;steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500&nbsp;counts per minute (per 30&nbsp;minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score &gt;10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease