On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts

We analyze the relation between earning forecast accuracy and expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate Gaussian distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the probability density function, for the expectation, and, more generally, for moments of all orders are obtained. Our analysis shows that the relationship between forecast precision and trading profitability need not to be monotonic, and that, for any analyst, the impact on his expected payoff of the correlation between his forecasts and those of the other market participants depends on the accuracy of his signals. Furthermore, our model accommodates a unique full-communication equilibrium in the sense of Radner (1979): if all information is reflected in the market price, then the expected payoff of all market participants is equal to zero.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figure

On positivity and base loci of vector bundles

The aim of this note is to shed some light on the relationships among some notions of positivity for vector bundles that arose in recent decades. Our purpose is to study several of the positivity notions studied for vector bundles with some notions of asymptotic base loci that can be defined on the variety itself, rather than on the projectivization of the given vector bundle. We relate some of the different notions conjectured to be equivalent with the help of these base loci, and we show that these can help simplify the various relationships between the positivity properties present in the literature. In particular, we define augmented and restricted base loci $\mathbb{B}_+ (E)$ and $\mathbb{B}_- (E)$ of a vector bundle $E$ on the variety $X$, as generalizations of the corresponding notions studied extensively for line bundles. As it turns out, the asymptotic base loci defined here behave well with respect to the natural map induced by the projectivization of the vector bundle $E$

Predictors and outcomes of sustained, intermittent or never achieving remission in patients with recent onset inflammatory polyarthritis:Results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register

Objectives: Early remission is the current treatment strategy for patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and RA. Our objective was to identify baseline factors associated with achieving remission: sustained (SR), intermittent (IR) or never (NR) over a 5-year period in patients with early IP.  Methods: Clinical and demographic data of patients with IP recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) were obtained at baseline and years 1, 2, 3 and 5. Remission was defined as no tender or swollen joints (out of 51). Patients were classified as NR or PR, respectively, if they were in remission at: no assessment or ⩾3 consecutive assessments after baseline, and IR otherwise. Ordinal regression and a random effects model, respectively, were used to examine the association between baseline factors, remission group and HAQ scores over time.  Results: A total of 868 patients (66% female) were included. Of these, 54%, 34% and 12% achieved NR, IR and SR, respectively. In multivariate analysis, female sex (odds ratio, OR 0.47, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.63), higher tender joint count (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96), higher HAQ (OR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.74), being obese (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.99), hypertensive (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.90) or depressed (OR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55, 1.00) at baseline were independent predictors of being in a lower remission group. IR and SR were associated with lower HAQ scores over time and lower DAS28 at year 5.  Conclusion: Women with higher tender joint count and disability at baseline, depression, obesity and hypertension were less likely to achieve remission. This information could help when stratifying patients for more aggressive therapy

A Dual-Stream architecture based on Neural Turing Machine and Attention for the Remaining Useful Life Estimation problem

Estimating in a reliable way the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a mechanical component is a fundamental task in the field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). In recent years a greater availability of high quality sensors and easiness of data gathering gave rise to data-driven models based on deep learning for this task, which has recently seen the introduction of \u201cdual-stream\u201d architectures. In this paper we propose a dual-stream architecture to address the RUL estimation problem through the exploitation of a Neural Turing Machine (NTM) and a Multi-Head Attention (MHA) mechanism. The NTM is a content-based memory addressing system which gives each of the streams the ability to access to and interact with the memory and acts as a fusion technique. The MHA is an attention mechanism added as a mean for our architecture to identify the existing relations between different sensor data in order to reveal hidden patterns among them. To evaluate the performance of our model, we considered the C-MAPSS dataset, a benchmark dataset published by NASA consisting of several time series related to the life of turbofan engines. We show that our approach achieves the best prediction score (which measures the safety of the predictions) in the available literature on two of the C-MAPSS subdatasets

Application of strontium isotopic analysis to the promotion of the Vignola sweet cherry PGI

The perceived quality of a food commodity may critically depend on the food origin, when regional traditions about the same food production are well-known [1]. This is certainly the case of Vignola Sweet Cherry, which is covered by the Protected Geographical Indication (PGI). The development of a territoriality model for Vignola Sweet Cherry PGI by means of analytical indicators hence represent a very intriguing task, useful for the promotion of the product itself. In the framework of the pilot project “Ciliegia-UNIMORE2014”, we have assessed the effectiveness of the isotope ratio 87Sr/86Sr as direct traceability indicator, since this indicator have already provided excellent results in similar studies. [2]. Thanks to the collaboration of single producers and to the Association of sweet cherry, plum and typical fruit of Vignola, we have monitored the 87Sr/86Sr ratio in soils, branches and sweet cherry fruits of 3 producing fields, as well as in 100 fruit samples belonging to 20 different cultivars and coming from ten municipalities of the region of production. For a more complete characterization of the cherries, the concentration of 10 metals (major and trace constituents) and the polyphenols content have been determined

Formal Insertion of Alkenes Into C(sp3)−F Bonds Mediated by Fluorine-Hydrogen Bonding

C−F Insertion reactions represent an attractive approach to prepare valuable fluorinated compounds. The high strength of C−F bonds and the low reactivity of the fluoride released upon C−F bond cleavage, however, mean that examples of such processes are extremely scarce in the literature. Here we report a reaction system that overcomes these challenges using hydrogen bond donors that both activate C−F bonds and allow for downstream reactions with fluoride. In the presence of hexafluoroisopropanol, benzyl and propargyl fluorides undergo efficient formal C−F bond insertion across α-fluorinated styrenes. This process, which does not require any additional fluorinating reagent, occurs under mild conditions and delivers products featuring the gem-difluoro motif, which is attracting increasing interest in medicinal chemistry. Moreover, readily available organic bromides can be engaged directly in a one-pot process that avoids the isolation of organic fluorides

Wind-Tunnel Tests of a Tilt-Rotor Aircraft

A wide aerodynamic test campaign has been carried out on the tiltrotor aircraft ERICA at the Large Wind Tunnel of Politecnico di Milano by means of a modular 1:8 scale model in order to produce a dataset necessary to better understand the aerodynamic behaviour of the aircraft and to state its definitive design. The target of the tests was the measurement of the aerodynamic forces and moments in several different configurations and different attitudes. The test program included some conditions at very high incidence and sideslip angles that typically belong to the helicoptermode flight envelope and measurements of forces on the tail and on the tilting wings. A large amount of data has been collected that will be very useful to refine the aircraft design. In general the aircraft aerodynamics do not present any critical problems, but further optimisation is still possible. From the viewpoint of drag in the cruise configuration, the sponsons of the landing gear seem to be worth some further design refinement since they are responsible for a 20% drag increase with respect to the pure fuselage configuration. On the contrary, the wing fairing has proved to work well when the aircraft longitudinal axis is aligned with the wind, providing just a slight drag increase. Two other interesting aspects are the quite nonlinear behaviour of the side force for the intermediate sideslip angles as well as the noticeable hysteresis in the moment coefficient at very high incidence angles

Laminography as a tool for imaging large-size samples with high resolution

Despite the increased brilliance of the new generation synchrotron sources, there is still a challenge with high-resolution scanning of very thick and absorbing samples, such as a whole mouse brain stained with heavy elements, and, extending further, brains of primates. Samples are typically cut into smaller parts, to ensure a sufficient X-ray transmission, and scanned separately. Compared with the standard tomography setup where the sample would be cut into many pillars, the laminographic geometry operates with slab-shaped sections significantly reducing the number of sample parts to be prepared, the cutting damage and data stitching problems. In this work, a laminography pipeline for imaging large samples (>1 cm) at micrometre resolution is presented. The implementation includes a low-cost instrument setup installed at the 2-BM micro-CT beamline of the Advanced Photon Source. Additionally, sample mounting, scanning techniques, data stitching procedures, a fast reconstruction algorithm with low computational complexity, and accelerated reconstruction on multi-GPU systems for processing large-scale datasets are presented. The applicability of the whole laminography pipeline was demonstrated by imaging four sequential slabs throughout an entire mouse brain sample stained with osmium, in total generating approximately 12 TB of raw data for reconstruction

Extension of aquaponic water use for NFT baby-leaf production : mizuna and rocket salad

Aquaponics is a recirculating technology that combines aquaculture with hydroponics. It allows nutrients from fish waste to feed plants and thus saves water and nutrients. However, there is a mismatch between the nutrients provided by the fish waste and plant needs. Because of this, some nutrients, notably N, tend to accumulate in the aquaponic water (APW or AP water). The aim of this study was to investigate how APW, which is depleted of P and K but still rich in N, could be further utilized. APW was used in a mesocosm and compared with APW from the same source that had been supplemented with macro-nutrients (complemented AP water or CAPW) and a hydroponic control (HC). Mizuna (M) and rocket salad (R) were used as short-cycle vegetable crops in a NFT system. The results revealed that the low production potential of APW was mainly caused by the lack of P and K. If these were supplemented, the yields were comparable to those in the HC. M yield in CAPW was significantly higher than that of HC, probably due to biostimulant effects connected to the organic components in the water as a result of fish farming. Water type, cultivation density, and intercropping significantly influenced the qualitative characteristics of the crop in terms of antioxidant compounds and minerals. Nitrate content in vegetables was lower than European regulation limits. The extended use of APW is viable if the missing nutrients are supplemented; this could be a strategy to increase the efficiency of water and nitrogen use, while further reducing environmental impact