Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing Environment: A Dominant Role for Water

Transpiration—the movement of water from the soil, through plants, and into the atmosphere—is the dominant water flux from the earth\u27s terrestrial surface. The evolution of vascular plants, while increasing terrestrial primary productivity, led to higher transpiration rates and widespread alterations in the global climate system. Similarly, anthropogenic influences on transpiration rates are already influencing terrestrial hydrologic cycles, with an even greater potential for changes lying ahead. Intricate linkages among anthropogenic activities, terrestrial productivity, the hydrologic cycle, and global demand for ecosystem services will lead to increased pressures on ecosystem water demands. Here, we focus on identifying the key drivers of ecosystem water use as they relate to plant physiological function, the role of predicted global changes in ecosystem water uses, trade-offs between ecosystem water use and carbon uptake, and knowledge gaps

Photosynthesis, yield, energy balance, and water-use of intercropped maize and soybean

By 2050, the U.S. Corn Belt will likely face a 23% increase in leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPDL), the driving force of evapotranspiration (ET), which may restrict maize yield improvements for rainfed agroecosystems. Alternative cropping systems, such as maize and legume intercrops, have previously demonstrated yield and resource-use advantages over monocultures. In this study, the residual energy balance approach was used to gain insights into how an additive simultaneous maize and soybean intercrop system regulates ET and water-use efficiency (WUE) compared to standard maize and soybean monoculture systems of the U.S. Corn Belt. Experimental field plots were rain-fed and arranged in a randomized complete block design in three blocks. Photosynthetic capacity and grain yield of maize were conserved in the intercrop. However, its competitive dominance shaded 80%–90% of incident light for intercropped soybean at canopy closure, leading to a 94% decrease in grain yield compared to soybean monoculture. The total grain yield per unit area of the additive intercrop (land-use efficiency) increased by 11% ± 6% (1 SE). Compared to maize monoculture, the intercrop had higher latent heat fluxes (λET) at night but lower daytime λET as the intercrop canopy surface temperature was approximately.25°C warmer, partitioning more energy to sensible heat flux. However, the diel differences in λET fluxes were not sufficient to establish a statistically significant or biologically relevant decrease in seasonal water-use (ΣET). Likewise, the increase in land-use efficiency by the intercrop was not sufficient to establish an increase in seasonal water-use efficiency. Intercropping high-performing maize and soybean cultivars in a dense configuration without negative impact suggests that efforts to increase yield and WUE may lead to improved benefits

Candidate Perennial Bioenergy Grasses have a Higher Albedo than Annual Row Crops

The production of perennial cellulosic feedstocks for bioenergy presents the potential to diversify regional economies and the national energy supply, while also serving as climate ‘regulators’ due to a number of biogeochemical and biogeophysical differences relative to row crops. Numerous observational and model-based approaches have investigated biogeochemical trade-offs, such as increased carbon sequestration and increased water use, associated with growing cellulosic feedstocks. A less understood aspect is the biogeophysical changes associated with the difference in albedo (a), which could alter the local energy balance and cause local to regional cooling several times larger than that associated with offsetting carbon. Here, we established paired fields of Miscanthus 9 giganteus (miscanthus) and Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), two of the leading perennial cellulosic feedstock candidates, and traditional annual row crops in the highly productive ‘Corn-belt’. Our results show that miscanthus did and switchgrass did not have an overall higher a than current row crops, but a strong seasonal pattern existed. Both perennials had consistently higher growing season a than row crops and winter a did not differ. The lack of observed differences in winter a, however, masked an interaction between snow cover and species differences, with the perennial species, compared with the row crops, having a higher a when snow was absent and a much lower a when snow was present. Overall, these changes resulted in an average net reduction in annual absorbed energy of about 5 W m -2 for switchgrass and about 8 W m -2 for miscanthus relative to annual crops. Therefore, the conversion from annual row to perennial crops alters the radiative balance of the surface via changes in a and could lead to regional cooling

Assessing the Potential to Decrease the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone with Midwest US Perennial Cellulosic Feedstock Production

The goal of this research was to determine the changes in streamflow, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) leaching and export to the Gulf of Mexico associated with a range of large-scale dedicated perennial cellulosic bioenergy production scenarios within in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). To achieve this goal, we used Agro-IBIS, a vegetation model capable of simulating the biogeochemistry of row crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, coupled with THMB, a hydrology model capable of simulating streamflow and DIN export. Simulations were conducted at varying fertilizer application rates (0–200 kg N ha -1) and fractional replacement (5–25%) of current row crops with miscanthus or switchgrass across the MARB. The analysis also includes two scenarios where miscanthus and switchgrass (MRX and MRS, respectively) each replace the ca. 40% of maize production currently devoted to ethanol. Across the scenarios, there were minor reductions in runoff and streamflow throughout the MARB, with the largest differences (ca. 6%) occurring for miscanthus at the highest fractional replacement scenarios in drier portions of the region. However, differences in total MARB discharge at the basin outlet were less than 1.5% even in the MRX scenario. Reductions in DIN export were much larger on a percentage basis than reductions in runoff, with the highest replacement scenarios decreasing long-term mean DIN export by ca. 15% and 20% for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. Fertilization scenarios show that significant reductions in DIN leaching are possible even with application rates of 100 and 150 kg N ha -1 for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. These results indicate that, given targeted management strategies, there is potential for miscanthus and switchgrass to provide key ecosystem services by reducing the export of DIN, while avoiding hydrologic impacts of reduced streamflow

The inverse relationship between solar-induced fluorescence yield and photosynthetic capacity: Benefits for field phenotyping

Improving photosynthesis is considered a promising way to increase crop yield to feed a growing population. Realizing this goal requires non-destructive techniques to quantify photosynthetic variation among crop cultivars. Despite existing remote sensing-based approaches, it remains a question whether solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) can facilitate screening crop cultivars of improved photosynthetic capacity in plant breeding trials. Here we tested a hypothesis that SIF yield rather than SIF had a better relationship with the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax). Time-synchronized hyperspectral images and irradiance spectra of sunlight under clear-sky conditions were combined to estimate SIF and SIF yield, which were then correlated with ground-truth Vcmax and Jmax. With observations binned over time (i.e. group 1: 6, 7, and 12 July 2017; group 2: 31 July and 18 August 2017; and group 3: 24 and 25 July 2018), SIF yield showed a stronger negative relationship, compared with SIF, with photosynthetic variables. Using SIF yield for Jmax (Vcmax) predictions, the regression analysis exhibited an R2 of 0.62 (0.71) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 11.88 (46.86) μmol m-2 s-1 for group 1, an R2 of 0.85 (0.72) and RMSE of 13.51 (49.32) μmol m-2 s-1 for group 2, and an R2 of 0.92 (0.87) and RMSE of 15.23 (30.29) μmol m-2 s-1 for group 3. The combined use of hyperspectral images and irradiance measurements provides an alternative yet promising approach to characterization of photosynthetic parameters at plot level

To have value, comparisons of high-throughput phenotyping methods need statistical tests of bias and variance

The gap between genomics and phenomics is narrowing. The rate at which it is narrowing, however, is being slowed by improper statistical comparison of methods. Quantification using Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) is commonly used to assess method quality, but it is an often misleading statistic for this purpose as it is unable to provide information about the relative quality of two methods. Using r can both erroneously discount methods that are inherently more precise and validate methods that are less accurate. These errors occur because of logical flaws inherent in the use of r when comparing methods, not as a problem of limited sample size or the unavoidable possibility of a type I error. A popular alternative to using r is to measure the limits of agreement (LOA). However both r and LOA fail to identify which instrument is more or less variable than the other and can lead to incorrect conclusions about method quality. An alternative approach, comparing variances of methods, requires repeated measurements of the same subject, but avoids incorrect conclusions. Variance comparison is arguably the most important component of method validation and, thus, when repeated measurements are possible, variance comparison provides considerable value to these studies. Statistical tests to compare variances presented here are well established, easy to interpret and ubiquitously available. The widespread use of r has potentially led to numerous incorrect conclusions about method quality, hampering development, and the approach described here would be useful to advance high throughput phenotyping methods but can also extend into any branch of science. The adoption of the statistical techniques outlined in this paper will help speed the adoption of new high throughput phenotyping techniques by indicating when one should reject a new method, outright replace an old method or conditionally use a new method

Drought imprints on crops can reduce yield loss: Nature\u27s insights for food security

The Midwestern “Corn-Belt” in the United States is the most productive agricultural region on the planet despite being predominantly rainfed. In this region, global climate change is driving precipitation patterns toward wetter springs and drier mid- to late-summers, a trend that is likely to intensify in the future. The lack of precipitation can lead to crop water limitations that ultimately impact growth and yields. Young plants exposed to water stress will often invest more resources into their root systems, possibly priming the crop for any subsequent mid- or late-season drought. The trend toward wetter springs, however, suggests that opportunities for crop priming may lessen in the future. Here, we test the hypothesis that early season dry conditions lead to drought priming in field-grown crops and this response will protect crops against growth and yield losses from late-season droughts. This hypothesis was tested for the two major Midwestern crop, maize and soybean, using high-resolution daily weather data, satellite-derived phenological metrics, field yield data, and ecosystem-scale model (Agricultural Production System Simulator) simulations. The results from this study showed that priming mitigated yield losses from a late season drought of up to 4.0% and 7.0% for maize and soybean compared with unprimed crops experiencing a late season drought. These results suggest that if the trend toward wet springs with drier summers continues, the relative impact of droughts on crop productivity is likely to worsen. Alternatively, identifying opportunities to breed or genetically modify pre-primed crop species may provide improved resilience to future climate change

Development of a data-assimilation system to forecast agricultural systems: A case study of constraining soil water and soil nitrogen dynamics in the APSIM model

As we face today\u27s large-scale agricultural issues, the need for robust methods of agricultural forecasting has never been clearer. Yet, the accuracy and precision of our forecasts remains limited by current tools and methods. To overcome the limitations of process-based models and observed data, we iteratively designed and tested a generalizable and robust data-assimilation system that systematically constrains state variables in the APSIM model to improve forecast accuracy and precision. Our final novel system utilizes the Ensemble Kalman Filter to constrain model states and update model parameters at observed time steps and incorporates an algorithm that improves system performance through the joint estimation of system error matrices. We tested this system at the Energy Farm, a well-monitored research site in central Illinois, where we assimilated observed in situ soil moisture at daily time steps for two years and evaluated how assimilation impacted model forecasts of soil moisture, yield, leaf area index, tile flow, and nitrate leaching by comparing estimates with in situ observations. The system improved the accuracy and precision of soil moisture estimates for the assimilation layers by an average of 42% and 48%, respectively, when compared to the free model. Such improvements led to changes in the model\u27s soil water and nitrogen processes and, on average, increased accuracy in forecasts of annual tile flow by 43% and annual nitrate loads by 10%. Forecasts of aboveground measures did not dramatically change with assimilation, a fact which highlights the limited potential of soil moisture as a constraint for a site with no water stress. Extending the scope of previous work, our results demonstrate the power of data assimilation to constrain important model estimates beyond the assimilated state variable, such as nitrate leaching. Replication of this study is necessary to further define the limitations and opportunities of the developed system

A review of transformative strategies for climate mitigation by grasslands

Grasslands can significantly contribute to climate mitigation. However, recent trends indicate that human activities have switched their net cooling effect to a warming effect due to management intensification and land conversion. This indicates an urgent need for strategies directed to mitigate climate warming while enhancing productivity and efficiency in the use of land and natural (nutrients, water) resources. Here, we examine the potential of four innovative strategies to slow climate change including: 1) Adaptive multi-paddock grazing that consists of mimicking how ancestral herds roamed the Earth; 2) Agrivoltaics that consists of simultaneously producing food and energy from solar panels on the same land area; 3) Agroforestry with a reverse phenology tree species, Faidherbia (Acacia) albida, that has the unique trait of being photosynthetically active when intercropped herbaceous plants are dormant; and, 4) Enhanced Weathering, a negative emission technology that removes atmospheric CO2 from the atmosphere. Further, we speculate about potential unknown consequences of these different management strategies and identify gaps in knowledge. We find that all these strategies could promote at least some of the following benefits of grasslands: CO2 sequestration, non-CO2 GHG mitigation, productivity, resilience to climate change, and an efficient use of natural resources. However, there are obstacles to be overcome. Mechanistic assessment of the ecological, environmental, and socio-economic consequences of adopting these strategies at large scale are urgently needed to fully assess the potential of grasslands to provide food, energy and environmental security