Patient Diagnostic Rate as Indicator of Tuberculosis Case Detection, South Africa.

To address the uncertainty of the indirectly measured tuberculosis case detection rate, we used survey data stratified by HIV status to calculate the patient diagnostic rate, a directly measurable indicator, in 8 communities in South Africa. Rates were lower among HIV-negative than HIV-positive persons. Tuberculosis programs should focus on HIV-negative persons

Missed opportunities for retention in pre-ART care in Cape Town, South Africa

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated access to and retention in pre-ART care. Objectives To evaluate the proportion of People Living With HIV (PLWH) in pre-ART and ART care and factors associated with retention in pre-ART and ART care from a community cohort. METHODS: A cross sectional survey was conducted from February - April 2011. Self reported HIV positive, negative or participants of unknown status completed a questionnaire on their HIV testing history, access to pre-ART and retention in pre-ART and ART care. RESULTS: 872 randomly selected adults who reported being HIV positive in the ZAMSTAR 2010 prevalence survey were included and revisited. 579 (66%) reconfirmed their positive status and were included in this analysis. 380 (66%) had initiated ART with 357 of these (94%) retained in ART care. 199 (34%) had never initiated ART of whom 186 (93%) accessed pre-ART care, and 86 (43%) were retained in pre-ART care. In a univariable analysis none of the factors analysed were significantly associated with retention in care in the pre-ART group. Due to the high retention in ART care, factors associated with retention in ART care, were not analysed further. CONCLUSION: Retention in ART care was high; however it was low in pre-ART care. The opportunity exists, if care is better integrated, to engage with clients in primary health care facilities to bring them back to, and retain them in, pre-ART care

Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020.

For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later

Towards Eliminating Bias in Cluster Analysis of TB Genotyped Data

The relative contributions of transmission and reactivation of latent infection to TB cases observed clinically has been reported in many situations, but always with some uncertainty. Genotyped data from TB organisms obtained from patients have been used as the basis for heuristic distinctions between circulating (clustered strains) and reactivated infections (unclustered strains). Naïve methods previously applied to the analysis of such data are known to provide biased estimates of the proportion of unclustered cases. The hypergeometric distribution, which generates probabilities of observing clusters of a given size as realized clusters of all possible sizes, is analyzed in this paper to yield a formal estimator for genotype cluster sizes. Subtle aspects of numerical stability, bias, and variance are explored. This formal estimator is seen to be stable with respect to the epidemiologically interesting properties of the cluster size distribution (the number of clusters and the number of singletons) though it does not yield satisfactory estimates of the number of clusters of larger sizes. The problem that even complete coverage of genotyping, in a practical sampling frame, will only provide a partial view of the actual transmission network remains to be explored

Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register

n 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80–0.83). The highest SMR was in 15–24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15–24-year olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed

BED Estimates of HIV Incidence: Resolving the Differences, Making Things Simpler

Objective: Develop a simple method for optimal estimation of HIV incidence using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay. Design: Use existing BED data to estimate mean recency duration, false recency rates and HIV incidence with reference to a fixed time period, T. Methods: Compare BED and cohort estimates of incidence referring to identical time frames. Generalize this approach to suggest a method for estimating HIV incidence from any cross-sectional survey. Results: Follow-up and BED analyses of the same, initially HIV negative, cases followed over the same set time period T, produce estimates of the same HIV incidence, permitting the estimation of the BED mean recency period for cases who have been HIV positive for less than T. Follow-up of HIV positive cases over T, similarly, provides estimates of the false-recent rate appropriate for T. Knowledge of these two parameters for a given population allows the estimation of HIV incidence during T by applying the BED method to samples from cross-sectional surveys. An algorithm is derived for providing these estimates, adjusted for the false-recent rate. The resulting estimator is identical to one derived independently using a more formal mathematical analysis. Adjustments improve the accuracy of HIV incidence estimates. Negative incidence estimates result from the use of inappropriate estimates of the false-recent rate and/or from sampling error, not from any error in the adjustment procedure

Birth outcomes following antiretroviral exposure during pregnancy : initial results from a pregnancy exposure registry in South Africa

CITATION: Mehta, U. C. et al. 2019. Birth outcomes following antiretroviral exposure during pregnancy : initial results from a pregnancy exposure registry in South Africa. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine, 20(1):a971, doi:10.4102/sajhivmed.v20i1.971.The original publication is available at https://sajhivmed.org.zaBackground: In 2013, a pregnancy exposure registry and birth defects surveillance (PER/BDS) system was initiated in eThekwini District, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), to assess the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on birth outcomes. Objectives: At the end of the first year, we assessed the risk of major congenital malformations (CM) and other adverse birth outcomes (ABOs) detected at birth, in children born to women exposed to ART during pregnancy. Method: Data were collected from women who delivered at Prince Mshiyeni Memorial Hospital, Durban, from 07 October 2013 to 06 October 2014, using medicine exposure histories and birth outcomes from maternal interviews, clinical records and neonatal surface examination. Singleton births exposed to only one ART regimen were included in bivariable analysis for CM risk and multivariate risk analysis for ABO risk. Results: Data were collected from 10 417 women with 10 517 birth outcomes (4013 [38.5%] HIV-infected). Congenital malformations rates in births exposed to Efavirenz during the first trimester (T1) (RR 0.87 [95% CI 0.12–6.4; p = 0.895]) were similar to births not exposed to ART during T1. However, T1 exposure to Nevirapine was associated with the increased risk of CM (RR 9.28 [95% CI 2.3–37.9; p = 0.002]) when compared to the same group. Other ABOs were more frequent in the combination of HIV/ART-exposed births compared to HIV-unexposed births (29.9% vs. 26.0%, adjusted RR 1.23 [1.14–1.31; p < 0.001]). Conclusion: No association between T1 use of EFV-based ART regimens and CM was observed. Associations between T1 NVP-based ART regimen and CM need further investigation. HIV- and ART-exposed infants had more ABOs compared to HIV-unexposed infants.Publisher's versio

Understanding and acting on the developmental origins of health and disease in Africa would improve health across generations.

Data from many high- and low- or middle-income countries have linked exposures during key developmental periods (in particular pregnancy and infancy) to later health and disease. Africa faces substantial challenges with persisting infectious disease and now burgeoning non-communicable disease.This paper opens the debate to the value of strengthening the developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD) research focus in Africa to tackle critical public health challenges across the life-course. We argue that the application of DOHaD science in Africa to advance life-course prevention programmes can aid the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, and assist in improving health across generations. To increase DOHaD research and its application in Africa, we need to mobilise multisectoral partners, utilise existing data and expertise on the continent, and foster a new generation of young African scientists engrossed in DOHaD

Risk factors for Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape province, South Africa

Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates.Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1)