Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners

There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally? Before you continue reading this note, write on a piece of paper your criteria in order of importance and answer the last two questions. This will enable you to see whether or not you share the same values as your colleagues and test the accuracy of your perception.extrapolation, forecasting, extrapolative forecasting method

Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners

There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally

Biomimetic calcium carbonate with hierarchical porosity produced using cork as a sustainable template agent

Calcium carbonate has many applications in different fields; its use in environment remediation is particularly considered, due to its non-toxicity and potentially high efficiency. The structure, morphology and surface features of calcium carbonate can greatly affect its performance. Hierarchical porosity, in particular, can be beneficial for several functional properties. In this study, we report the synthesis of biomorphic calcium carbonate using a sustainable template agent – waste cork powder. Pyrolysed cork powder was infiltrated by an appropriate calcium-containing salt and successively thermally treated. Selected precursors, different impregnation-solution concentrations and thermal conditions were tested. The resulting materials were characterised by XRD, Raman spectroscopy and SEM. Surface area and porosity features were studied by BET analysis, with a detailed study on the effect of synthesis on the mesoporosity of the materials, average sizes varying between 4−15 nm. The most valuable results were achieved with calcium acetate followed by pyrolysis performed for relatively short time period. This maintained the porous 3D honeycomb cork structure made of ∼20 μm hexagonal cells, while consisting of highly mesoporous single-phase CaCO3. Such samples showed the highest surface area ever reported for CaCO3 prepared using a plant-based template; moreover, it also exhibited a dual-scale hierarchical porosity as, in addition to micrometer scale cellular macroporosity, it contained a significant mesoporosity in the cell walls, with a very narrow range of 3.6–3.9 nm. These promising characteristics enable the potential employment of cork-derived CaCO3 for environment remediation.publishe

Heat Generation in the Railroad Bearing Thermoplastic Elastomer Suspension Element

The main purpose of this ongoing study is to investigate the effect of heat generation within a railroad thermoplastic elastomer suspension element on the thermal behavior of the railroad bearing assembly. Specifically, the purpose of this project is to quantify the heat generated by cyclic loading of the elastomer suspension element as a function of load amplitude, loading frequency, and operating temperature. The contribution of the elastomer pad to the system energy balance is modeled using data from dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) of the specific materials in use for that part. DMA is a technique that is commonly used to characterize material properties as a function of temperature, time, frequency, stress, atmosphere or a combination of these parameters. DMA tests were run on samples of pad material prepared by three different processes: injection molded coupons, transfer molded coupons, and parts machined from an actual pad. The results provided a full characterization of the elastic deformation (Energy Storage) and viscous dissipation (Energy Dissipation) behavior of the material as a function of loading frequency, and temperature. These results show that the commonly used thermoplastic elastomer does generate heat under cyclic loading, though the frequency which produces peak heat output is outside the range of common loading frequency in rail service. These results can be combined with a stress analysis and service load measurements to estimate internally generated heat and, thus, enable a refined model for the evolution of bearing temperature during operation

Genes of the Unfolded Protein Response Pathway Harbor Risk Alleles for Primary Open Angle Glaucoma

The statistical power of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to detect risk alleles for human diseases is limited by the unfavorable ratio of SNPs to study subjects. This multiple testing problem can be surmounted with very large population sizes when common alleles of large effects give rise to disease status. However, GWA approaches fall short when many rare alleles may give rise to a common disease, or when the number of subjects that can be recruited is limited. Here, we demonstrate that this multiple testing problem can be overcome by a comparative genomics approach in which an initial genome-wide screen in a genetically amenable model organism is used to identify human orthologues that may harbor risk alleles for adult-onset primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). Glaucoma is a major cause of blindness, which affects over 60 million people worldwide. Several genes have been associated with juvenile onset glaucoma, but genetic factors that predispose to adult onset primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) remain largely unknown. Previous genome-wide analysis in a Drosophila ocular hypertension model identified transcripts with altered regulation and showed induction of the unfolded protein response (UPR) upon overexpression of transgenic human glaucoma-associated myocilin (MYOC). We selected 16 orthologous genes with 62 polymorphic markers and identified in two independent human populations two genes of the UPR that harbor POAG risk alleles, BIRC6 and PDIA5. Thus, effectiveness of the UPR in response to accumulation of misfolded or aggregated proteins may contribute to the pathogenesis of POAG and provide targets for early therapeutic intervention

Land-use change alters the mechanisms assembling rainforest mammal communities in Borneo

1. The assembly of species communities at local scales is thought to be driven by environmental filtering, species interactions and spatial processes such as dispersal limitation. Little is known about how the relative balance of these drivers of community assembly changes along environmental gradients, especially manmade environmental gradients associated with land-use change. 2. Using concurrent camera- and live-trapping, we investigated the local-scale assembly of mammal communities along a gradient of land-use intensity (old-growth forest, logged forest and oil palm plantations) in Borneo. We hypothesised that increasing land-use intensity would lead to an increasing dominance of environmental control over spatial processes in community assembly. Additionally, we hypothesised that competitive interactions among species might reduce in concert with declines in α-diversity (previously documented) along the land-use gradient. 3. To test our first hypothesis, we partitioned community variance into the fractions explained by environmental and spatial variables. To test our second hypothesis, we used probabilistic models of expected species co-occurrence patterns, in particular focussing on the prevalence of spatial avoidance between species. Spatial avoidance might indicate competition, but might also be due to divergent habitat preferences. 4. We found patterns that are consistent with a shift in the fundamental mechanics governing local community assembly. In support of our first hypothesis, the importance of spatial processes (dispersal limitation and fine-scale patterns of home-ranging) appeared to decrease from low to high intensity land-uses, whilst environmental control increased in importance (in particular due to fine-scale habitat structure). Support for our second hypothesis was weak: whilst we found that the prevalence of spatial avoidance decreased along the land-use gradient, in particular between congeneric species pairs most likely to be in competition, few instances of spatial avoidance were detected in any land-use, and most were likely due to divergent habitat preferences. 5. The widespread changes in land-use occurring in the tropics might be altering not just the biodiversity found in landscapes, but also the fundamental mechanics governing the local assembly of communities. A better understanding of these mechanics, for a range of taxa, could underpin more effective conservation and management of threatened tropical landscapes

Grasping and Manipulation of Unknown Objects Based on Visual and Tactile Feedback

Haschke R. Grasping and Manipulation of Unknown Objects Based on Visual and Tactile Feedback. In: Carbone G, Gomez-Bravo F, eds. Motion and Operation Planning of Robotic Systems. Mechanisms and Machine Science. Vol 29. Switzerland: Springer; 2015: 522.The sense of touch allows humans and higher animals to perform coordinated and efficient interactions within their environment. Recently, tactile sensor arrays providing high force, spatial, and temporal resolution became available for robotics, which allows us to consider new control strategies to exploit this important and valuable sensory channel for grasping and manipulation tasks. Successful dexterous manipulation strongly depends on tight feedback loops integrating proprioceptive, visual, and tactile feedback. We introduce a framework for tactile servoing that can realize specific tactile interaction patterns, for example to establish and maintain contact (grasping) or to explore and manipulate objects. We demonstrate and evaluate the capabilities of the proposed control framework in a series of preliminary experiments employing a 16 × 16 tactile sensor array attached to a Kuka LWR arm as a large fingertip

Better Late Than Never: A Fully-abstract Semantics for Classical Processes

We present Hypersequent Classical Processes (HCP), a revised interpretation of the "Proofs as Processes" correspondence between linear logic and the {\pi}-calculus initially proposed by Abramsky [1994], and later developed by Bellin and Scott [1994], Caires and Pfenning [2010], and Wadler [2014], among others. HCP mends the discrepancies between linear logic and the syntax and observable semantics of parallel composition in the {\pi}-calculus, by conservatively extending linear logic to hyperenvironments (collections of environments, inspired by the hypersequents by Avron [1991]). Separation of environments in hyperenvironments is internalised by $\otimes$ and corresponds to parallel process behaviour. Thanks to this property, for the first time we are able to extract a labelled transition system (lts) semantics from proof rewritings. Leveraging the information on parallelism at the level of types, we obtain a logical reconstruction of the delayed actions that Merro and Sangiorgi [2004] formulated to model non-blocking I/O in the {\pi}-calculus. We define a denotational semantics for processes based on Brzozowski derivatives, and uncover that non-interference in HCP corresponds to Fubini's theorem of double antiderivation. Having an lts allows us to validate HCP using the standard toolbox of behavioural theory. We instantiate bisimilarity and barbed congruence for HCP, and obtain a full abstraction result: bisimilarity, denotational equivalence, and barbed congruence coincide

Classification of hyperbolic Dynkin diagrams, root lengths and Weyl group orbits

We give a criterion for a Dynkin diagram, equivalently a generalized Cartan matrix, to be symmetrizable. This criterion is easily checked on the Dynkin diagram. We obtain a simple proof that the maximal rank of a Dynkin diagram of compact hyperbolic type is 5, while the maximal rank of a symmetrizable Dynkin diagram of compact hyperbolic type is 4. Building on earlier classification results of Kac, Kobayashi-Morita, Li and Sa\c{c}lio\~{g}lu, we present the 238 hyperbolic Dynkin diagrams in ranks 3-10, 142 of which are symmetrizable. For each symmetrizable hyperbolic generalized Cartan matrix, we give a symmetrization and hence the distinct lengths of real roots in the corresponding root system. For each such hyperbolic root system we determine the disjoint orbits of the action of the Weyl group on real roots. It follows that the maximal number of disjoint Weyl group orbits on real roots in a hyperbolic root system is 4.Comment: J. Phys. A: Math. Theor (to appear