Development and application of environmental integrated assessment modelling towards sustainability

268 p.Los Modelos Ambientales de Evaluación Integrada (MEIs) constituyen una potente herramienta que integra diferentes disciplinas y dimensiones para informar en la toma de decisiones hacia la sostenibilidad. En esta tesis doctoral se aplican dos MEIs centrados en el cambio climático (GCAM y WoLiM) para analizar: (1) las implicaciones de la incertidumbre en la disponibilidad futura de los recursos energéticos fósiles para la futura evolución de los sistemas energéticos, el clima y la sociedad, y (2) las implicaciones de diferentes coaliciones climáticas en el contexto de los acuerdos de París (2015) para el clima y la fuga de carbono de origen industrial y terrestre. En relación a la disponibilidad de los recursos energéticos fósiles, los resultados obtenidos considerando el rango de recursos recuperables en la literatura muestran que potenciales límites a su extracción futura no resolverían por sí solos el problema del cambio climático, aunque se prevé la transición hacia las energías renovables mucho antes que lo estimado por la mayoría de modelos. En relación a las implicaciones de diferentes coaliciones climáticas para el clima y la fuga de carbono de origen industrial y terrestre, los resultados muestran que, la fuga de carbono de origen terrestre podría ser el tipo dominante de fuga de carbono hacia 2050, debido a la deforestación masiva inducida en los países no participantes

Concentrated Solar Power: Actual Performance and Foreseeable Future in High Penetration Scenarios of Renewable Energies

Producción CientíficaAnalyses proposing a high share of concentrated solar power (CSP) in future 100% renewable energy scenarios rely on the ability of this technology, through storage and/or hybridization, to partially avoid the problems associated with the hourly/daily (short-term) variability of other variable renewable sources such as wind or solar photovoltaic. However, data used in the scientific literature are mainly theoretical values. In this work, the actual performance of CSP plants in operation from publicly available data from four countries (Spain, the USA, India, and United Arab Emirates) has been estimated for three dimensions: capacity factor (CF), seasonal variability, and energy return on energy invested (EROI). In fact, the results obtained show that the actual performance of CSP plants is significantly worse than that projected by constructors and considered by the scientific literature in the theoretical studies: a CF in the range of 0.15–0.3, low standard EROI (1.3:1–2.4:1), intensive use of materials—some scarce, and significant seasonal intermittence. In the light of the obtained results, the potential contribution of current CSP technologies in a future 100% renewable energy system seems very limited.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project FJCI-2016-28833)European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No. 69128

Mapping the energy flows and GHG emissions of a medium-size city: The case of Valladolid (Spain)

Producción CientíficaValladolid (Spain) is a medium-size city (~300,000 inhabitants) that established a greenhouse (GHG) emissions reduction target in 2011 of 20% from 2010–2020. However, tracking the evolution of GHG in medium-size cities is challenging due to the general lack of compulsory data collection at this scale and issues with boundaries when attempting alternative estimates. Here, we propose and apply a novel method to estimate the evolution of GHG emissions due to energy consumption for the period of 2010–2019 in Valladolid, combining top-down and bottom-up data following a physical energy flows approach. The energy consumption of the city is estimated by main sectors and types of energies. The results show that, throughout the past decade, both total energy consumption and its sector end-use share did not significantly change: final energy consumption remained at around 24 MWh (86.5 GJ) per capita and was still highly dependent on fossil fuels, especially natural gas and oil products (over 70% of total energy supply). The GHG reduction by 2019 was ~11% with relation to 2010 and, thus, had not reached the set objective; in per capita terms, the GHG reduction was lower (~6%) due to population loss during the period. The trend, however, has not been monotone and has instead followed a U-shape strongly correlated with the economic crisis and subsequent recovery, suggesting that transition policies have had, at most, a modest effect on the overall results. The analysis shows, first of all, the limitations of statistical sources at a local level, both for energy and mobility, which do not allow more accurate results in identifying the main energy consumers to be reached; and, secondly, the need for strong decarbonization measures which have to be set urgently at all the relevant institutional levels. Reaching GHG neutrality in the city by 2050 requires reducing the GHG emissions by ~13%/year, which is ~20 times faster than for the 2010–2019 average of 0.6%/year

Standard, Point of Use, and Extended Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) from Comprehensive Material Requirements of Present Global Wind, Solar, and Hydro Power Technologies

Producción CientíficaWhether renewable energy sources (RES) will provide sufficient energy surplus to entirely power complex modern societies is under discussion. We contribute to this debate by estimating the current global average energy return on energy invested (EROI) for the five RES technologies with the highest potential of electricity generation from the comprehensive and internally consistent estimations of their material requirements at three distinct energy system boundaries: standard farm-gate (EROIst), final at consumer point-of-use (EROIfinal), and extended (including indirect investments, EROIext). EROIst levels found fall within the respective literature ranges. Expanding the boundaries closer to the system level, we find that only large hydroelectricity would currently have a high EROIext ~ 6.5:1, while the rest of variable RES would be below 3:1: onshore wind (2.9:1), offshore wind (2.3:1), solar Photovoltaic (PV) (1.8:1), and solar Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) (<1:1). These results indicate that, very likely, the global average EROIext levels of variable RES are currently below those of fossil fuel-fired electricity. It remains unknown if technological improvements will be able to compensate for factors, which will become increasingly important as the variable RES scale-up. Hence, without dynamically accounting for the evolution of the EROI of the system, the viability of sustainable energy systems cannot be ensured, especially for modern societies pursuing continuous economic growthMEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under grant agree-ment no. 691287LOCOMOTION project, funded by the EuropeanUnion’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programmeunder grant agreement no. 82110

Is community energy really non-existent in post-socialist Europe? Examining recent trends in 16 countries

Producción CientíficaCommunity energy (CE) initiatives are developing in many regions of the world through a great diversity of typologies. Europe has a leading role with thousands of ongoing projects of small and medium size, which are however unevenly distributed over the continent. The density of CE projects is highest in North-Western and parts of Central Europe; on the contrary, their spread in post-socialist European countries (PSECs) has been reported to be much more limited. However, the (under)development of CE in PSECs remains an understudied topic in the literature. In this paper, we present an exploratory overview of the situation and briefly discuss its potential explanatory factors for 16 PSECs. We find differing development levels of progress, with Croatia outstanding with a diversity of projects and a certain maturation of the field, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia with a reduced number of rather small-scale projects, while in the remaining countries no operational relevant projects have been found to date. We present our methods, overviews by country and some tentative explanations. We suggest further research to be directed towards in-depth analysis of single countries and relevant project cases in PSECs.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (grant FJCI-2016–28833

Renewable Energy Cooperatives as an instrument towards the energy transition in Spain

Producción CientíficaRenewable Energy Sources (RES) offer a key transformative potential from a social point of view due to their modularity and capacity to generate energy at local level, allowing for the development of democratic and participative bottom-up initiatives. Spanish RES cooperatives, unlike other European countries, are few in number. Here, we review their development by applying the Multi-Level Perspective approach. Spanish RES cooperatives have recently come up against a hostile regulatory and economic context, which has induced specific organizational and operating structures such as the application of innovative participation methods and investment tools. Spanish RES cooperatives regularly collaborate in sharing learning processes and experiences, having also demonstrated their capacity to spread new ideas at both social and political levels. However, despite their growth and territorial spread over the last few years, RES cooperatives still have a minor presence in the Spanish energy system. Although some internal factors may limit their potential as an active instrument towards the transition to RES in the country, the regime's resistance is found to be the main barrier. This paper concludes with some recommendations for policy makers and RES cooperatives to enhance its potential role in the forthcoming energy transition process.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project FJCI-2016–28833)European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no 69128

European biofuels policy and its contribution to a low carbon future

•There is an increasing urgency of decarbonising the EU transport sector. •Biofuels are expected to play a significant role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. •The EU has intensively promoted biofuels since 2000, reaching 5-6% of liquids consumption. •Controversies have focused on indirect land use changes and competition with food production. •In view of the scientific evidence, a new ILUC Directive was adopted in September 2015

Global Sustainability Crossroads: A Participatory Simulation Game to Educate in the Energy and Sustainability Challenges of the 21st Century

Producción CientíficaThere is a general need to facilitate citizens’ understanding of the global sustainability problem with the dual purpose of raising their awareness of the seriousness of the problem and helping them get closer to understanding the complexity of the solutions. Here, the design and application of the participatory simulation game Global Sustainability Crossroads is described, based on a global state-of-the-art energy–economy–environment model, which creates a virtual scenario where the participants are confronted with the design of climate mitigation strategies as well as the social, economic, and environmental consequences of decisions. The novelty of the game rests on the global scope and the representation of the drivers of anthropogenic emissions within the MEDEAS-World model, combined with a participatory simulation group dynamic flexible enough to be adapted to a diversity of contexts and participants. The performance of 13 game workshops with ~420 players has shown it has a significant pedagogical potential: the game is able to generate discussions on crucial topics which are usually outside the public realm such as the relationship between economic growth and sustainability, the role of technology, how human desires are limited by biophysical constraints or the possibility of climate tipping point

Dynamic Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) and material requirements in scenarios of global transition to renewable energies

Producción CientíficaA novel methodology is developed to dynamically assess the energy and material investments required over time to achieve the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. The obtained results indicate that a fast transition achieving a 100% renewable electric system globally by 2060 consistent with the Green Growth narrative could decrease the EROI of the energy system from current ~12:1 to ~3:1 by the mid-century, stabilizing thereafter at ~5:1. These EROI levels are well below the thresholds identified in the literature required to sustain industrial complex societies. Moreover, this transition could drive a substantial re-materialization of the economy, exacerbating risk availability in the future for some minerals. Hence, the results obtained put into question the consistence and viability of the Green Growth narrative.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project no. FJCI-2016-28833)MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 69128

Modelling of sectoral energy demand through energy intensities in MEDEAS integrated assessment model

Producción CientíficaThe estimation of future energy demand is a key factor for the development of effective alternative policies towards a low carbon economy. This paper describes a novel method to estimate the energy demand in the new integrated assessment framework MEDEAS based on the projection of sectoral final energy intensities. The dynamic of each of the sectoral final energy intensity is broken down into (1) improvement in energy efficiency and (2) substitution of the final energy. The speed of changes in these factors depend on physical supply-demand unbalances in the market, climate mitigation and other energy saving policies and the perception of scarcity of the different economic agents. The simulated case studies in MEDEAS-World under the narrative of the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario have allowed validating the model's robustness and showing the potentiality of its application.European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 691287Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project FJCI-2016-28833