Evolutionary Stability of Ideal Free Dispersal under Spatial Heterogeneity and Time Periodicity

Roughly speaking, a population is said to have an ideal free distribution on a spatial region if all of its members can and do locate themselves in a way that optimizes their fitness, allowing for the effects of crowding. Dispersal strategies that can lead to ideal free distributions of populations using them have been shown to exist and to be evolutionarily stable in a number of modeling contexts in the case of habitats that vary in space but not in time. Those modeling contexts include reaction-diffusion-advection models and the analogous models using discrete diffusion or nonlocal dispersal described by integro-differential equations. Furthermore, in the case of reaction-diffusion-advection models and their nonlocal analogues, there are strategies that allow populations to achieve an ideal free distribution by using only local information about environmental quality and/or gradients. We show that in the context of reaction-diffusion-advection models for time-periodic environments with spatially varying resource levels, where the total level of resources in an environment remains fixed but its location varies seasonally, there are strategies that allow populations to achieve an ideal free distribution. We also show that those strategies are evolutionarily stable. However, achieving an ideal free distribution in a time-periodic environment requires the use of nonlocal information about the environment such as might be derived from experience and memory, social learning, or genetic programming. This is joint work with Chris Cosner

On the evolution of slow dispersal in multi-species communities

For any $N \geq 2$, we show that there are choices of diffusion rates $\{d_i\}_{i=1}^N$ such that for $N$ competing species which are ecologically identical and having distinct diffusion rates, the slowest diffuser is able to competitive exclude the remainder of the species. In fact, the choices of such diffusion rates is open in the Hausdorff topology. Our result provides some evidence in the affirmative direction regarding the conjecture by Dockery et al. in \cite{Dockery1998}. The main tools include Morse decomposition of the semiflow, as well as the theory of normalized principal bundle for linear parabolic equations

Populations with individual variation in dispersal in heterogeneous environments: dynamics and competition with simply diffusing populations

We consider a model for a population in a heterogeneous environment, with logistic type local population dynamics, under the assumption that individuals can switch between two different nonzero rates of diffusion. Such switching behavior has been observed in some natural systems. We study how environmental heterogeneity and the rates of switching and diffusion affect the persistence of the population. The reaction diffusion systems in the models can be cooperative at some population densities and competitive at others. The results extend our previous work on similar models in homogeneous environments. We also consider competition between two populations that are ecologically identical, but where one population diffuses at a fixed rate and the other switches between two different diffusion rates. The motivation for that is to gain insight into when switching might be advantageous versus diffusing at a fixed rate. This is a variation on the classical results for ecologically identical competitors with differing fixed diffusion rates, where it is well known that the slower diffuser wins.Comment: To be published in SCIENCE CHINA Mathematic

Ideal Free Dispersal under General Spatial heterogeneity and Time Periodicity

A population is said to have an ideal free distribution in a spatially heterogeneous but temporally constant environment if each of its members have chosen a fixed spatial location in a way that optimizes its individual fitness, allowing for the effects of crowding. In this paper, we extend the idea of individual fitness associated with a specific location in space to account for the full path that an individual organism takes in space and time over a periodic cycle, and extend the mathematical formulation of an ideal free distribution to general time periodic environments. We find that, as in many other cases, populations using dispersal strategies that can produce a generalized ideal free distribution have a competitive advantage relative to populations using strategies that do not produce an ideal free distribution. A sharp criterion on the environmental functions is found to be necessary and sufficient for such ideal free distribution to be feasible. In the case the criterion is met, we showed that there exist dispersal strategies that can be identified as producing a time-periodic version of an ideal free distribution, and such strategies are evolutionarily steady and are neighborhood invaders from the viewpoint of adaptive dynamics. Our results extend previous works in which the environments are either temporally constant, or temporally periodic but the total carrying capacity is temporally constant

Comparison of Nanotrap® Microbiome A Particles, membrane filtration, and skim milk workflows for SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater

IntroductionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA monitoring in wastewater has become an important tool for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance. Grab (quantitative) and passive samples (qualitative) are two distinct wastewater sampling methods. Although many viral concentration methods such as the usage of membrane filtration and skim milk are reported, these methods generally require large volumes of wastewater, expensive lab equipment, and laborious processes.MethodsThe objectives of this study were to compare two workflows (Nanotrap® Microbiome A Particles coupled with MagMax kit and membrane filtration workflows coupled with RNeasy kit) for SARS-CoV-2 recovery in grab samples and two workflows (Nanotrap® Microbiome A Particles and skim milk workflows coupled with MagMax kit) for SARS-CoV-2 recovery in Moore swab samples. The Nanotrap particle workflow was initially evaluated with and without the addition of the enhancement reagent 1 (ER1) in 10 mL wastewater. RT-qPCR targeting the nucleocapsid protein was used for detecting SARS-CoV-2 RNA.ResultsAdding ER1 to wastewater prior to viral concentration significantly improved viral concentration results (P < 0.0001) in 10 mL grab and swab samples processed by automated or manual Nanotrap workflows. SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in 10 mL grab and Moore swab samples with ER1 processed by the automated workflow as a whole showed significantly higher (P < 0.001) results than 150 mL grab samples using the membrane filtration workflow and 250 mL swab samples using the skim milk workflow, respectively. Spiking known genome copies (GC) of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 into 10 mL wastewater indicated that the limit of detection of the automated Nanotrap workflow was ~11.5 GC/mL using the RT-qPCR and 115 GC/mL using the digital PCR methods.DiscussionThese results suggest that Nanotrap workflows could substitute the traditional membrane filtration and skim milk workflows for viral concentration without compromising the assay sensitivity. The manual workflow can be used in resource-limited areas, and the automated workflow is appropriate for large-scale COVID-19 wastewater-based surveillance

The total dispersal kernel: a review and future directions

The distribution and abundance of plants across the world depends in part on their ability to move, which is commonly characterized by a dispersal kernel. For seeds, the total dispersal kernel (TDK) describes the combined influence of all primary, secondary and higher-order dispersal vectors on the overall dispersal kernel for a plant individual, population, species or community. Understanding the role of each vector within the TDK, and their combined influence on the TDK, is critically important for being able to predict plant responses to a changing biotic or abiotic environment. In addition, fully characterizing the TDK by including all vectors may affect predictions of population spread. Here, we review existing research on the TDK and discuss advances in empirical, conceptual modelling and statistical approaches that will facilitate broader application. The concept is simple, but few examples of well-characterized TDKs exist. We find that significant empirical challenges exist, as many studies do not account for all dispersal vectors (e.g. gravity, higher-order dispersal vectors), inadequately measure or estimate long-distance dispersal resulting from multiple vectors and/or neglect spatial heterogeneity and context dependence. Existing mathematical and conceptual modelling approaches and statistical methods allow fitting individual dispersal kernels and combining them to form a TDK; these will perform best if robust prior information is available. We recommend a modelling cycle to parameterize TDKs, where empirical data inform models, which in turn inform additional data collection. Finally, we recommend that the TDK concept be extended to account for not only where seeds land, but also how that location affects the likelihood of establishing and producing a reproductive adult, i.e. the total effective dispersal kernel

Advancing an interdisciplinary framework to study seed dispersal ecology

Although dispersal is generally viewed as a crucial determinant for the fitness of any organism, our understanding of its role in the persistence and spread of plant populations remains incomplete. Generalizing and predicting dispersal processes are challenging due to context dependence of seed dispersal, environmental heterogeneity and interdependent processes occurring over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Current population models often use simple phenomenological descriptions of dispersal processes, limiting their ability to examine the role of population persistence and spread, especially under global change. To move seed dispersal ecology forward, we need to evaluate the impact of any single seed dispersal event within the full spatial and temporal context of a plant’s life history and environmental variability that ultimately influences a population’s ability to persist and spread. In this perspective, we provide guidance on integrating empirical and theoretical approaches that account for the context dependency of seed dispersal to improve our ability to generalize and predict the consequences of dispersal, and its anthropogenic alteration, across systems. We synthesize suitable theoretical frameworks for this work and discuss concepts, approaches and available data from diverse subdisciplines to help operationalize concepts, highlight recent breakthroughs across research areas and discuss ongoing challenges and open questions. We address knowledge gaps in the movement ecology of seeds and the integration of dispersal and demography that could benefit from such a synthesis. With an interdisciplinary perspective, we will be able to better understand how global change will impact seed dispersal processes, and potential cascading effects on plant population persistence, spread and biodiversity

Agricultural Research Service Weed Science Research: Past, Present, and Future

The U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) has been a leader in weed science research covering topics ranging from the development and use of integrated weed management (IWM) tactics to basic mechanistic studies, including biotic resistance of desirable plant communities and herbicide resistance. ARS weed scientists have worked in agricultural and natural ecosystems, including agronomic and horticultural crops, pastures, forests, wild lands, aquatic habitats, wetlands, and riparian areas. Through strong partnerships with academia, state agencies, private industry, and numerous federal programs, ARS weed scientists have made contributions to discoveries in the newest fields of robotics and genetics, as well as the traditional and fundamental subjects of weed-crop competition and physiology and integration of weed control tactics and practices. Weed science at ARS is often overshadowed by other research topics; thus, few are aware of the long history of ARS weed science and its important contributions. This review is the result of a symposium held at the Weed Science Society of America\u27s 62nd Annual Meeting in 2022 that included 10 separate presentations in a virtual Weed Science Webinar Series. The overarching themes of management tactics (IWM, biological control, and automation), basic mechanisms (competition, invasive plant genetics, and herbicide resistance), and ecosystem impacts (invasive plant spread, climate change, conservation, and restoration) represent core ARS weed science research that is dynamic and efficacious and has been a significant component of the agency\u27s national and international efforts. This review highlights current studies and future directions that exemplify the science and collaborative relationships both within and outside ARS. Given the constraints of weeds and invasive plants on all aspects of food, feed, and fiber systems, there is an acknowledged need to face new challenges, including agriculture and natural resources sustainability, economic resilience and reliability, and societal health and well-being

Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation

Seed dispersal enables plants to reach hospitable germination sites and escape natural enemies. Understanding when and how much seed dispersal matters to plant fitness is critical for understanding plant population and community dynamics. At the same time, the complexity of factors that determine if a seed will be successfully dispersed and subsequently develop into a reproductive plant is daunting. Quantifying all factors that may influence seed dispersal effectiveness for any potential seed-vector relationship would require an unrealistically large amount of time, materials and financial resources. On the other hand, being able to make dispersal predictions is critical for predicting whether single species and entire ecosystems will be resilient to global change. Building on current frameworks, we here posit that seed dispersal ecology should adopt plant functional groups as analytical units to reduce this complexity to manageable levels. Functional groups can be used to distinguish, for their constituent species, whether it matters (i) if seeds are dispersed, (ii) into what context they are dispersed and (iii) what vectors disperse them. To avoid overgeneralization, we propose that the utility of these functional groups may be assessed by generating predictions based on the groups and then testing those predictions against species-specific data. We suggest that data collection and analysis can then be guided by robust functional group definitions. Generalizing across similar species in this way could help us to better understand the population and community dynamics of plants and tackle the complexity of seed dispersal as well as its disruption

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in pregnant women in Kilifi, Kenya from March 2020 to March 2022

BackgroundSeroprevalence studies are an alternative approach to estimating the extent of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the evolution of the pandemic in different geographical settings. We aimed to determine the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from March 2020 to March 2022 in a rural and urban setting in Kilifi County, Kenya.MethodsWe obtained representative random samples of stored serum from a pregnancy cohort study for the period March 2020 to March 2022 and tested for antibodies against the spike protein using a qualitative SARS-CoV-2 ELISA kit (Wantai, total antibodies). All positive samples were retested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid antibodies (Euroimmun, ELISA kits, NCP, qualitative, IgG) and anti-spike protein antibodies (Euroimmun, ELISA kits, QuantiVac; quantitative, IgG).ResultsA total of 2,495 (of 4,703 available) samples were tested. There was an overall trend of increasing seropositivity from a low of 0% [95% CI 0–0.06] in March 2020 to a high of 89.4% [95% CI 83.36–93.82] in Feb 2022. Of the Wantai test-positive samples, 59.7% [95% CI 57.06–62.34] tested positive by the Euroimmun anti-SARS-CoV-2 NCP test and 37.4% [95% CI 34.83–40.04] tested positive by the Euroimmun anti-SARS-CoV-2 QuantiVac test. No differences were observed between the urban and rural hospital but villages adjacent to the major highway traversing the study area had a higher seroprevalence.ConclusionAnti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence rose rapidly, with most of the population exposed to SARS-CoV-2 within 23 months of the first cases. The high cumulative seroprevalence suggests greater population exposure to SARS-CoV-2 than that reported from surveillance data