Resonant and non-resonant whistlers-particle interaction in the radiation belts

We study the wave-particle interactions between lower band chorus whistlers and an anisotropic tenuous population of relativistic electrons. We present the first direct comparison of first-principle Part

Approximate semi-analytical solutions for the steady-state expansion of a contactor plasma

We study the steady-state expansion of a collisionless, electrostatic, quasi-neutral plasma plume into vacuum, with a fluid model. We analyze approximate semi-analytical solutions, that can be used in lieu of much more expensive numerical solutions. In particular, we focus on the earlier studies presented in Parks and Katz (1979 American Institute of Aeronautics, Astronautics Conf. vol 1), Korsun and Tverdokhlebova (1997 33rd Joint Prop. Conf. (Seattle, WA) AIAA-97-3065), and Ashkenazy and Fruchtman (2001 27th Int. Electric Propulsion Conf. (Pasadena, CA)). By calculating the error with respect to the numerical solution, we can judge the range of validity for each solution. Moreover, we introduce a generalization of earlier models that has a wider range of applicability, in terms of plasma injection profiles. We conclude by showing a straightforward way to extend the discussed solutions to the case of a plasma plume injected with non-null azimuthal velocity

On the generation of probabilistic forecasts from deterministic models

Most of the methods that produce space weather forecasts are based on deterministic models. In order to generate a probabilistic forecast, a model needs to be run several times sampling the input parameter space, in order to generate an ensemble from which the distribution of outputs can be inferred. However, ensemble simulations are costly and often preclude the possibility of real-time forecasting. We introduce a simple and robust method to generate uncertainties from deterministic models, that does not require ensemble simulations. The method is based on the simple consideration that a probabilistic forecast needs to be both accurate and well calibrated (reliable). We argue that these two requirements are equally important, and we introduce the Accuracy-Reliability cost function that quantitatively measures the trade-off between accuracy and reliability. We then define the optimal uncertainties as the standard deviation of the Gaussian distribution that minimizes the cost function. We demonstrate that this simple strategy, implemented here by means of a deep neural network, produces accurate and well-calibrated forecasts, showing examples both on synthetic and real-world space weather data

Adaptive selection of sampling points for uncertainty quantification

We present a simple and robust strategy for the selection of sampling points in Uncertainty Quantification. The goal is to achieve the fastest possible convergence in the cumulative distribution function of a stochastic output of interest. We assume that the output of interest is the outcome of a computationally expensive nonlinear mapping of an input random variable, whose probability density function is known. We use a radial function basis to construct an accurate interpolant of the mapping. This strategy enables adding new sampling points one at a time, adaptively. This takes into full account the previous evaluations of the target nonlinear function. We present comparisons with a stochastic collocation method based on the Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature rule, and with an adaptive method based on hierarchical surplus, showing that the new method often results in a large computational saving.Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures; to appear in Int. J. Uncertainty Quantificatio

Coherent structures and spectral energy transfer in turbulent plasma: A space-filter approach

Plasma turbulence at scales of the order of the ion inertial length is mediated by several mechanisms, including linear wave damping, magnetic reconnection, the formation and dissipation of thin current sheets, and stochastic heating. It is now understood that the presence of localized coherent structures enhances the dissipation channels and the kinetic features of the plasma. However, no formal way of quantifying the relationship between scale-to-scale energy transfer and the presence of spatial structures has been presented so far. In the Letter we quantify such a relationship analyzing the results of a two-dimensional high-resolution Hall magnetohydrodynamic simulation. In particular, we employ the technique of space filtering to derive a spectral energy flux term which defines, in any point of the computational domain, the signed flux of spectral energy across a given wave number. The characterization of coherent structures is performed by means of a traditional two-dimensional wavelet transformation. By studying the correlation between the spectral energy flux and the wavelet amplitude, we demonstrate the strong relationship between scale-to-scale transfer and coherent structures. Furthermore, by conditioning one quantity with respect to the other, we are able for the first time to quantify the inhomogeneity of the turbulence cascade induced by topological structures in the magnetic field. Taking into account the low space-filling factor of coherent structures (i.e., they cover a small portion of space), it emerges that 80% of the spectral energy transfer (both in the direct and inverse cascade directions) is localized in about 50% of space, and 50% of the energy transfer is localized in only 25% of space

Multiple-hour-ahead forecast of the Dst index using a combination of Long Short-Term Memory neural network and Gaussian process

In this study, we present a method that combines a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network with a Gaussian process (GP) model to provide up to 6-hr-ahead probabilistic forecasts of the Dst geomagnetic index. The proposed approach brings together the sequence modeling capabilities of a recurrent neural network with the error bars and confidence bounds provided by a GP. Our model is trained using the hourly OMNI and Global Positioning System (GPS) databases, both of which are publicly available. We first develop a LSTM network to get a single-point prediction of Dst. This model yields great accuracy in forecasting the Dst index from 1 to 6 hr ahead, with a correlation coefficient always higher than 0.873 and a root-mean-square error lower than 9.86. However, even if global metrics show excellent performance, it remains poor in predicting intense storms (Dst < −250 nT) 6 hr in advance. To improve it and to obtain probabilistic forecasts, we combine the LSTM model obtained with a GP and evaluate the hybrid predictor using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the reliability diagram. We conclude that this hybrid methodology provides improvements in the forecast of geomagnetic storms, from 1 to 6 hr ahead

Modeling radiation belt electron dynamics during GEM challenge intervals with the DREAM3D diffusion model

As a response to the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) “Global Radiation Belt Modeling Challenge,” a 3D diffusion model is used to simulate the radiation belt electron dynamics during two intervals of the Combined Release and Radiation Effects