Monitoring Covid-19 contagion growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No 2020/03, March 2020

We present an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time periods and locations, allowing for the comparative evaluation of policy approaches. We present timely results for nine European countries currently hit by the virus. From the findings, we draw four main conclusions. First, countries experiencing an explosive process (currently France, Italy and Spain), combined with high persistence of contagion shocks (observed in most countries under investigation), require swift policy measures such as quarantine, diffuse testing and even complete lockdown. Second, in countries with high persistence but lower contagion growth (currently Germany) careful monitoring should be coupled with at least “mild” restrictions such as physical distancing or isolation of specific areas. Third, in some countries, such as Norway and Denmark, where trends seem to be relatively under control and depend on daily contingencies, with low persistence, the approach to restrictive measures should be more cautious since there is a risk that social costs outweigh the benefits. Fourth, countries with a limited set of preventive actions in place (such as the Netherlands, Switzerl

Identifying the impact of the circular economy on the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods Industry Opportunities and challenges for businesses, workers and consumers – mobile phones as an example STUDY

Mobile phones, particularly smartphones, have undergone a period of rapid growth to become virtually indispensable to today's lifestyle. Yet their production, use and disposal can entail a significant environmental burden. This study looks at the opportunities and challenges that arise from implementing circular economy approaches in the mobile phone value chain. A review of the value chain and different circular approaches is complemented by a scenario analysis that aims to quantify the potential impacts of certain circular approaches such as recycling, refurbishment and lifetime extension. The study finds that there is a large untapped potential for recovering materials from both the annual flow of new mobile phones sold in Europe once they reach the end of their life and the accumulated stock of unused, so-called hibernating devices in EU households. Achieving high recycling rates for these devices can offer opportunities to reduce EU dependence on imported materials and make secondary raw materials available on the EU market. As such, policy action would be required to close the collection gap for mobile phone devices. Implementing circular approaches in the mobile phone value chain can furthermore lead to job creation in the refurbishment sector. Extending the lifetime of mobile phones can also provide CO2 mitigation benefits, particularly from displacing the production of new devices

Reflections on the EU objectives in addressing aggressive tax planning and harmful tax practices Final Report. CEPS Report November 2019

This Report analyses the EU’s instruments to tackle aggressive tax planning and harmful tax practices. Based on desk research, interviews with stakeholders and expert assessments, it considers the coherence, relevance, and added value of the EU’s approach. The instruments under analysis are found to be internally coherent and consistent with other EU policies and with the international tax agenda, in particular with the OECD/G20 BEPS framework. The Report also confirms the continued relevance of most of the original needs and problems addressed by the EU’s initiatives in the field of tax avoidance. There is also EU added value in having common EU instruments in the field to bolster coordination and harmonise the implementation of tax measures. One cross-cutting issue identified is the impact of digitalisation on corporate taxation. Against this background, the Report outlines potential improvements to the EU tax strategy such as: making EU tax systems fit for the digital era; leading the international debate on tax avoidance; enabling capacity building in Member States and developing countries; strengthening tax good governance in third countries; ensuring a consistent approach at home and abroad; achieving a level playing field for all companies; and increasing tax certainty and legal certainty

Evaluation study supporting the interim evaluation of the ISA² programme. CEPS Project Report. June 2019

In compliance with Article 13 of Decision (EU) 2015/2240 establishing the ISA2 programme, the interim evaluation assessed the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, EU added value, coherence, utility and sustainability of ISA2. Based on primary data collected from 129 consulted stakeholders, extensive desk research, and expert assessments, the evaluation confirms that ISA2 performs well in all the evaluation criteria. The objectives pursued by ISA2 are still pertinent in relation to the evolving needs and problems in the field of interoperability of digital public services, and the results achieved so far are aligned with the objectives of the programme. As ISA2 progresses and solutions are further developed, the expected results should be attained, given that the implementation of the programme is continuing as planned. There are substantial synergies and limited overlaps among ISA2 actions. Moreover, particularly strong synergies exist with the Connecting Europe Facility. ISA2 contributed to enhancing cross-border interoperability and users generally tend to be satisfied with the solutions provided. Overall, ISA2 plays a crucial role in enhancing the interoperability landscape in the European Union. In light of these findings, the evaluation outlines some measures to improve the performance of ISA2 and future editions of the programme

Institutional environment and bank behaviour : the case of European banks

We study two policies that are key to shaping the institutional environment and that can therefore influence banks' behaviour, namely monetary and macroprudential policies.In the first Chapter, we evidence the existence of the bank risk-taking channel of (un)conventional monetary policy in Europe. We show that the latter is nonlinear, i.e., the effects of monetary policy interest rates (the total assets on the balance sheet of central banks) on banking risk are stronger below (above) a certain threshold.The second Chapter mainly explores the nexus between the low interest rate environment and bank profitability. Our findings suggest that monetary policy’s main instrument adversely affects net interest margins, but its effect on overall profitability is unclear. Nevertheless, when policy interest rates are particularly low, it seems that European banks succeed in increasing their profitability despite a compression of their net interest income.In the third Chapter, we examine the role of macroprudential tools in a turbulent institutional environment. The outbreak of the COVID-19 is likely to worsen households' and businesses' capacity to pay off their debt. The Chapter bridges the gap between the flexible use of macroprudential tools and their yet unknown effects in the event of a shock to risk premia of mortgages and corporate loans. Both our empirical and theoretical models corroborate that an ease scenario of macroprudential policy allows mitigating the adverse effects stemming from such a shock. In particular, the DSGE model shows preference for relaxing the Loan-to-Value ratio over the Capital Requirement Ratio.Nous étudions deux politiques jouant un rôle clé dans l'évolution et la métamorphose du cadre institutionnel et qui sont donc à même d'influencer le comportement des banques, à savoir la politique monétaire et la politique macroprudentielle.Dans le premier chapitre, nous mettons en évidence l'existence du canal de la prise de risque bancaire de la politique monétaire (non)conventionnelle en Europe. Nous démontrons que ce dernier est non linéaire, c'est-à-dire que les effets des taux d'intérêt de la politique monétaire (du total des actifs au bilan des banques centrales) sur le risque bancaire sont plus forts en-dessous (au-dessus) d'un certain seuil.Le deuxième chapitre explore le lien entre l'environnement des taux d'intérêt bas et la rentabilité des banques. Nos résultats suggèrent que le principal outil de la politique monétaire a un effet négatif sur les marges d'intérêt nettes, mais que son effet sur la rentabilité globale n'est pas clair. Néanmoins, lorsque les taux d'intérêt directeurs sont particulièrement bas, il semble que les banques européennes parviennent à accroître leur rentabilité malgré une compression de leurs revenus d'intérêts nets.Le troisième chapitre examine le rôle des outils macroprudentiels dans un environnement institutionnel turbulent. L'apparition de la COVID-19 est de nature à aggraver la capacité des ménages et des entreprises à rembourser leurs dettes. Le chapitre fait le lien entre l'utilisation flexible des instruments macroprudentiels et leurs effets encore inconnus en cas de choc sur les primes de risque des prêts hypothécaires et des prêts aux entreprises. Nos modèles empiriques et théorique corroborent le fait qu'un scénario d'assouplissement des outils macroprudentiels permet d'atténuer les effets négatifs découlant d'un tel choc. En particulier, le modèle DSGE montre une préférence pour l'assouplissement du ratio prêt-sur-valeur au détriment du ratio d'adéquation des fonds propres

How do European banks portray the effect of policy interest rates and prudential behavior on profitability?

article 100950European policy interest rates have been low and trending downwards for almost a decade now and expectations do not seem to change. Hence, in such an environment, this paper investigates whether and how banks’ prudential behavior has influenced profitability across the European banking sector from 1999 to 2015. Using a dynamic panel model, we clearly find that banks’ financial resilience, proxied by the asymmetric Z-score and two financial ratios, affects profits: more cautious banks record higher profits. This result is confirmed by the two overall measures of profitability, namely the Return on Average Assets and Equity, but not for the Net Interest Margins. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that monetary policy's main instrument adversely affects bank income. Nevertheless, when policy interest rates are particularly low, the effect on Net Interest Margin is still positive, while the effect on the overall profitability becomes negative. These results induce that European banks succeed in increasing their profitability despite a compression of their net interest income

Environnement institutionnel et comportement des banques : le cas des banques européennes

Nous étudions deux politiques jouant un rôle clé dans l'évolution et la métamorphose du cadre institutionnel et qui sont donc à même d'influencer le comportement des banques, à savoir la politique monétaire et la politique macroprudentielle.Dans le premier chapitre, nous mettons en évidence l'existence du canal de la prise de risque bancaire de la politique monétaire (non)conventionnelle en Europe. Nous démontrons que ce dernier est non linéaire, c'est-à-dire que les effets des taux d'intérêt de la politique monétaire (du total des actifs au bilan des banques centrales) sur le risque bancaire sont plus forts en-dessous (au-dessus) d'un certain seuil.Le deuxième chapitre explore le lien entre l'environnement des taux d'intérêt bas et la rentabilité des banques. Nos résultats suggèrent que le principal outil de la politique monétaire a un effet négatif sur les marges d'intérêt nettes, mais que son effet sur la rentabilité globale n'est pas clair. Néanmoins, lorsque les taux d'intérêt directeurs sont particulièrement bas, il semble que les banques européennes parviennent à accroître leur rentabilité malgré une compression de leurs revenus d'intérêts nets.Le troisième chapitre examine le rôle des outils macroprudentiels dans un environnement institutionnel turbulent. L'apparition de la COVID-19 est de nature à aggraver la capacité des ménages et des entreprises à rembourser leurs dettes. Le chapitre fait le lien entre l'utilisation flexible des instruments macroprudentiels et leurs effets encore inconnus en cas de choc sur les primes de risque des prêts hypothécaires et des prêts aux entreprises. Nos modèles empiriques et théorique corroborent le fait qu'un scénario d'assouplissement des outils macroprudentiels permet d'atténuer les effets négatifs découlant d'un tel choc. En particulier, le modèle DSGE montre une préférence pour l'assouplissement du ratio prêt-sur-valeur au détriment du ratio d'adéquation des fonds propres.We study two policies that are key to shaping the institutional environment and that can therefore influence banks' behaviour, namely monetary and macroprudential policies.In the first Chapter, we evidence the existence of the bank risk-taking channel of (un)conventional monetary policy in Europe. We show that the latter is nonlinear, i.e., the effects of monetary policy interest rates (the total assets on the balance sheet of central banks) on banking risk are stronger below (above) a certain threshold.The second Chapter mainly explores the nexus between the low interest rate environment and bank profitability. Our findings suggest that monetary policy’s main instrument adversely affects net interest margins, but its effect on overall profitability is unclear. Nevertheless, when policy interest rates are particularly low, it seems that European banks succeed in increasing their profitability despite a compression of their net interest income.In the third Chapter, we examine the role of macroprudential tools in a turbulent institutional environment. The outbreak of the COVID-19 is likely to worsen households' and businesses' capacity to pay off their debt. The Chapter bridges the gap between the flexible use of macroprudential tools and their yet unknown effects in the event of a shock to risk premia of mortgages and corporate loans. Both our empirical and theoretical models corroborate that an ease scenario of macroprudential policy allows mitigating the adverse effects stemming from such a shock. In particular, the DSGE model shows preference for relaxing the Loan-to-Value ratio over the Capital Requirement Ratio

Monitoring COVID-19 contagion growth

We present a statistical model that can be employed to monitor the time evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve and the associated reproduction rate. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases and dynamically adapt its estimates to explain the evolution of contagion in terms of a short-term and long-term dependence of case counts, allowing for a comparative evaluation of health policy measures. We have applied the model to 2020 data from the countries most hit by the virus. Our empirical findings show that the proposed model describes the evolution of contagion dynamics and determines whether contagion growth can be affected by health policies. Based on our findings, we can draw two health policy conclusions that can be useful for all countries in the world. First, policy measures aimed at reducing contagion are very useful when contagion is at its peak to reduce the reproduction rate. Second, the contagion curve should be accurately monitored over time to apply policy measures that are cost-effective. © 2021 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd