A look at past elections shows the 2016 presidential race will be extremely tight

The 2016 presidential election is well over two years away and there is much we do not know about how the race will unfold. The candidates, economic conditions, and just about everything else are factors that have not yet been determined. Drawing on elections from the past sixty years, James E. Campbell argues that the 2016 race will almost certainly fall within a 45-55 percent split, and is likely to be even closer. He writes that such close races are good for election forecasters because it is more difficult to be too far off from the actual vote, but that the compressed outcomes can unrealistically raise the expectations of forecast accuracy

Potential repellency of cedarwood oil from a novel extraction method to stored product insects

Producers lose 10-30% of crops during storage, processing, and marketing after harvest each year to stored product insects (1,2). Globally, there has been a rise in insecticide resistance to phosphine, the most common fumigant for these pests (3). As a result, producers need to diversify post-harvest IPM methods to preserve existing tools. One alternative strategy is push-pull, whereby a repellent is used to “push” an insect away from the commodity of interest, while also simultaneously “pulling” the insects to an alternate location away from the commodity using an attractant (4)(Fig. 1). This system notably requires a long-distance repellent. One potential repellent includes cedarwood oil, which has shown repellency to termites and ants (5,6). A novel extraction process for this compound has been developed, which leaves many of its main constituents intact (7). However, to date, this compound has never been assessed for repellency to post-harvest insects

Novel methodology for in situ carbon dioxide enrichment of benthic ecosystems

Future climate change will likely represent a major stress to shallow aquatic and coastal marine communities around the world. Most climate change research, particularly in regards to increased pCO2 and ocean acidification, relies on ex situ mesocosm experimentation, isolating target organisms from their environment. Such mesocosms allow for greater experimental control of some variables, but can often cause unrealistic changes in a variety of environmental factors, leading to “bottle effects.” Here we present an in situ technique of altering dissolved pCO2within nearshore benthic communities (e.g., macrophytes, algae, and/or corals) using submerged clear, open-top chambers. Our technique utilizes a flow-through design that replicates natural water flow conditions and minimizes caging effects. The clear, open-top design additionally ensures that adequate light reaches the benthic community. Our results show that CO2 concentrations and pH can be successfully manipulated for long durations within the open-top chambers, continuously replicating forecasts for the year 2100. Enriched chambers displayed an average 0.46 unit reduction in pH as compared with ambient chambers over a 6-month period. Additionally, CO2 and HCO3 – concentrations were all significantly higher within the enriched chambers. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this technique in comparison to other ex situ mesocosm designs used for climate change research

State-space based mass event-history model I: many decision-making agents with one target

A dynamic decision-making system that includes a mass of indistinguishable agents could manifest impressive heterogeneity. This kind of nonhomogeneity is postulated to result from macroscopic behavioral tactics employed by almost all involved agents. A State-Space Based (SSB) mass event-history model is developed here to explore the potential existence of such macroscopic behaviors. By imposing an unobserved internal state-space variable into the system, each individual's event-history is made into a composition of a common state duration and an individual specific time to action. With the common state modeling of the macroscopic behavior, parametric statistical inferences are derived under the current-status data structure and conditional independence assumptions. Identifiability and computation related problems are also addressed. From the dynamic perspectives of system-wise heterogeneity, this SSB mass event-history model is shown to be very distinct from a random effect model via the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) in a numerical experiment. Real data showing the mass invasion by two species of parasitic nematode into two species of host larvae are also analyzed. The analysis results not only are found coherent in the context of the biology of the nematode as a parasite, but also include new quantitative interpretations.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS189 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Mechanisms of Bicarbonate Use Influence the Photosynthetic Carbon Dioxide Sensitivity of Tropical Seagrasses

The photosynthetic bicarbonate () use properties of three widely distributed tropical seagrasses were compared using a series of laboratory experiments. Photosynthetic rates of Thalassia testudinum, Halodule wrightii, and Syringodium filiforme were monitored in an enclosed chamber while being subjected to shifts in pH and dissolved inorganic carbon. Specific mechanisms of seagrass use were compared by examining the photosynthetic effects of the carbonic anhydrase inhibitor acetazolamide (AZ). All seagrasses increased photosynthetic rates with reduced pH, suggesting a large effect of dissolved aqueous carbon dioxide (CO2(aq)). However, there was considerable interspecific variation in pH response. T. testudinum was highly sensitive, increasing photosynthetic rates by 100% as the pH was reduced from 8.2 to 7.4, whereas rates in H. wrightii and S. filiforme increased by only 20% over a similar range, and displayed prominent photosynthetic plateaus, indicating an increased capacity for use. Additional incubations that manipulated [] under constant [CO2(aq)] support these findings, as only H. wrightii and S. filiforme increased photosynthetic rates with increasing []. T. testudinum responded to AZ addition, indicating that carbonic anhydrase enzymes facilitate limited use. H. wrightii and S. filiforme showed no response to AZ, suggesting alternate, more efficient mechanisms of use. Estimated kinetic parameters, Ks(CO2) and Vmax, revealed interspecific variation and further support these conclusions. Variation in photosynthetic pH responses and AZ sensitivity indicate distinctions in the carbon use properties of seagrasses exposed to similar environmental conditions. These results suggest that not all seagrasses will similarly respond to future increases in CO2(aq) availability. Attention towards potential shifts in competitive interactions within multispecific seagrass beds is warranted

Interspecific variation in the elemental and stable isotope content of seagrasses in South Florida

The elemental (C, N, and P) and isotope (δ13C, δ15N) content of leaves of the seagrasses Thalassia testudinum, Halodule wrightii, and Syringodium filiforme were measured across a 10 000 km2 survey of the seagrass communities of South Florida, USA, in 1999 and 2000. Trends at local and broad spatial scales were compared to examine interspecific variation in the seagrass characteristics often used as ecological indicators. The elemental and stable isotope contents of all species were variable and demonstrated marked interspecific variation. At broad spatial scales, mean N:P ratios were lowest for T. testudinum (36.5 ± 1.1) and S. filiforme (38.9 ± 1.3), and highest for H. wrightii (44.1 ± 1.8). Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) were highest for S. filiforme (–6.2 ± 0.2‰), intermediate for T. testudinum (–8.6 ± 0.2‰), and lowest for H. wrightii (–10.6 ± 0.3‰). Stable nitrogen isotopes (δ15N) were heaviest for T. testudinum (2.0 ± 0.1‰), and lightest for H. wrightii (1.0 ± 0.3‰) and S. filiforme (1.6 ± 0.2‰). Site depth was negatively correlated to δ13C for all species, while δ15N was positively correlated to depth for H. wrightii and S. filiforme. Similar trends were observed in local comparisons, suggesting that taxon-specific physiological/ecological properties strongly control interspecific variation in elemental and stable isotope content. Temporal trends in δ13C were measured, and revealed that interspecific variation was displayed throughout the year. This work documents interspecific variation in the nutrient dynamics of 3 common seagrasses in South Florida, indicating that interpretation of elemental and stable isotope values needs to be species specific

Development of a Conceptual Model of Groundwater Flow, Chesterfield County, South Carolina

2010 S.C. Water Resources Conference - Science and Policy Challenges for a Sustainable Futur

Contamination of Groundwater by the Fumigants Ethylene Dibromide (EDB) and Dibromochloropropane (DBCP) Near McBee, South Carolina

2010 S.C. Water Resources Conferences - Science and Policy Challenges for a Sustainable Futur