Years of life that could be saved from prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) causes premature death and loss of life expectancy worldwide. Its primary and secondary prevention can result in a significant number of years of life saved. AIM: To assess how many years of life are lost after HCC diagnosis. METHODS: Data from 5346 patients with first HCC diagnosis were used to estimate lifespan and number of years of life lost after tumour onset, using a semi-parametric extrapolation having as reference an age-, sex- and year-of-onset-matched population derived from national life tables. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2014, HCC lead to an average of 11.5 years-of-life lost for each patient. The youngest age-quartile group (18-61 years) had the highest number of years-of-life lost, representing approximately 41% of the overall benefit obtainable from prevention. Advancements in HCC management have progressively reduced the number of years-of-life lost from 12.6 years in 1986-1999, to 10.7 in 2000-2006 and 7.4 years in 2007-2014. Currently, an HCC diagnosis when a single tumour <2 cm results in 3.7 years-of-life lost while the diagnosis when a single tumour 65 2 cm or 2/3 nodules still within the Milan criteria, results in 5.0 years-of-life lost, representing the loss of only approximately 5.5% and 7.2%, respectively, of the entire lifespan from birth. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence results in the loss of a considerable number of years-of-life, especially for younger patients. In recent years, the increased possibility of effectively treating this tumour has improved life expectancy, thus reducing years-of-life lost

Predicting in-hospital mortality from Coronavirus Disease 2019: A simple validated app for clinical use

Backgrounds Validated tools for predicting individual in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 are lacking. We aimed to develop and to validate a simple clinical prediction rule for early identification of inhospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. Methods and findings We enrolled 2191 consecutive hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from three Italian dedicated units (derivation cohort: 1810 consecutive patients from Bergamo and Pavia units; validation cohort: 381 consecutive patients from Rome unit). The outcome was in-hospital mortality. Fine and Gray competing risks multivariate model (with discharge as a competing event) was used to develop a prediction rule for in-hospital mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by Brier score in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Seven variables were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality: age (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.07\u20131.09), male sex (HR 1.62, 95%CI 1.30\u20132.00), duration of symptoms before hospital admission &lt;10 days (HR 1.72, 95%CI 1.39\u20132.12), diabetes (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.02\u20131.45), coronary heart disease (HR 1.40 95% CI 1.09\u20131.80), chronic liver disease (HR 1.78, 95%CI 1.16\u20132.72), and lactate dehydrogenase levels at admission (HR 1.0003, 95%CI 1.0002\u20131.0005). The AUC was 0.822 (95%CI 0.722\u20130.922) in the derivation cohort and 0.820 (95%CI 0.724\u20130.920) in the validation cohort with good calibration. The prediction rule is freely available as a web-app (COVID-CALC: https://sites.google.com/community. unipa.it/covid-19riskpredictions/c19-rp). Conclusions A validated simple clinical prediction rule can promptly and accurately assess the risk for inhospital mortality, improving triage and the management of patients with COVID-1

The evolutionary scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update

Background & Aims: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma is changing worldwide. This study aimed at evaluating the changing scenario of aetiology, presentation, management and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy during the last 15\ua0years. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 5192 hepatocellular carcinoma patients managed in 24 centres from 2000 to 2014. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2000\u20132004, 2005\u20132009 and 2010\u20132014). Results: The main results were as follows: (i) progressive patient aging; (ii) progressive expansion of non-viral cases and, namely, of \u201cmetabolic\u201d hepatocellular carcinomas; (iii) increasing proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed during a correct (semi-annual) surveillance programme; (iv) favourable cancer stage migration; (v) increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients), particularly after 2009, of both viral and non-viral patients presenting with an early- or intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. Conclusions: During the last 15\ua0years several aetiological and clinical features of hepatocellular carcinoma patients have changed, as their management. The observed improvement of overall survival was owing both to the wider use of semi-annual surveillance, expanding the proportion of tumours that qualified for curative treatments, and to the improved outcome of loco-regional treatments

Recalibrating survival prediction among patients receiving trans\u2010arterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background &amp; Aims The Pre-TACE-Predict model was devised to assess prognosis of patients treated with trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, before entering clinical practice, a model should demonstrate that it performs a useful role. Methods We performed an independent external validation of the Pre-TACE model in a cohort that differs in setting and time period from the one that generated the original model. Data from 826 patients treated with TACE for naïve HCC (2008-2018) were used to assess calibration and discrimination of the Pre-TACE-Predict model. Results The four risk-categories identified by the Pre-TACE-Predict model had gradient monotonicity, with median survivals of 52.0, 36.2, 29.9, and 14.1 months respectively. However, predicted survivals systematically underestimated observed survivals (R2: 0.667). A recalibration was adopted maintaining fixed the prognostic index and modifying the baseline survival function. This resulted in an almost perfect calibration (R2: 0.995) in all the four risk categories. Cox regressions showed that aetiology and macrovascular invasion, included in the Pre-TACE-Predict model, had no prognostic impact in the present study population, and that coefficients for tumour size and multiplicity were overestimated. The c-index was similar to that of the m-HAP-III, but higher than those of HAP, m-HAP-II and the six-and-twelve models. Conclusions The recalibration of Pre-TACE-Predict model improved the estimation of survival probabilities of HCC patients treated with TACE. The highest discriminatory ability of the Pre-TACE-model in comparison to other available models, together with risk stratification and recalibration, makes it the best prognostic tool currently available for these patients