Counterproductive counternarcotic strategies? A study of the effects of opium eradication in the presence of imperfect capital markets and sharecropping arrangements

In this paper, we model the economic incentives surrounding opium crop production at farm level in Afghanistan. Specifically, we examine the impact of eradication policies when opium is used as a means of obtaining credit, and when the crops are produced in sharecropping arrangements. The theoretical analysis suggests that when perfect credit markets are available, an increased risk of having the opium poppy eradicated will lead to less land being allocated to opium poppy. Thus, with perfect credit markets, the eradication policy is likely to have the intended effect of lowering opium crop production. However, when opium is sold on futures markets as a means of obtaining credit, the effects of opium eradication are no longer clear-cut: in some cases the outcome may actually increase the land allocated to opium poppy. Finally, the results indicate that when opium is produced in sharecropping arrangements, increased risk of opium eradication will unambiguously make the tenants worse off, while landlords may actually benefit.Opium; Eradication; Futures markets; Sharecropping

Can a Social Safety Net Affect Farmers’ Crop Portfolios? A Study of the Productive Safety Net Programme in Ethiopia

In this paper, we examine whether a minimum level of ensured consumption from a social safety net has the potential of breaking the vicious circle of risk avoidance and low return in African agriculture. We study how the implementation of a social safety net programme in Ethiopia has affected the value, risk and composition of farmers’ crop portfolios. The effects of programme participation on the value and risk of the crop portfolio are examined in a Just-Pope production function, and the effects of programme participation on composition of the crop portfolio are tested in a set of acreage response models. The empirical analysis is based on unique household panel data that allow us to control for unobserved heterogeneity. No significant effect on the value and risk of the crop portfolio could be found. However, the programme seems to have brought about some changes in the land allocated to different crops. The greatest effect is towards increased cultivation of perennials, which are high-value, high-risk crops in this part of Ethiopia.Crop choice; Social safety nets; Food-for-work programmes; PSNP; Ethiopia

Autotuning of a PID-controller

This master's thesis has been performed in cooperation with TAC in Malmö. The TAC group makes commercial buildings smarter by integrating and automating the technical systems required to run them. TAC:s control systems use PID-controllers to control processes such as heating and ventilation. The PID-controllers are often badly tuned, since it is too timeconsuming to calculate good PID-parameters at the time of deployment. A simple way of finding PID-parameters that give faster control loops is needed. To solve this problem the thesis proposes an autotuner based on the areamethod Method of Moments and the AMIGO tuning rules. The implementation of the autotuner using IEC 61131 is described. The resulting autotuner is tested on simulated processes and gives satisfactory results. The thesis also includes practical insights on the use of the autotuner

Value at Risk for Emerging Markets' Funds

Value at Risk is a commonly used risk measure which calculates the smallest losses you risk to lose from having an asset, given a certain risk level and time period. Even though Value at Risk is applicable to all different types of assets, some studies suggest that this risk measure is not suitable for developing countries/emerging markets. This is because these countries’ assets generate very obscure or questionable return data. This essay applies some Value at Risk-models on top-performing funds from a number of low- and middle income countries in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, and examines how well they fit these models. We calculate basic VaR for three confidence levels and two respective distributions (Normal distribution and Student’s t-distribution), and compare these with GARCH and EGARCH models with the same distributions and confidence levels. We also calculate VaR with the historical simulation (HS) method. We calculate all values both with respect to short and long position. Our results indicate that no kind of model works significantly well for the countries’ funds in general. The models applicable to most countries were of the basic VaR and HS kind. We also find that the highest confidence level, 99%, was the one generating most acceptable models

Analyzing the future of technology and society. Scania and the case of the Russian fuel market.

Issue of study: The development of technology and society is closely linked. Mutual dependency and complex interrelationships make straightforward analysis of issues regarding the future of technology and society hard to perform. Therefore, the study addresses the question of how organizations should describe and analyze the interactions of technology and society in order to gain a better understanding of what the future may bring. Purpose: • To develop a method for analysis of the future course of issues regarding technology and society in interaction. • To apply and test the developed method through a case study, where it is used to analyze the future of the Russian fuel market. Method: In the study, a holistic systems approach is applied. Through combining theory about socio-technical systems with elements from scenario-based techniques, the FUTSTEPS method is developed. The socio-technical systems theory is used to understand and structure the complex interactions of technology and society. The scenario-based techniques form the basis of the developed FUTSTEPS method, which enables a systematic description, analysis, and presentation of empirical data in relevant issues regarding the future of technology and society. The FUTSTEPS method is applied and tested in a case study of the Russian fuel market. Conclusions: The FUTSTEPS method is a tool for finding the most important factors determining an issue involving technology and society. The developed theoretical framework connects socio-technical systems to scenario-based techniques, thus filling the latter with structured content. The FUTSTEPS method allows for a more formalized and rigorous step-by-step construction of scenarios for issues regarding the future of technology and society than previous techniques. It can be used for analysis of a range of complex multiparty issues. The case study showed that the four most important fuels for the future in Russia are CNG, diesel, DME, and E-fuels. The constructed extreme scenarios connected each fuel to a certain development of society. Among the identified key factors, the development in the European Union and Asian countries, together with the level of Russian protectionism, were found to have the largest impact on the future course. In order to anticipate what the future will bring, Scania should monitor five of the key factors and conduct additional research in five key areas of knowledge

The microscopic magnetic model of Cu(OH)Cl

http://tartu.ester.ee/record=b2693417~S1*es

The Future of ABC at Sandvik Tooling

Abstract Title: The Future of ABC at Sandvik Tooling – Incorporating ABC with information systems in order to drive business development from a cost point of view. Authors: Jenny Andersson and Camilla Salomonsson. Supervisor: Charlotta Johnsson – Department of Automatic Control, Lund University. Carl-Henric Nilsson – Department of Business Administration, Lund University. Mats Jacobsson – Tooling Supply Finance, Sandvik Tooling. Core Issue: Many companies have not been successful with their implementation of the ABC model. The number of companies using the ABC model for allocating overhead cost is still low. Companies who once used the ABC model have abandoned it. The ABC model has also been accused of not capturing the complexity within a company, causing information system, and other information systems such as Excel, to exceed their capacity. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to examine how a company based ABC model corresponds with the theoretical model, in order to give feedback to theory from a practical case and vice versa. The relationship between ABC models and information systems will also be evaluated in order to find means to optimize the link between them. Points for evaluating information systems from an ABC point of view will be presented. Methodology: An abductive approach and a qualitative method have been used for this study. Information has mainly been gathered through interviews in order to build the empirical chapter. Secondary sources such as academic articles have been used for the theoretical framework. Conclusions: A conclusion we have drawn is that complexity is a villain when it comes to designing ABC models and the relating information systems. The compatibility of Sandvik Tooling’s information systems in terms of ABC is deemed as inadequate. We recommend the development of an ABC module to the existing information systems. In order to make it possible to develop/design and implement system supporting ABC, standardization of the terminology, as well as parts of the calculation making up the standard cost, is necessary. Keywords: Activity Based Costing, ABC, Cost Allocation Process, Overhead Cost, Sandvik Tooling, Information System, Transactions

Giving credit to the microlenders. Formal microlending, credit constraints and adverse selection: a case study of shrimp farmers in Bangladesh

Smallholder farmers have long been denied access to formal credit, largely because of the high administrative fees associated with loans. A possible solution to this problem, which has become increasingly popular, is the use of microcredit financing, where innovative means of securing the loans, such as peer monitoring, are used. This paper examines the effectiveness of formal microcredit schemes as compared to the traditional informal credit sources in a rural shrimp farming district of Bangladesh. We compare the two types of credit by studying the technical and allocative efficiencies of the two groups of borrowers. The findings suggest that farmers using both types of microcredit have difficulty accessing credit, often over-utilising labour in order to reduce the need for inputs that require cash at the beginning of the season, creating inefficiencies in production. However, the informal lenders, with their closer ties to individual farmers, were more successful in identifying those small-holders most likely to make the best use of the borrowed funds. Thus, although formal microcredit schemes do not impose the high administrative fees of traditional formal lending, they do not necessarily solve the problem of how to select successful borrowers.Economics, Bangladesh, Shrimp Farming, Fisheries, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Financial Economics, Livestock Production/Industries,

Can the forecast of the cotton price be improved using a model based upon economic variables?

The purpose of this thesis is to find a model, which is based on economic variables that can forecast the cotton price better than commonly used benchmark models. A vector error correction model is used because of the existence of non-stationary variables and one cointegration relation in the data. Two types of forecasting methods are used for out-of sample predictions. The dynamic forecasting in this thesis is used to predict the cotton price six days ahead and the static forecast only predicts one day ahead. Three different types of estimation windows are used to see which gives the best forecasting results. The residuals are then used to calculate the root mean squared error, RMSE, enabling the comparison with random walks and autoregressive processes. The static forecasts did result in significant better forecasts than the benchmark models while the dynamic forecasts did not produce significantly better nor worse results than the benchmark models. Including economic variables when predicting the cotton price only significantly improves static forecasts of one-day ahead predictions. A sign prediction test was conducted in order to test the static method for one-day speculative purposes, and significant results were found

Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin : present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change

We present estimates of the present and future deposition of atmospheric nitrogen into the Baltic Sea made using the Eulerian chemical transport model MATCH, and compare these with earlier model estimates. The average total nitrogen deposition for periods of five to ten years from 1992 to 2001 was estimated to be in the range of 261-300 Gg N yr(-1). The deposition across the whole catchment area for 2001 was estimated to be 1.55-1.73 Tg N yr(-1). Inter-annual variability of nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea was calculated to be in the range of 5.1%-8.0%. Investigating one climate change scenario using emissions for year 2000 indicated a rather small impact on total deposition of nitrogen due to climate change, i.e. increase of total nitrogen deposition by similar to 5% by the end of the 21st century as compared with present conditions. The combined effect of climate change and future changes in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen to the atmosphere remains an open question. Additional climate change scenarios using different combinations of global and regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios need to be explored