Exploring the Relationships of Fire Occurrence Variables by Means of CART and MARS Models

Recently, in the framework of long-term fire risk assessment, researcher have implemented spatial and non-spatial non-parametric prediction models to discover complex relationships among wildfire variables. The main scope was to overcome the assumption of spatial stationarity in the relationship among the response variable and the predictors, assumed by the traditional regression techniques. The present article aims to test and compare the potential of the CART and MARS models in predicting fire occurrence at local scale. The test is performed in the Arno River Basin, a fire prone area located in the central part of Italy. Road network, topographic variables and population data were implemented to build up fire prediction model using 1621 ignition points recorded during the period 1997-2003. The models produce two prediction maps slightly similar. In general the CART model overperform compare to the MARS one. Nonetheless, the MARS model produces a smoothened surface that theoretically better follow the probability of a fire event.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

The European Fire Database: technical specifications and data submission

The European Fire Database is an important component of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), the EC focal point of information on forest fires established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate General for Environment to provide up to date and harmonized information on forest fires in Europe. As of 2014 EFFIS is part of the Forest Information System for Europe (FISE), following the new EU Forest Strategy adopted in 2013. The Fire Database is the largest repository of information on individual fire events in Europe and is the end product of a long collaboration between European countries and the European Commission on forest fires. It contains forest fire information compiled by member countries of the EFFIS network. Fire data provided each year by national authorities are checked, stored and managed by JRC within the fire database. Each country has its own internal rules of reporting on individual fire events which is in most cases done mainly for administrative purposes. To widen the exploitation potential of the national fire data within the European Fire Database and to enhance data harmonization and data quality control, the common data set up has been gradually modified over the years. A common and in depth understanding of latest definitions and data specifications is of paramount importance. This report intends contributing to these efforts illustrating in detail the data stored in the European Fire Database, their definitions, the formats required for country data submission and the process of data validation and storage carried out at JRC.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Brief on forestry biomass production

This brief on forestry biomass production is one out of a series of Bioeconomy Knowledge Centre briefs which intend to provide independent evidence for EU policy in this field. The following are the key results: 1. The land area covered by forests in the EU has been expanding at an average rate of 0.26% or 0.4 million hectares (Mha) per year from 2000 to 2015 (slowing down in 2010-2015). It reached 161 Mha (38% of the EU territory) in 2015. Of this area, 84% is potentially available for wood supply. 2. The total aboveground biomass stocked in EU forests reached 18 600 Mt in 2013. It has been increasing since 2000 at a rate of approximately 1.3% per year (see section 2), although the forest growth has been slowing down slightly, mostly due to ageing of forests. 3. The average annual harvest level – 281 Mt (of which 224 Mt are removed from the forest) – amounts to 63% of the growth rate (measured as net annual increment) of EU forests – 444 Mt per year. Since fellings are underreported, the actual harvest rate is likely to be higher, but still not exceeding the growth rate. 4. Detailed and harmonised quantitative data on forest management, and especially wood removals, present severe gaps and uncertainties at EU level, with marked differences between Member States. While significant progress has been made, efforts to improve the current assessments should be pursued. 5. Sustainable wood production implies reconciling the full range of ecosystem services which the forests provide.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

The EU Bioeconomy: Supporting an Employment Shift Downstream in the Wood-Based Value Chains?

Monitoring employment in the European wood-based bioeconomy requires reliable, consistent, and comparable statistics across subsectors and over time. Statistics concerning employment in wood-based industries - the main component of the forest-based bioeconomy - must be processed carefully to cope with differences in definitions and estimation methods. In addition, specific methods must be applied to estimate wood-based employment in sectors including also non-wood activities. In this study, we first delineate the boundaries of the wood-based bioeconomy, and then create a harmonised time series on employment for the identified sectors. Finally, we estimate the share of wood-based employment along the value chain in all sectors using wood. According to the results, forestry and extended wood-based value chains employed 4.5 million people in the EU-28 in 2018. Employment in wood-based value chains decreased between 2008 and 2013 in the aftermaths of the financial crisis. Continuously decreasing employment - most apparent in the manufacture of solid wood products and pulp and paper - results from increasing productivity and a decreasing demand for graphic paper. Further, most of the wood-based employment in the EU takes place in downstream parts of value chains, although the weight of the primary sector is still high in some Eastern European countries

Fundamentos y utilización de índices meteorológicos de peligro de incendio

Presentamos en este trabajo una seríe de reflexiones acerca de la importancia de los índices meteorológicos de peligro de incendio en la prevención de incendios forestales. Se presentan los principales sistemas de peligro utilizados actualmente, tanto en Norteamérica como en Europa. Asimismo, se plantean las fases que se deben considerar en el momento de utilizar un índice de peligro y los problemas derivados de la espacialización de dichos índices. Frente a los métodos más tradicionales en la prevención de incendios forestales se apunta la posibilidad de utilizar las imágenes de satélite para estimar el peligro de incendio.The importance of meteorological fire danger rating indices in fire prevention and presuppression is underlined. Fire danger rating systems currently used in North America and Europa are briefly illustrated. In addition, the main steps and issues to the addressed when operationally setting up a fire danger rating system are commented, with special stress on spot data spatialisation problems. As an alternative to the traditional methods of assessing fire danger level, the possible use of satellite images is also discusse

Fundamentos y utilización de índices meteorológicos de peligro de incendio

Presentamos en este trabajo una seríe de reflexiones acerca de la importancia de los índices meteorológicos de peligro de incendio en la prevención de incendios forestales. Se presentan los principales sistemas de peligro utilizados actualmente, tanto en Norteamérica como en Europa. Asimismo, se plantean las fases que se deben considerar en el momento de utilizar un índice de peligro y los problemas derivados de la espacialización de dichos índices. Frente a los métodos más tradicionales en la prevención de incendios forestales se apunta la posibilidad de utilizar las imágenes de satélite para estimar el peligro de incendio.The importance of meteorological fire danger rating indices in fire prevention and presuppression is underlined. Fire danger rating systems currently used in North America and Europa are briefly illustrated. In addition, the main steps and issues to the addressed when operationally setting up a fire danger rating system are commented, with special stress on spot data spatialisation problems. As an alternative to the traditional methods of assessing fire danger level, the possible use of satellite images is also discusse

Harmonized classification scheme of fire causes in the EU adopted for the European Fire Database of EFFIS

The information on the causes of forest fires is of paramount importance to support the environmental and civil protection policies and design appropriate prevention measure. At the European level a simple common scheme with 4 fire causes classes (deliberate, accident/negligence, natural and unknown) has been used to record information on fire causes since 1992. European countries use national schemes which in most cases are much more detailed than the simple 4 common classes, but they are not harmonized and detailed cross country comparisons are difficult. The need for a new EU scheme, more detailed than the 4 basic categories and harmonized across European countries, to be recorded in the Fire Database of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), has been identified to improve the information level and the common knowledge on the origin of forest fires in Europe. The new scheme has been conceived to be applicable with limited changes to the previous country settings, preserving as much as possible the historical data series of each country and exploiting at the same time as much as possible the level of detail of the information available. This report provides a detailed description of the new scheme, its main features with precise definition of each cause class and the mapping of the historical national systems to the new harmonized system. The scheme is hierarchical and is made of 29 fire cause classes, 8 groups and 6 categories. The explicit statement on the level of certainty in the attribution of the cause to a fire event has been introduced as a key element in the new scheme. This harmonized fire cause classification scheme is expected to be adopted by the countries participating to the EFFIS network in the coming years, and therefore be recorded in the European Fire Database, with a significant added value for the knowledge about the origin of forest fires in Europe.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Analysis of Forest Fire Camages in Natura 2000 Sites During the 2007 Fire Season

This report presents the assessment of the damages caused by the forest fires in the EU Mediterranean countries (Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) during the fire season of 2007, with special emphasis on the impact of these fires in Natura 2000 sites. It presents an overall short summary for the whole region and a detail analysis for each of the EU Mediterranean countries. For each country the report describes the tendency in the areas burnt by fires in the country during the last 27 years using the EU Fire database of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS); in the case of Cyprus the report is limited to the last 8 years. Maps of burnt areas obtained through the processing of satellite imagery in EFFIS are presented next to the list of Natura 2000 sites affected by the fires. Lastly, the report includes the list of plant and animal species of special interest in the Natura 2000 that were likely affected by the forest fires.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Forest Fire Damage in Natura 2000 sites 2000-2012

Forest fires are a threat for the forest and natural areas in Europe. Over 65 000 fires take place every year in the European Union, burning, on average, half a million hectares of the European landscape. Economic losses due to forest fires in the European Union territory are estimated in over 2 billion Euro every year. Areas protected under the Natura 2000 scheme are no exception to the damage caused by forest fires. Every year, approximately 80 000 ha are burned within the Natura 2000 sites. In the study period of this report, between the years 2000 and 2012, 1 044 917 ha of Natura 2000 protected areas were burnt, corresponding to 3.28% of the total Natura 2000 area in the affected countries. The environmental and economic damage of these fires is difficult to estimate, since often fires affect protected and endangered species living in these protected habitats. The current report analyses the impact of forest fires in Natura 2000 sites during the period 2000 to 2012. Special emphasis is put on the analysis of damages caused by large fires in the EU Mediterranean region, where most of these fires occur.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat