Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil

This study was funded by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) [grant number 402834/2020-8]. MEB received a technological and industrial scholarship from CNPq [grant number 315854/2020-0]. LSF received a master's scholarship from Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) [finance code 001]. SP was supported by São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) [grant number 2018/24037-4]. AMB received a technological and industrial scholarship from CNPq [grant number 402834/2020-8]. CF was supported by FAPESP [grant numbers 2019/26310-2 and 2017/26770-8]. MQMR received a postdoctoral scholarship from CAPES [grant number 305269/2020-8]. LMS received a technological and industrial scholarship from CNPq [grant number 315866/2020-9]. RSK has been supported by CNPq [grant number 312378/2019-0]. PIP has been supported by CNPq [grant number 313055/2020-3]. JAFD-F has been supported by CNPq productivity fellowship and the National Institutes for Science and Technology in Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation (INCT-EEC), supported by MCTIC/CNPq [grant number 465610/2014-5] and Goiás Research Foundation (FAPEG) [grant number 201810267000023]. RAK has been supported by CNPq [grant number 311832/2017-2] and FAPESP [grant number 2016/01343-7]. CMT has been supported by CNPq productivity fellowship and the National Institute for Health Technology Assessment (IATS) [grant number 465518/2014-1].Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

Prevalence of the STK15 F31I polymorphism and its relationship with mammographic density

Several studies have identified the single nucleotide polymorphism STK15 F31I as a low-penetrance risk allele for breast cancer, but its prevalence and risk association in the Brazilian population have not been determined. The goal of this study was to identify the frequency of this polymorphism in the Brazilian setting. Considering the high degree of admixture of our population, it is of fundamental importance to validate the results already reported in the literature and also to verify the relationship between this variant and breast cancer risk. A total of 750 women without breast cancer were genotyped using the TaqMan PCR assay for STK15 F31I polymorphism. Clinical information was obtained from review of the medical records and mammographic density from the images obtained using the BI-RADS System. The estimated risk of developing cancer was calculated according to the Gail model. The genotypic frequencies observed in this study were 4.5, 38.7, and 56.6%, respectively, for the STK15 F31I AA, AT and TT genotypes. The AT and AA genotypes were encountered significantly more often in premenopausal women with moderately dense, dense and heterogeneously dense breast tissue (P = 0.023). In addition, the presence of the TT genotype was significantly associated with age at menarche ≥12 years (P = 0.023). High mammographic density, associated with increased breast cancer risk, was encountered more frequently in premenopausal women with the risk genotypes STK15 F31I AA and AT. The genotypic frequencies observed in our Brazilian sample were similar to those described in other predominantly European populations

Prevalence of ERα-397 PvuII C/T, ERα-351 XbaI A/G and PGR PROGINS polymorphisms in Brazilian breast cancer-unaffected women

Polymorphisms of hormone receptor genes have been linked to modifications in reproductive factors and to an increased risk of breast cancer (BC). In the present study, we have determined the allelic and genotypic frequencies of the ER&#945;-397 PvuII C/T, ER&#945;-351 XbaI A/G and PGR PROGINS polymorphisms and investigated their relationship with mammographic density, body mass index (BMI) and other risk factors for BC. A consecutive and unselected sample of 750 Brazilian BC-unaffected women enrolled in a mammography screening program was recruited. The distribution of PGR PROGINS genotypic frequencies was 72.5, 25.5 and 2.0% for A1A1, A1A2 and A2A2, respectively, which was equivalent to that encountered in other studies with healthy women. The distribution of ER&#945; genotypes was: ER&#945;-397 PvuII C/T: 32.3% TT, 47.5% TC, and 20.2% CC; ER&#945;-351 XbaI A/G: 46.3% AA, 41.7% AG and 12.0% GG. ER&#945; haplotypes were 53.5% PX, 14.3% Px, 0.3% pX, and 32.0% px. These were significantly different from most previously published reports worldwide (P < 0.05). Overall, the PGR PROGINS genotypes A2A2 and A1A2 were associated with fatty and moderately fatty breast tissue. The same genotypes were also associated with a high BMI in postmenopausal women. In addition, the ER&#945;-351 XbaI GG genotype was associated with menarche &#8805;12 years (P = 0.02). ER&#945; and PGR polymorphisms have a phenotypic effect and may play an important role in BC risk determination. Finally, if confirmed in BC patients, these associations could have important implications for mammographic screening and strategies and may be helpful to identify women at higher risk for the disease

Prevalence of ERα-397 PvuII C/T, ERα-351 XbaI A/G and PGR PROGINS polymorphisms in Brazilian breast cancer-unaffected women

Polymorphisms of hormone receptor genes have been linked to modifications in reproductive factors and to an increased risk of breast cancer (BC). In the present study, we have determined the allelic and genotypic frequencies of the ERα-397 PvuII C/T, ERα-351 XbaI A/G and PGR PROGINS polymorphisms and investigated their relationship with mammographic density, body mass index (BMI) and other risk factors for BC. A consecutive and unselected sample of 750 Brazilian BC-unaffected women enrolled in a mammography screening program was recruited. The distribution of PGR PROGINS genotypic frequencies was 72.5, 25.5 and 2.0% for A1A1, A1A2 and A2A2, respectively, which was equivalent to that encountered in other studies with healthy women. The distribution of ERα genotypes was: ERα-397 PvuII C/T: 32.3% TT, 47.5% TC, and 20.2% CC; ERα-351 XbaI A/G: 46.3% AA, 41.7% AG and 12.0% GG. ERα haplotypes were 53.5% PX, 14.3% Px, 0.3% pX, and 32.0% px. These were significantly different from most previously published reports worldwide (P < 0.05). Overall, the PGR PROGINS genotypes A2A2 and A1A2 were associated with fatty and moderately fatty breast tissue. The same genotypes were also associated with a high BMI in postmenopausal women. In addition, the ERα-351 XbaI GG genotype was associated with menarche ≥12 years (P = 0.02). ERα and PGR polymorphisms have a phenotypic effect and may play an important role in BC risk determination. Finally, if confirmed in BC patients, these associations could have important implications for mammographic screening and strategies and may be helpful to identify women at higher risk for the disease

Prevalence of the STK15 F31I polymorphism and its relationship with mammographic density

Several studies have identified the single nucleotide polymorphism STK15 F31I as a low-penetrance risk allele for breast cancer, but its prevalence and risk association in the Brazilian population have not been determined. The goal of this study was to identify the frequency of this polymorphism in the Brazilian setting. Considering the high degree of admixture of our population, it is of fundamental importance to validate the results already reported in the literature and also to verify the relationship between this variant and breast cancer risk. A total of 750 women without breast cancer were genotyped using the TaqMan PCR assay for STK15 F31I polymorphism. Clinical information was obtained from review of the medical records and mammographic density from the images obtained using the BI-RADS System. The estimated risk of developing cancer was calculated according to the Gail model. The genotypic frequencies observed in this study were 4.5, 38.7, and 56.6%, respectively, for the STK15 F31I AA, AT and TT genotypes. The AT and AA genotypes were encountered significantly more often in premenopausal women with moderately dense, dense and heterogeneously dense breast tissue (P = 0.023). In addition, the presence of the TT genotype was significantly associated with age at menarche &#8805;12 years (P = 0.023). High mammographic density, associated with increased breast cancer risk, was encountered more frequently in premenopausal women with the risk genotypes STK15 F31I AA and AT. The genotypic frequencies observed in our Brazilian sample were similar to those described in other predominantly European populations