Endemic Dengue Associated with the Co-Circulation of Multiple Viral Lineages and Localized Density-Dependent Transmission

Dengue is one of the most important infectious diseases of humans and has spread throughout much of the tropical and subtropical world. Despite this widespread dispersal, the determinants of dengue transmission in endemic populations are not well understood, although essential for virus control. To address this issue we performed a phylogeographic analysis of 751 complete genome sequences of dengue 1 virus (DENV-1) sampled from both rural (Dong Thap) and urban (Ho Chi Minh City) populations in southern Viet Nam during the period 2003–2008. We show that DENV-1 in Viet Nam exhibits strong spatial clustering, with likely importation from Cambodia on multiple occasions. Notably, multiple lineages of DENV-1 co-circulated in Ho Chi Minh City. That these lineages emerged at approximately the same time and dispersed over similar spatial regions suggests that they are of broadly equivalent fitness. We also observed an important relationship between the density of the human host population and the dispersion rate of dengue, such that DENV-1 tends to move from urban to rural populations, and that densely populated regions within Ho Chi Minh City act as major transmission foci. Despite these fluid dynamics, the dispersion rates of DENV-1 are relatively low, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City where the virus moves less than an average of 20 km/year. These low rates suggest a major role for mosquito-mediated dispersal, such that DENV-1 does not need to move great distances to infect a new host when there are abundant susceptibles, and imply that control measures should be directed toward the most densely populated urban environments

Systems Based Study of the Therapeutic Potential of Small Charged Molecules for the Inhibition of IL-1 Mediated Cartilage Degradation.

Inflammatory cytokines are key drivers of cartilage degradation in post-traumatic osteoarthritis. Cartilage degradation mediated by these inflammatory cytokines has been extensively investigated using in vitro experimental systems. Based on one such study, we have developed a computational model to quantitatively assess the impact of charged small molecules intended to inhibit IL-1 mediated cartilage degradation. We primarily focus on the simplest possible computational model of small molecular interaction with the IL-1 system-direct binding of the small molecule to the active site on the IL-1 molecule itself. We first use the model to explore the uptake and release kinetics of the small molecule inhibitor by cartilage tissue. Our results show that negatively charged small molecules are excluded from the negatively charged cartilage tissue and have uptake kinetics in the order of hours. In contrast, the positively charged small molecules are drawn into the cartilage with uptake and release timescales ranging from hours to days. Using our calibrated computational model, we subsequently explore the effect of small molecule charge and binding constant on the rate of cartilage degradation. The results from this analysis indicate that the small molecules are most effective in inhibiting cartilage degradation if they are either positively charged and/or bind strongly to IL-1α, or both. Furthermore, our results showed that the cartilage structural homeostasis can be restored by the small molecule if administered within six days following initial tissue exposure to IL-1α. We finally extended the scope of the computational model by simulating the competitive inhibition of cartilage degradation by the small molecule. Results from this model show that small molecules are more efficient in inhibiting cartilage degradation by binding directly to IL-1α rather than binding to IL-1α receptors. The results from this study can be used as a template for the design and development of more pharmacologically effective osteoarthritis drugs, and to investigate possible therapeutic options