Surface flux transport modeling for solar cycles 15--21: effects of cycle-dependent tilt angles of sunspot groups

We model the surface magnetic field and open flux of the Sun from 1913 to 1986 using a surface flux transport model, which includes the observed cycle-to-cycle variation of sunspot group tilts. The model reproduces the empirically derived time evolution of the solar open magnetic flux, and the reversal times of the polar fields. We find that both the polar field and the axial dipole moment resulting from this model around cycle minimum correlate with the strength of the following cycle.Comment: Accepted for publication by Ap

An investigation of pulsar searching techniques with the Fast Folding Algorithm

Here we present an in-depth study of the behaviour of the Fast Folding Algorithm, an alternative pulsar searching technique to the Fast Fourier Transform. Weaknesses in the Fast Fourier Transform, including a susceptibility to red noise, leave it insensitive to pulsars with long rotational periods (P > 1 s). This sensitivity gap has the potential to bias our understanding of the period distribution of the pulsar population. The Fast Folding Algorithm, a time-domain based pulsar searching technique, has the potential to overcome some of these biases. Modern distributed-computing frameworks now allow for the application of this algorithm to all-sky blind pulsar surveys for the first time. However, many aspects of the behaviour of this search technique remain poorly understood, including its responsiveness to variations in pulse shape and the presence of red noise. Using a custom CPU-based implementation of the Fast Folding Algorithm, ffancy, we have conducted an in-depth study into the behaviour of the Fast Folding Algorithm in both an ideal, white noise regime as well as a trial on observational data from the HTRU-S Low Latitude pulsar survey, including a comparison to the behaviour of the Fast Fourier Transform. We are able to both confirm and expand upon earlier studies that demonstrate the ability of the Fast Folding Algorithm to outperform the Fast Fourier Transform under ideal white noise conditions, and demonstrate a significant improvement in sensitivity to long-period pulsars in real observational data through the use of the Fast Folding Algorithm.Comment: 19 pages, 15 figures, 3 table

Mesogranular structure in a hydrodynamical simulation

We analyse mesogranular flow patterns in a three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulation of solar surface convection in order to determine its characteristics. We calculate divergence maps from horizontal velocities obtained with the Local Correlation Tracking (LCT) method. Mesogranules are identified as patches of positive velocity divergence. We track the mesogranules to obtain their size and lifetime distributions. We vary the analysis parameters to verify if the pattern has characteristic scales. The characteristics of the resulting flow patterns depend on the averaging time and length used in the analysis. We conclude that the mesogranular patterns do not exhibit intrinsic length and time scales

On the Snow Line in Dusty Protoplanetary Disks

The snow line, in Hayashi's (1981) model, is where the temperature of a black body that absorbed direct sunlight and re-radiated as much as it absorbed, would be 170~K. It is usually assumed that the cores of the giant planets, e.g., Jupiter, form beyond the snow line. Since Hayashi, there have been a series of more detailed models of the absorption by dust of the stellar radiation, and of accretional heating, which alter the location of the snow line. We have attempted a "self-consistent" model of a T Tauri disk in the sense that we used dust properties and calculated surface temperatures that matched observed disks. We then calculated the midplane temperature for those disks, with no accretional heating or with small (<10^-8) accretion rates. Our models bring the snow line in to the neighbourhood of 1 AU; not far enough to explain the close planetary companions to other stars, but much closer than in recent starting lines for orbit migration scenarios.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure, to appear in ApJ,528,200

Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes

Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux was present in each hemisphere at the start of the previous cycle and how much net magnetic flux was transported across the equator during the cycle. Some of this transport is associated with the random walk of magnetic flux tubes subject to granular and supergranular buffeting, some of it is due to the advection caused by systematic cross-equatorial flows such as those associated with the inflows into active regions, and some crosses the equator during the emergence process. We aim to determine how much of the cross-equatorial transport is due to small-scale disorganized motions (treated as diffusion) compared with other processes such as emergence flux across the equator. We measure the cross-equatorial flux transport using Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms, estimating both the total and diffusive fluxes. Occasionally a large sunspot group, with a large tilt angle emerges crossing the equator, with flux from the two polarities in opposite hemispheres. The largest of these events carry a substantial amount of flux across the equator (compared to the magnetic flux near the poles). We call such events cross-equatorial flux plumes. There are very few such large events during a cycle, which introduces an uncertainty into the determination of the amount of magnetic flux transported across the equator in any particular cycle. As the amount of flux which crosses the equator determines the amount of net flux in each hemisphere, it follows that the cross-equatorial plumes introduce an uncertainty in the prediction of the net flux in each hemisphere. This leads to an uncertainty in predictions of the strength of the following cycle.Comment: A&A, accepte

Are there spurious temperature trends in the United States Climate Division database

The United States (U.S.) Climate Division data set is commonly used in applied climatic studies in the United States. The divisional averages are calculated by including all available stations within a division at any given time. The averages are therefore vulnerable to shifts in average station location or elevation over time, which may introduce spurious trends within these data. This paper examines temperature trends within the 15 climate divisions of New England, comparing the NCDC\u27s U.S. Divisional Data to the U.S. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) data. Correlation and multiple regression revealed that shifts in latitude, longitude, and elevation have affected the quality of the NCDC divisional data with respect to the USHCN. As a result, there may be issues with regard to their use in decadal- to century-scale climate change studies

Perceiving and expressing feelings through actions in relation to individual differences in empathic traits : the Action and Feelings Questionnaire (AFQ)

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Waldmeier Effect in Sunspot Cycles

We discuss two aspects of the Waldmeier Effect, namely (1) the rise times of sunspot cycles are anti-correlated to their strengths (WE1) and (2) the rates of rise of the cycles are correlated to their strengths (WE2). From analysis of four different data sets we conclude that both WE1 and WE2 exist in all the data sets. We study these effects theoretically by introducing suitable stochastic fluctuations in our regular solar dynamo model.Comment: Magnetic Coupling between the Interior and Atmosphere of the Sun; Astrophysics and Space Science Proceeding