Integración de programación lineal y sig en la asignación de un óptimo uso del suelo encaminado a evitar los procesos de deforestación Estudio de caso desarrollado para el Cantón Saraguro provincia de Loja-Ecuador.

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have had a wide range of applications in the science world as it´s modeling tools are based on mathematical concepts. Although they have not been developed jointly with the GIS, we can combine both these methods to develop descriptive characteristics and simulate any natural event. Thus the modeling techniques with the GIS application have become an important tool for decision makers, especially in the environmental sciences. This research supports a model of land use using Linear Programming (LP) as a mathematical methodology. The final results give us an optimized land use model for Saraguro County. This County belongs to the Loja Province and most of their inhabitants are indigenous people whom are dedicated to farm activities specially cattle ranching.El uso de los Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) en sus campos de aplicación hoy en día presenta una muy amplia variedad, pero por otro lado las herramientas de modelamiento fundamentadas en las matemáticas principalmente y que se han desarrollado de manera separada a los SIG; resultan también en herramientas que se pueden integrar a los SIG o servirse de ellos; de tal manera que facilitan tanto la descripción de fenómenos como la simulación de los mismos que acontecen en la naturaleza. Por este motivo ha hecho que los modelamientos con aplicaciones a los SIG sean herramientas de primera mano al momento de tomar decisiones. El presente trabajo, se basa en un modelamiento de uso del suelo, utilizando a la Programación Lineal (LP), como herramienta matemática, cuyo resultado final nos presenta la optimización de usos del suelo en el cantón Saraguro, perteneciente a la Provincia de Loja, cuya población indígena en su mayoría, realiza actividades de agricultura, la cual ha desfavorecido de sobremanera a la conservación de los remanentes de bosques nativos. Por tal razón la optimización de su uso basado en la producción del sitio nos plantea un nuevo recurso para ayudar a mitigar los procesos de deforestación. Usando a los SIG como herramientas en la toma de decisiones al mismo tiempo que nos ayudan a plantear un modelo de cambio de uso del suelo optimizado. El modelo propuesto es el desarrollo y aplicación de un nuevo concepto en la simulación de los usos del suelo basados en un agente de –cambios- como la autonomía en la toma de decisiones. Las características biofísicas del suelo y su economía potencial (basado en la información de macro-económico) se consideran dentro de las condiciones existentes en el área de estudio, para llegar a la opción del uso de la tierra

Compositional diversity of rehabilitated tropical lands supports multiple ecosystem services and buffers uncertainties

High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services

Compositional diversity of rehabilitated tropical lands supports multiple ecosystem services and buffers uncertainties

High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services

Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land‐use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decisionmaking. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decisionmakers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies

Structural composition of various land-use portfolios for increasing levels of accepted economic risk when organic banana is included and has high (a) or low economic risks (b).

<p>Structural composition of various land-use portfolios for increasing levels of accepted economic risk when organic banana is included and has high (a) or low economic risks (b).</p

Ecuadorian Banana Farms Should Consider Organic Banana with Low Price Risks in Their Land-Use Portfolios

<div><p>Organic farming is a more environmentally friendly form of land use than conventional agriculture. However, recent studies point out production tradeoffs that often prevent the adoption of such practices by farmers. Our study shows with the example of organic banana production in Ecuador that economic tradeoffs depend much on the approach of the analysis. We test, if organic banana should be included in economic land-use portfolios, which indicate how much of the land is provided for which type of land-use. We use time series data for productivity and prices over 30 years to compute the economic return (as annualized net present value) and its volatility (with standard deviation as risk measure) for eight crops to derive land-use portfolios for different levels of risk, which maximize economic return. We find that organic banana is included in land-use portfolios for almost every level of accepted risk with proportions from 1% to maximally 32%, even if the same high uncertainty as for conventional banana is simulated for organic banana. A more realistic, lower simulated price risk increased the proportion of organic banana substantially to up to 57% and increased annual economic returns by up to US$ 187 per ha. Under an assumed integration of both markets, for organic and conventional banana, simulated by an increased coefficient of correlation of economic return from organic and conventional banana (ρ up to +0.7), organic banana holds significant portions in the land-use portfolios tested only, if a low price risk of organic banana is considered. We conclude that uncertainty is a key issue for the adoption of organic banana. As historic data support a low price risk for organic banana compared to conventional banana, Ecuadorian farmers should consider organic banana as an advantageous land-use option in their land-use portfolios.</p></div

Maximum expected economic return achievable of diversified land-use portfolios for various levels of potentially accepted economic risk compared to economic returns of single land-use options.

<p>Maximum expected economic return achievable of diversified land-use portfolios for various levels of potentially accepted economic risk compared to economic returns of single land-use options.</p

Correlation coefficients of land-use options.

<p>Correlation coefficients of land-use options.</p

Structural composition of various land-use portfolios without organic banana for increasing levels of accepted economic risk.

<p>Structural composition of various land-use portfolios without organic banana for increasing levels of accepted economic risk.</p

Distributions of gross revenues from time series data used for bootstrapping and expected distribution under the normality assumption.

<p>Organic bananas as well as forestry options were modelled by means of assumed normal distributions.</p