An Alternative Interpretation of Statistical Mechanics

In this paper I propose an interpretation of classical statistical mechanics that centers on taking seriously the idea that probability measures represent complete states of statistical mechanical systems. I show how this leads naturally to the idea that the stochasticity of statistical mechanics is associated directly with the observables of the theory rather than with the microstates (as traditional accounts would have it). The usual assumption that microstates are representationally significant in the theory is therefore dispensable, a consequence which suggests interesting possibilities for developing non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and investigating inter-theoretic answers to the foundational questions of statistical mechanics

A unique Valanginian paleoenvironment at an iron ore deposit near Zengővárkony (Mecsek Mts, South Hungary), and a possible genetic model

Abstract The spatially restricted Early Valanginian iron ore (limonite) and manganese deposit at Zengõvárkony (Mecsek Mts, southern Hungary) contains a rich, strongly limonitized, remarkably large-sized (specimens are 30–70% larger than those at their type localities) brachiopod-dominated (mainly Lacunosella and Nucleata) megafauna and a diverse crustacean microfauna, which indicates a shallow, nutrient-rich environment possibly linked to an uplifted block, and/or a hydrothermal vent

Expression and subcellular localization of cyclin D1 protein in epithelial ovarian tumour cells

The expression of cyclin D1 protein in tumour sections from 81 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer was analysed using immunohistochemistry. The tumours that overexpressed cyclin D1 in more than 10% of neoplastic cells were considered positive. Thus overexpression of cyclin D1 was observed in 72/81 (89%) of the cases examined. Protein was detected in both the nucleus and the cytoplasm in 24/81 (30%) and localized exclusively in the cytoplasm in 48/81 (59%) of the tumours. Cyclin D1 was overexpressed in both borderline and invasive tumours. There was no association between protein overexpression and tumour stage and differentiation. Furthermore, no correlation between cyclin D1 expression and clinical outcome was observed. However, in tumours overexpressing cyclin D1 (n = 72), the proportion displaying exclusively cytoplasmic localization of protein was higher in those with serous compared with non-serous histology (P = 0.004, odds ratio 4.8, 95% confidence interval 1.4–19.1). Western analysis using a monoclonal antibody to cyclin D1 identified a 36 kDa protein in homogenates from seven tumours displaying cytoplasmic only and one tumour demonstrating both nuclear and cytoplasmic immunostaining. Using restriction fragment length polymorphism polymerase chain reaction and PCR-multiplex analysis, amplification of the cyclin D1 gene (CCNDI) was detected in 1/29 of the tumours demonstrating overexpression of cyclin D1 protein. We conclude that deregulation of CCND1 expression leading to both cytoplasmic and nuclear protein localization is a frequent event in ovarian cancer and occurs mainly in the absence of gene amplification. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Autoantibody Positivity in Type 1 Diabetes Cases

The genetic basis of autoantibody production is largely unknown outside of associations located in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region. The aim of this study is the discovery of new genetic associations with autoantibody positivity using genome-wide association scan single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data in type 1 diabetes (T1D) patients with autoantibody measurements. We measured two anti-islet autoantibodies, glutamate decarboxylase (GADA, n = 2,506), insulinoma-associated antigen 2 (IA-2A, n = 2,498), antibodies to the autoimmune thyroid (Graves') disease (AITD) autoantigen thyroid peroxidase (TPOA, n = 8,300), and antibodies against gastric parietal cells (PCA, n = 4,328) that are associated with autoimmune gastritis. Two loci passed a stringent genome-wide significance level (p<10(-10)): 1q23/FCRL3 with IA-2A and 9q34/ABO with PCA. Eleven of 52 non-MHC T1D loci showed evidence of association with at least one autoantibody at a false discovery rate of 16%: 16p11/IL27-IA-2A, 2q24/IFIH1-IA-2A and PCA, 2q32/STAT4-TPOA, 10p15/IL2RA-GADA, 6q15/BACH2-TPOA, 21q22/UBASH3A-TPOA, 1p13/PTPN22-TPOA, 2q33/CTLA4-TPOA, 4q27/IL2/TPOA, 15q14/RASGRP1/TPOA, and 12q24/SH2B3-GADA and TPOA. Analysis of the TPOA-associated loci in 2,477 cases with Graves' disease identified two new AITD loci (BACH2 and UBASH3A)

Less is Different: Emergence and Reduction Reconciled

This is a companion to another paper. Together they rebut two widespread philosophical doctrines about emergence. The first, and main, doctrine is that emergence is incompatible with reduction. The second is that emergence is supervenience; or more exactly, supervenience without reduction. In the other paper, I develop these rebuttals in general terms, emphasising the second rebuttal. Here I discuss the situation in physics, emphasising the first rebuttal. I focus on limiting relations between theories and illustrate my claims with four examples, each of them a model or a framework for modelling, from well-established mathematics or physics. I take emergence as behaviour that is novel and robust relative to some comparison class. I take reduction as, essentially, deduction. The main idea of my first rebuttal will be to perform the deduction after taking a limit of some parameter. Thus my first main claim will be that in my four examples (and many others), we can deduce a novel and robust behaviour, by taking the limit, N goes to infinity, of a parameter N. But on the other hand, this does not show that that the infinite limit is "physically real", as some authors have alleged. For my second main claim is that in these same examples, there is a weaker, yet still vivid, novel and robust behaviour that occurs before we get to the limit, i.e. for finite N. And it is this weaker behaviour which is physically real. My examples are: the method of arbitrary functions (in probability theory); fractals (in geometry); superselection for infinite systems (in quantum theory); and phase transitions for infinite systems (in statistical mechanics).Comment: 75 p

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

This online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com on June 20, 2019BACKGROUND:Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS:We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS:From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION:Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Christopher J L Murray ... Azmeraw T Amare ... Habtamu Abera Areri ... Peter S Azzopardi ... Bernhard T Baune ... Liliana G Ciobanu ... Garumma Tolu Feyissa ... Tiffany K Gill ... Ratilal Lalloo ... Zohra S Lassi ... Jean Jacques Noubiap ... Andrew T Olagunju ... Engida Yisma ... et al. (GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A Novel Ecdysone Receptor Mediates Steroid-Regulated Developmental Events during the Mid-Third Instar of Drosophila

The larval salivary gland of Drosophila melanogaster synthesizes and secretes glue glycoproteins that cement developing animals to a solid surface during metamorphosis. The steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) is an essential signaling molecule that modulates most of the physiological functions of the larval gland. At the end of larval development, it is known that 20E—signaling through a nuclear receptor heterodimer consisting of EcR and USP—induces the early and late puffing cascade of the polytene chromosomes and causes the exocytosis of stored glue granules into the lumen of the gland. It has also been reported that an earlier pulse of hormone induces the temporally and spatially specific transcriptional activation of the glue genes; however, the receptor responsible for triggering this response has not been characterized. Here we show that the coordinated expression of the glue genes midway through the third instar is mediated by 20E acting to induce genes of the Broad Complex (BRC) through a receptor that is not an EcR/USP heterodimer. This result is novel because it demonstrates for the first time that at least some 20E-mediated, mid-larval, developmental responses are controlled by an uncharacterized receptor that does not contain an RXR-like component