Energy-balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed

Free Flyer Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) and Climate Services Mission

NOAA's planned Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) mission will fly along with the NOAA user service payloads Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS) and Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT). In ' order to guarantee continuity in the 33-year solar irradiance climate data record, TSIS must be launched in time to overlap with current on-orbit solar irradiance instruments. Currently TSIS is moving towards a launch rcadin~ss date of January 2015. TSIS provides for continuation of the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) ,currently onboard NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) platform, launched in January 2003. The difficulty of ensuring continuity has increased due to the launch failure of NASA's Glory mission with its improved TIM. Achieving the needed overlap must now rely on extending SORCE. and maintaining the TSIS schedule. TSIS is one component of a NASA-NOAA joint program (JPSS) planned to transition certain climate observations to operational mode. We summarize issues of continuity, improvements being made to the TIM and 81M sensors, and plans to provide for traceability of total and spectral irradiance measurements to ground-based cryogenic standards

Solar Spectral Irradiance and Climate

Spectrally resolved solar irradiance is recognized as being increasingly important to improving our understanding of the manner in which the Sun influences climate. There is strong empirical evidence linking total solar irradiance to surface temperature trends - even though the Sun has likely made only a small contribution to the last half-century's global temperature anomaly - but the amplitudes cannot be explained by direct solar heating alone. The wavelength and height dependence of solar radiation deposition, for example, ozone absorption in the stratosphere, absorption in the ocean mixed layer, and water vapor absorption in the lower troposphere, contribute to the "top-down" and "bottom-up" mechanisms that have been proposed as possible amplifiers of the solar signal. New observations and models of solar spectral irradiance are needed to study these processes and to quantify their impacts on climate. Some of the most recent observations of solar spectral variability from the mid-ultraviolet to the near-infrared have revealed some unexpected behavior that was not anticipated prior to their measurement, based on an understanding from model reconstructions. The atmospheric response to the observed spectral variability, as quantified in climate model simulations, have revealed similarly surprising and in some cases, conflicting results. This talk will provide an overview on the state of our understanding of the spectrally resolved solar irradiance, its variability over many time scales, potential climate impacts, and finally, a discussion on what is required for improving our understanding of Sun-climate connections, including a look forward to future observations

Bounded cascade clouds: albedo and effective thickness

International audienceIf climate models produced clouds having liquid water amounts close to those observed, they would compute a mean albedo that is often much too large, due to the treatment of clouds as plane-parallel. An approximate lower-bound for this "plane-parallel albedo bias" may be obtained from a fractal model having a range of optical thicknesses similar to those observed in marine stratocumulus, since they are more nearly plane-parallel than most other cloud types. We review and extend results from a model which produces a distribution of liquid water path having a lognormal-like probability density and a power-law wavenumber spectrum, with parameters determined by stratocumulus observations. As the spectral exponent approaches -1, the simulated cloud approaches a well-known multifractal, referred to as the "singular model", but when the exponent is -5/3, similar to what is observed, the cloud exhibits qualitatively different scaling properties, the socalled "bounded model". The mean albedo for bounded cascade clouds is a function of a fractal parameter, 0 f), which is given as an analytic function of f. California stratocumulus have a mean fractal parameter (f) ? 0.5, relative albedo bias of 15%, and an effective thickness 30% smaller than the mean thickness (? ? 0.7). For typical observed values of mean liquid water and (f), the effective thickness approximation gives a plane-parallel albedo within 3% of the mean albedo

The shortwave radiative forcing bias of liquid and ice clouds from MODIS observations

We present an assessment of the plane-parallel bias of the shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) of liquid and ice clouds at 1 deg scales using global MODIS (Terra and Aqua) cloud optical property retrievals for four months of the year 2005 representative of the meteorological seasons. The (negative) bias is estimated as the difference of SWCRF calculated using the Plane-Parallel Homogeneous (PPH) approximation and the Independent Column Approximation (ICA). PPH calculations use MODIS-derived gridpoint means while ICA calculations use distributions of cloud optical thickness and effective radius. Assisted by a broadband solar radiative transfer algorithm, we find that the absolute value of global SWCRF bias of liquid clouds at the top of the atmosphere is about 6 W m<sup>−2</sup> for MODIS overpass times while the SWCRF bias for ice clouds is smaller in absolute terms by about 0.7 W m<sup>−2</sup>, but with stronger spatial variability. If effective radius variability is neglected and only optical thickness horizontal variations are accounted for, the absolute SWCRF biases increase by about 0.3–0.4 W m<sup>−2</sup> on average. Marine clouds of both phases exhibit greater (more negative) SWCRF biases than continental clouds. Finally, morning (Terra)–afternoon (Aqua) differences in SWCRF bias are much more pronounced for ice clouds, up to about 15% (Aqua producing stronger negative bias) on global scales, with virtually all contribution to the difference coming from land areas. The substantial magnitude of the global SWCRF bias, which for clouds of both phases is collectively about 4 W m<sup>−2</sup> for diurnal averages, should be considered a strong motivation for global climate modelers to accelerate efforts linking cloud schemes capable of subgrid condensate variability with appropriate radiative transfer schemes

Fast Reactor Fuel Type and Reactor Safety Performance

Fast Reactor Fuel Type and Reactor Safety Performance R. Wigeland , Idaho National Laboratory J. Cahalan, Argonne National Laboratory The sodium-cooled fast neutron reactor is currently being evaluated for the efficient transmutation of the highly-hazardous, long-lived, transuranic elements that are present in spent nuclear fuel. One of the fundamental choices that will be made is the selection of the fuel type for the fast reactor, whether oxide, metal, carbide, nitride, etc. It is likely that a decision on the fuel type will need to be made before many of the related technologies and facilities can be selected, from fuel fabrication to spent fuel reprocessing. A decision on fuel type should consider all impacts on the fast reactor system, including safety. Past work has demonstrated that the choice of fuel type may have a significant impact on the severity of consequences arising from accidents, especially for severe accidents of low probability. In this paper, the response of sodium-cooled fast reactors is discussed for both oxide and metal fuel types, highlighting the similarities and differences in reactor response and accident consequences. Any fast reactor facility must be designed to be able to successfully prevent, mitigate, or accommodate all consequences of potential events, including accidents. This is typically accomplished by using multiple barriers to the release of radiation, including the cladding on the fuel, the intact primary cooling system, and most visibly the reactor containment building. More recently, this has also included the use of ‘inherent safety’ concepts to reduce or eliminate the potential for serious damage in some cases. Past experience with oxide and metal fuel has demonstrated that both fuel types are suitable for use as fuel in a sodium-cooled fast reactor. However, safety analyses for these two fuel types have also shown that there can be substantial differences in accident consequences due to the neutronic and thermophysical properties of the fuel and their compatibility with the reactor coolant, with corresponding differences in the challenges presented to the reactor developers. Accident phenomena are discussed for the sodium-cooled fast reactor based on the mechanistic progression of conditions from accident initiation to accident termination, whether a benign state is achieved or more severe consequences are expected. General principles connecting accident phenomena and fuel properties are developed from the oxide and metal fuel safety analyses, providing guidelines that can be used as part of the evaluation for selection of fuel type for the sodium-cooled fast reactor

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

We report a series of experiments to explore clima~ responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations