Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models: Is the Workhorse Model Identified?

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks the speed at which precision improves. It does not require any additional programming; a researcher just needs to generate artificial data and estimate the model with different T. Applying this to Smets and Wouters'(2007) medium size US model, we find that while exogenous shock processes are well identified, most of the parameters in the structural equations are not.Bayesian Estimation, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, Identification.

Assessment of ecological quality status of Küçükçekmece Bay (Marmara Sea) by applying BENTIX, AMBI, BOPA and BO2A biotic indexes

This study was carried out to explore the effectiveness of different biotic indexes in the Marmara Sea. The assessment of ecological quality status (EQS) was performed by applying the biotic indexes BENTIX, AMBI, BOPA, BO2A and Shannon-Wienerdiversity, in combination with the estimation of total organic carbon (TOC) content of sediments. BOPA and BO2A indexes tended to overestimate the EQS of the stations. BENTIX was the most efficient index as it demonstrated conceivable EQS results with respect to TOC load and successfuly determined “acceptable” or “not acceptable” status of the stations. TOC content of sediment, which significantly correlated with several benthic measures (S, N, AMBI, BENTIX), proved to be a valuable proxy measure in evaluating the likelihood of benthic impairment. When overall EQS of northern Marmara Sea was discussed, the region was designated as ecologically disturbed with only 25.7% of the stations in acceptable status

Migrant networks and foreign direct investment

While there exists sizeable literature documenting the importance of ethnic networks for international trade, little attention has been devoted to studying the effects of networks on foreign direct investment (FDI). The existence of ethnic networks may positively affect FDI by promoting information flows across international borders and by serving as a contract enforcement mechanism. This paper investigates the link between the presence of migrants in the United States and U.S. FDI in the migrants'countries of origin, taking into account the potential endogeneity concerns. The results suggest that U.S. FDI abroad is positively correlated with the presence of migrants from the host country. The data further indicate that the relationship between FDI and migration is driven by the presence of migrants with a college education.Population Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Anthropology,Human Migrations&Resettlements

Comparison of leaf stomatal features in some local and foreign apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) genotypes

The objective of this study was to determine the leaf stomatal features of some local and foreign apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) cultivars. Stomata frequency, size and stomatal conductance of leaves of twentyapricot genotypes from inside and outside of Turkey were measured. The leaf stomatal frequency significantly varied among the apricot cultivars. The highest leaf stomata frequency was found in cv.Orange Red (349 stomata/mm2) and lowest was in cv. Cnef (182.2 stomata/mm2). Mean stomata size was 81.8 m. In 2006 stomatal conductance was the lowest (84 mmol m-2 s-1) in ‘Roxana’ and the highest (263 mmol m-2 s-1) in ‘Thyrinthe’ cultivars. In 2007, the lowest stomatal conductance (143 mmol m-2 s-1) was found in ‘Hasanbey’ cultivar and the highest (405 mmol m-2 s-1) was in ‘Cnef’ cultivar. Generally in the second year counductance values were higher which was probably due to higher values of maximum air temperature. The differences in leaf stomatal conductance values that existed among the genotypes can be taken into consideration as selection criteria for apricots to be grown in regions with higher summer temperatures

Implementation of horizontal well CBM/ECBM technology and the assessment of effective CO2 storage capacity in a Scottish coalfield

Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Composite Energy Ltd., the BG Group, Scottish Power and the Royal Bank of Scotland for their funding and contributions towards the research reported in this paper.Non peer reviewedPublisher PD

EFFECTS OF A TRAINING PROGRAM BASED ON LONGITUDINAL TRAINING OF ATHLETE DEVELOPMENT (LTAD) APPROACH ON GROSS MOTOR SKILLS AMONG 6-8 YEARS OLD CHILDREN

The aim of this study was to examine effects of a training program based on longitudinal training of athlete development approach on gross motor skills among 6-8 years old children. Participants of Multi Branches Talent Identification and Development Project (n = 54), Basketball School players (n = 55) and a control group (n = 50) participated in the study. Multi Branches group attended to training sessions lasted 90 minutes, three days in a week for six months. Test of Gross Motor Development-2 test was used to assess development of locomotor and object control skills of the three groups before and after 6-months training period. Wilcoxon test indicated that post-test scores of Test of Gross Motor Development-2 were significantly higher than pre-test scores for all three groups (p<.001). Kruskal Wallis test results showed that there were statistically significant differences between three groups on the object control and total scores of Test of Gross Motor Development-2 (p<.001) but no differences on the locomotor scores of the test. The development percentage of Multi Branches group was higher than those of the other two groups. As a result, it can be concluded that the training program based on Long Term Athlete Development approach improved object control skills of 6-8 years old children.  Article visualizations

General teleparallel metrical geometries

In the conventional formulation of general relativity, gravity is represented by the metric curvature of Riemannian geometry. There are also alternative formulations in flat affine geometries, wherein the gravitational dynamics is instead described by torsion and nonmetricity. These so called general teleparallel geometries may also have applications in material physics, such as the study of crystal defects. In this work, we explore the general teleparallel geometry in the language of differential forms. We discuss the special cases of metric and symmetric teleparallelisms, clarify the relations between formulations with different gauge fixings and without gauge fixing, and develop a method of recasting Riemannian into teleparallel geometries. As illustrations of the method, exact solutions are presented for the generic quadratic theory in 2, 3 and 4 dimensions.Comment: Submitted to IJGMMP for special issue metric-affine gravity tart

Probiotic Lactobacillus paracasei effect on cariogenic bacterial flora

Lactobacillus paracasei has been demonstrated to inhibit the growth of many pathogenic microbes such as Streptococcus mutans, in vitro. However, its clinical application remains unclear. Here, we examined whether a novel probiotic L. paracasei GMNL-33 may reduce the caries-associated salivary microbial counts in healthy adults. Seventy-eight subjects (aged 20 to 26) had completed this double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled study. A probiotic/test (n = 42) and a control group (n = 36) took a L. paracasei GMNL-33 and a placebo oral tablet three times per day for 2 weeks, respectively. Bacterial counts of salivary S. mutans, lactobacilli, and salivary buffer capacity were measured with chair-side kits at the beginning (T1), the completion (T2) of medication, and 2 weeks after medication (T3). The results did not show differences in the counts of S. mutans and lactobacilli between probiotic and control groups at T1, T2, and T3. Nevertheless, within the probiotic group, an interesting probiotic effect was noticed. Between T1 and T2, no inhibitory effect against S. mutans was observed. However, a significant count reduction in the salivary S. mutans was detected between T2 and T3 (p = 0.016). Thus, a 2-week period of medication via oral administration route may be needed for L. paracasei GMNL-33 to be effective in the probiotic action

Golden Horn Estuary: Description of the ecosystem and an attempt to assess its ecological quality status using various classification metrics

In this paper, we describe the pelagic and benthic ecosystem of the Golden Horn  estuary opening into the Marmara Sea. To improve the water quality of the estuary, which had long been subject to severe anthropogenic pollution (industrial, chemical, shipping),  industrial facilities were moved from the estuary in the 1980s, followed by a rehabilitation plan in the 1990s. Our results, based on chemical parameters and phytoplankton showed some signs of improvement of water conditions in the upper layer. However, macrozoobenthic findings of this study did not reflect such a recovery in bottom life.An approach to the Ecological Quality Status (EQS) assessment was performed by applying the biotic indices BENTIX, AMBI, BOPA, BO2A. Our final assessment was based on 'expert-judgements' and revealed a very disturbed overall ecosystem with 'bad' EQS for the station at the head of the estuary,  'poor' in the rest of the estuary and 'moderate' EQS only in the middle station