Perspectivas para las políticas de gestión de riesgos y crisis en la agricultura de la Unión Europea

Este artículo reflexiona sobre los principales temas en torno al reciente debate sobre la gestión de riesgos y crisis agrarias. El objetivo del análisis es identificar las políticas más probables de ser adoptadas en el corto plazo y proponer algunas reflexiones sobre perspectivas alternativas que puedan ser útiles para informar el proceso de aprobación de las políticas. El artículo comienza tratando de responder a las preguntas elevantes, como son: ¿ha aumentado realmente el riesgo global de las rentas agrarias en los últimos tiempos, especialmente como consecuencia de las reformas políticas en la mayoría de los países desarrollados? ¿Cuáles son los objetivos de la política de gestión de riesgos en la agricultura? ¿La eficiencia, la equidad o ambas? Posteriormente, se presenta una nueva perspectiva sobre las políticas de gestión de riesgos en forma de solidaridad ex –ante y se menciona el papel que los instrumentos financieros podrían desempeñar para asegurar transacciones de riesgos efectivas, acompañados de otras funciones potenciales de la acción pública. Las principales conclusiones son que se debería hacer una distinción clara entre riesgos normales empresariales y sucesos excepcionales que pueden devenir en crisis. Mientras que los primeros pueden ser eficientemente gestionados por medio de actuaciones en el estricto ámbito privado, los segundos requerirían una intervención pública activa para superar el probable fracaso de los mecanismos privados, debido a problemas de información incompleta. En todos los casos, las funciones principales de la acción pública se centran en asegurar el necesario marco institucional que permita una difusión de información a coste nulo para los agentes. Futuras investigaciones deberían incidir en campos como el desarrollo de nuevas formas de recogida, validación y difusión de información, junto a una revisión profunda de las instituciones encargadas de velar sobre la Propiedad Intelectual, la mayor integración de los mercados de seguros y mercados financieros o la definición de un marco institucional para la comercialización de productos financieros y su tratamiento fiscal

Index based compensation for weather risk in the Italian agriculture. A feasibility study based on actual historic data

The paper explores the feasibility of the use of weather index based derivatives for farms' risk management in an Italian province. Based on a combination of detailed local weather data and of data on farms' yields, various possible weather indexes are found that are highly correlated with yields of the major crops in the area. Simulations show that hedging through such index based derivatives can be effective in protecting the stability of farms' incomes, at a cost that is likely to be much lower than that of the current system of subsidized crop insurance and ex-post compensation.Agricultural risk management, weather derivatives, index based yield insurance., Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Grain reserves and food security in the Middle East and North Africa.

Aggregate stocks of major grains declined to minimal feasible levels in 2007–2008, due to high global income growth and biofuel mandates. Given these minimal stocks, prices were very sensitive to shocks, such as the Australian drought, and biofuel demand boosts due to the oil price spike. The effects of these shocks were magnified by a sequence of trade restrictions by key exporters to protect vulnerable consumers. Beginning in the 'thin' global rice market in the fall of 2007, these turned market anxiety into panic. Recognizing the unreliability of imports, vulnerable countries, including some in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), are now considering investing in strategic reserves, pursuing self sufficiency and acquiring foreign land to ensure grain supplies for domestic consumption. The associated expense and negative incentive effects on national reserves may be acceptable if they have quantitative targets related to the needs of the most vulnerable, for distribution only in emergencies. In many MENA countries, heavy subsidies on grain consumption for both rich and poor reduce the stabilizing response of consumption to price, and increase reserves needed to ensure food security. Accumulation of stocks is a more efficient strategy than pursuit of self-sufficiency in most MENA countries, as they have no comparative advantage in expanding agriculture, given restricted water supplies. Acquisition of foreign lands leaves food supplies exposed to sovereign risk and other supply chain problems beyond importers' control. MENA countries could cooperate and so smooth much of the risk posed by fluctuations in their own harvests

Testing for Separability in Household Models with Heterogeneous Behavior: A Mixture Model Approach"

Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UCB. CUDARE Working Paper 990. http://repositories.cdlib.org/are_ucb/99

Household Water Insecurity Is Positively Associated With Household Food Insecurity in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

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Predictive Periodontitis: The Most Promising Salivary Biomarkers for Early Diagnosis of Periodontitis

The primary cause of tooth loss in the industrialized world is periodontitis, a bacterial anaerobic infection whose pathogenesis is characterized by composite immune response. At present, the diagnose of periodontitis is made by a complete status check of the patient’s periodontal health; full-mouth plaque score, full-mouth bleeding score, probing depth, clinical attachment level, bleeding on probing, recessions, mobility, and migration are evaluated in order to provides a clear picture of the periodontal conditions of a single patient. Chair-side diagnostic tests based on whole saliva could be routinely used by periodontists for a very early diagnosis of periodontitis, monitoring, prognosis, and management of periodontal patients by biomarker detection, whose diagnostic validity is related to sensitivity and specificity. Recent paper reviews and meta-analyses have focused on five promising host derived biomarkers as candidate for early diagnosis of periodontitis: MMP-8 (Metalloproteinase-8), MIP-1α (Macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha), IL-1 β (Interleukin-1 beta), IL-6 (Interleukin-6), and HB (Hemoglobin), and their combinations. Chair-side Lab-on-a-chip (LOC) technology may soon become an important part of efforts to detect such biomarkers in saliva medium to improve worldwide periodontal health in developed nations as well as in underserved communities and poor countries. Their applications in preventive and predictive medicine is now fundamental, and is aimed at the early detection of risk factors or the presence or evolution of the disease, and in personalized medicine, which aims to identify tailor-made treatments for individual patients. The aim of the present paper is to be informative about host derived periodontal biomarkers and, in particular, we intend to report information about the most important immune response derived biomarkers and Hemoglobin as candidates to be routinely utilized in order to obtain a chair-side early diagnosis of periodontal disease

The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model

"The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1995, 1996). Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the Deaton and Laroque (1995, 1996) model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has low response to price and, except for sugar, there are infrequent stockouts. Observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model." [author's abstract

Feasibility analysis of an ultrasound on line diagnostic approach for oral and bone surgery

During implant surgery procedures, surgical precision is an essential prerequisite for the functional and aesthetic success of the prosthetic crown to be placed on the dental implant. A modern implant surgical approach should be standardized as much as possible to guarantee extreme precision in the insertion of the implant into the upper and lower bone jaws. Among the most common surgical errors during implant surgery there is the over-preparation of the surgical alveolus with possible damage to the contiguous anatomical structures. To avoid this problem, in the recent years, there has been an increasing attention to the development of new control techniques. In this paper, we describe an innovative ultrasound approach, which exploits the integration of an electro-acoustic transducer with the surgical drill used for realizing the alveolus in the bone that will host the implant. Specifically, he proposed approach is based on the "time-of-flight" detection technique for measuring the thickness of the residual bone subjected to the drilling. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach, here we report on a detailed numerical analysis aimed at studying the propagation of ultrasonic waves through the drill-bit and through the involved tissues. The obtained results confirm the validity of our approach, and enable for a future first prototype implementation of a hi-tech surgical drill-bit, which in general is suitable not only for dental implant surgery but also for other uses in oral surgery, maxillofacial surgery and for bone surgery

Periodontal Care as a Fundamental Step for an Active and Healthy Ageing

In the industrialized part of the world, an increasing number of people live the old age without too many restrictions due to illness or physiological impairment. This group is known as the young elderly. On the contrary, a consistent part of seniors develops a greater number of medical conditions and become more and more dependent, these are the old elderly. The first cause of tooth lost in industrialized word is periodontitis that generally strikes people older than 40 years and determines serious detriment of the stomatognatic organ. Smoking and stress are risk factors for periodontitis that are common and shared between young, adult, and older age. Diabetes mellitus, obesity, and osteoporosis are very frequent pathological situations in older age. They have been identified as cofactors in the progression of periodontitis. Many dental associations recognize the importance of continued research on oral fluids diagnostics and welcome the development of rapid point-of-care tests providing accurate measurements of clinically validated biomarkers. At present, well-studied molecules associated with host response factors and with derived tissue destruction mediators have been proposed as diagnostic biomarkers for periodontitis detected in the oral fluids

Data collection and analysis tools for food security and nutrition. Towards enhancing effective, inclusive, evidence-informed, decision making

Throughout the world, high-quality, timely and relevant data are key to inform actions that promote better access to food and improved nutrition. • Despite the abundant and growing availability of data and information relevant to food security and nutrition, often policymakers are not aware of the existence and relevance of such data or do not use them appropriately, due to challenges at each step of the data cycle, which includes: defining priorities and data needs; reviewing, consolidating, collecting and curating data; analyzing the data using appropriate tools; translating data into relevant insights to be disseminated and discussed; and, finally, using data for decision-making. • Fundamental data gaps still exist to correctly guide action and inform policymaking, especially in terms of timely and sufficiently granular data on people’s ability to locally produce and access food, on their actual food and nutrient consumption, and on their nutritional status. Increased and sustained financial investment is needed to overcome these gaps. • Several other constraints limit the effectiveness of data-informed policy action, especially in low-resource countries. Key among them is the low level of data literacy and analysis skills (for both qualitative and quantitative data) on the part of data and information users at all levels – from data collectors and analysts, to decision-makers, and to the people, as the ultimate beneficiaries of food security and nutrition policies. • The complexity of the system of public and private actors and institutions involved in food security and nutrition data, coupled with the rapidly changing characteristics of today’s data ecosystems due to the digital revolution and the pervasiveness of the internet, brings to centre stage the need for global coordination to improve data governance. Particularly urgent is the need to reach agreement on the nature of FSN data and information as a public good, and, on that basis, to establish a global legal framework that allows for the broadest possible circulation of relevant information, while preserving the rights of the people to whom the data ultimately belongs