Evaluating Forecasting Methods

Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted methodological procedures, such as to prespecify criteria or to obtain a large sample of forecast errors. However, forecasters often violate such principles, even in academic studies. Some principles might be surprising, such as do not use R-square, do not use Mean Square Error, and do not use the within-sample fit of the model to select the most accurate time-series model. A checklist of 32 principles is provided to help in systematically evaluating forecasting methods

The Efficacy of Emamectin Benzoate against Infestations of Lepeophtheirus salmonis on Farmed Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L) in Scotland, 2002–2006

Infestations of the parasitic copepod Lepeophtheirus salmonis, commonly referred to as sea lice, represent a major challenge to commercial salmon aquaculture. Dependence on a limited number of theraputants to control such infestations has led to concerns of reduced sensitivity in some sea lice populations. This study investigates trends in the efficacy of the in-feed treatment emamectin benzoate in Scotland, the active ingredient most widely used across all salmon producing regions. Study data were drawn from over 50 commercial Atlantic salmon farms on the west coast of Scotland between 2002 and 2006. An epi-informatics approach was adopted whereby available farm records, descriptive epidemiological summaries and statistical linear modelling methods were used to identify factors that significantly affect sea lice abundance following treatment with emamectin benzoate (SLICEH, Schering Plough Animal Health). The results show that although sea lice infestations are reduced following the application of emamectin benzoate, not all treatments are effective. Specifically there is evidence of variation across geographical regions and a reduction in efficacy over time. Reduced sensitivity and potential resistance to currently available medicines are constant threats to maintaining control of sea lice populations on Atlantic salmon farms. There is a need for on-going monitoring of emamectin benzoate treatment efficacy together with reasons for any apparent reduction in performance. In addition, strategic rotation of medicines should be encouraged and empirical evidence for the benefit of such strategies more fully evaluated

Parity-Violating Electron Scattering from 4He and the Strange Electric Form Factor of the Nucleon

We have measured the parity-violating electroweak asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from ^4He at an average scattering angle = 5.7 degrees and a four-momentum transfer Q^2 = 0.091 GeV^2. From these data, for the first time, the strange electric form factor of the nucleon G^s_E can be isolated. The measured asymmetry of A_PV = (6.72 +/- 0.84 (stat) +/- 0.21 (syst) parts per million yields a value of G^s_E = -0.038 +/- 0.042 (stat) +/- 0.010 (syst), consistent with zero

Spike patterning in oxytocin neurons:Capturing physiological behaviour with Hodgkin-Huxley and integrate-and-fire models

Integrate-and-fire (IF) models can provide close matches to the discharge activity of neurons, but do they oversimplify the biophysical properties of the neurons? A single compartment Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) model of the oxytocin neuron has previously been developed, incorporating biophysical measurements of channel properties obtained in vitro. A simpler modified integrate-and-fire model has also been developed, which can match well the characteristic spike patterning of oxytocin neurons as observed in vivo. Here, we extended the HH model to incorporate synaptic input, to enable us to compare spike activity in the model with experimental data obtained in vivo. We refined the HH model parameters to closely match the data, and then matched the same experimental data with a modified IF model, using an evolutionary algorithm to optimise parameter matching. Finally we compared the properties of the modified HH model with those of the IF model to seek an explanation for differences between spike patterning in vitro and in vivo. We show that, with slight modifications, the original HH model, like the IF model, is able to closely match both the interspike interval (ISI) distributions of oxytocin neurons and the observed variability of spike firing rates in vivo and in vitro. This close match of both models to data depends on the presence of a slow activity-dependent hyperpolarisation (AHP); this is represented in both models and the parameters used in the HH model representation match well with optimal parameters of the IF model found by an evolutionary algorithm. The ability of both models to fit data closely also depends on a shorter hyperpolarising after potential (HAP); this is explicitly represented in the IF model, but in the HH model, it emerges from a combination of several components. The critical elements of this combination are identified

Simulations of events for the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter search aims to achieve a sensitivity to the WIMP-nucleon spin-independent cross-section down to (1–2)×10−12 pb at a WIMP mass of 40 GeV/c2. This paper describes the simulations framework that, along with radioactivity measurements, was used to support this projection, and also to provide mock data for validating reconstruction and analysis software. Of particular note are the event generators, which allow us to model the background radiation, and the detector response physics used in the production of raw signals, which can be converted into digitized waveforms similar to data from the operational detector. Inclusion of the detector response allows us to process simulated data using the same analysis routines as developed to process the experimental data

Projected sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment to the 0νββ decay of Xe 136

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will enable a neutrinoless double β decay search in parallel to the main science goal of discovering dark matter particle interactions. We report the expected LZ sensitivity to Xe136 neutrinoless double β decay, taking advantage of the significant (>600 kg) Xe136 mass contained within the active volume of LZ without isotopic enrichment. After 1000 live-days, the median exclusion sensitivity to the half-life of Xe136 is projected to be 1.06×1026 years (90% confidence level), similar to existing constraints. We also report the expected sensitivity of a possible subsequent dedicated exposure using 90% enrichment with Xe136 at 1.06×1027 years

New Measurement of Parity Violation in Elastic Electron-Proton Scattering and Implications for Strange Form Factors

We have measured the parity-violating electroweak asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from the proton. The result is A = -15.05 +- 0.98(stat) +- 0.56(syst) ppm at the kinematic point theta_lab = 12.3 degrees and Q^2 = 0.477 (GeV/c)^2. The measurement implies that the value for the strange form factor (G_E^s + 0.392 G_M^s) = 0.025 +- 0.020 +- 0.014, where the first error is experimental and the second arises from the uncertainties in electromagnetic form factors. This measurement is the first fixed-target parity violation experiment that used either a `strained' GaAs photocathode to produce highly polarized electrons or a Compton polarimeter to continuously monitor the electron beam polarization.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, Tex, elsart.cls; revised version as accepted for Phys. Lett.

Thyroid disease is a favorable prognostic factor in achieving sustained virologic response in chronic hepatitis C undergoing combination therapy: A nested case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interferon-α in combination with ribavirin is the current gold standard for treatment of chronic hepatitis C. It is unknown if the development of autoimmune thyroid disease (TD) during treatment confers an improved chance of achieving sustained virologic response. The aim of this study is to assess the chance of achieving sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients who developed TD during treatment when compared with those who did not.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a tertiary hospital-based retrospective nested case-control analysis of 19 patients treated for hepatitis C who developed thyroid disease, and 76 controls (matched for age, weight, gender, cirrhosis and aminotransferase levels) who did not develop TD during treatment. Multivariate logistic-regression models were used to compare cases and controls.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The development of TD was associated with a high likelihood of achieving SVR (odds ratio, 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 24.6) for the pooled group containing all genotypes. The likelihood of achieving SVR was increased in individuals with genotype 1 HCV infection who developed TD (odds ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 22.3), and all genotype 3 patients who developed TD achieved SVR.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Development of TD during treatment for hepatitis C infection is associated with a significantly increased chance of achieving SVR. The pathophysiogical mechanisms for this observation remain to be determined.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><it>The Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR)</it>: <a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRB12610000830099.aspx">ACTRB12610000830099</a></p