Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Monkey Steering Responses Reveal Rapid Visual-Motor Feedback

The neural mechanisms underlying primate locomotion are largely unknown. While behavioral and theoretical work has provided a number of ideas of how navigation is controlled, progress will require direct physiolgical tests of the underlying mechanisms. In turn, this will require development of appropriate animal models. We trained three monkeys to track a moving visual target in a simple virtual environment, using a joystick to control their direction. The monkeys learned to quickly and accurately turn to the target, and their steering behavior was quite stereotyped and reliable. Monkeys typically responded to abrupt steps of target direction with a biphasic steering movement, exhibiting modest but transient overshoot. Response latencies averaged approximately 300 ms, and monkeys were typically back on target after about 1 s. We also exploited the variability of responses about the mean to explore the time-course of correlation between target direction and steering response. This analysis revealed a broad peak of correlation spanning approximately 400 ms in the recent past, during which steering errors provoke a compensatory response. This suggests a continuous, visual-motor loop controls steering behavior, even during the epoch surrounding transient inputs. Many results from the human literature also suggest that steering is controlled by such a closed loop. The similarity of our results to those in humans suggests the monkey is a very good animal model for human visually guided steering

Tools and techniques for solvent selection: green solvent selection guides

Driven by legislation and evolving attitudes towards environmental issues, establishing green solvents for extractions, separations, formulations and reaction chemistry has become an increasingly important area of research. Several general purpose solvent selection guides have now been published with the aim to reduce use of the most hazardous solvents. This review serves the purpose of explaining the role of these guides, highlighting their similarities and differences. How they can be used most effectively to enhance the greenness of chemical processes, particularly in laboratory organic synthesis and the pharmaceutical industry, is addressed in detail

Elevated circulating levels of succinate in human obesity are linked to specific gut microbiota

Gut microbiota-related metabolites are potential clinical biomarkers for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Circulating succinate, a metabolite produced by both microbiota and the host, is increased in hypertension, ischemic heart disease, and type 2 diabetes. We aimed to analyze systemic levels of succinate in obesity, a major risk factor for CVD, and its relationship with gut microbiome. We explored the association of circulating succinate with specific metagenomic signatures in cross-sectional and prospective cohorts of Caucasian Spanish subjects. Obesity was associated with elevated levels of circulating succinate concomitant with impaired glucose metabolism. This increase was associated with specific changes in gut microbiota related to succinate metabolism: a higher relative abundance of succinate-producing Prevotellaceae (P) and Veillonellaceae (V), and a lower relative abundance of succinate-consuming Odoribacteraceae (O) and Clostridaceae (C) in obese individuals, with the (P + V/O + C) ratio being a main determinant of plasma succinate. Weight loss intervention decreased (P + V/O + C) ratio coincident with the reduction in circulating succinate. In the spontaneous evolution after good dietary advice, alterations in circulating succinate levels were linked to specific metagenomic signatures associated with carbohydrate metabolism and energy production with independence of body weight change. Our data support the importance of microbe-microbe interactions for the metabolite signature of gut microbiome and uncover succinate as a potential microbiota-derived metabolite related to CVD risk