Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioral Microsimulations

Analyzing the poverty and distributional impact of macro events requires understanding how shocks or policy changes on the macro level affect household income and consumption. It is clear that this poses a formidable task, which of course raises the question of the appropriate methodology to address such questions. This paper presents one possible approach: A sequential methodology that combines a macroeconomic model with a behavioral micro-simulation. We discuss the merits and shortcomings of this approach with a focus on developing country applications with a short to medium run time horizon. - This chapter is a re-print of: Lay, J. (2010). Sequential macro-micro modelling with behavioural microsimulations. International Journal of Microsimulation, 3(1), 24-34

Whole life performance assessment: critical success factors

Whole life costing (WLC) has become the best practice in construction procurement and it is likely to be a major issue in predicting whole life costs of a construction project accurately. However, different expectations from different organizations throughout a project's life and the lack of data, monitoring targets, and long-term interest for many key players are obstacles to be overcome if WLC is to be implemented. A questionnaire survey was undertaken to investigate a set of ten common factors and 188 individual factors. These were grouped into eight critical categories (project scope, time, cost, quality, contract/administration, human resource, risk, and health and safety) by project phase, as perceived by the clients, contractors and subcontractors in order to identify critical success factors for whole life performance assessment (WLPA). Using a relative importance index, the top ten critical factors for each category, from the perspective of project participants, were analyzed and ranked. Their agreement on those categories and factors were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation. All participants identify “Type of Project” as the most common critical factor in the eight categories for WLPA. Using the relative index ranking technique and weighted average methods, it was found that the most critical individual factors in each category were: “clarity of contract” (scope); “fixed construction period” (time); “precise project budget estimate” (cost); “material quality” (quality); “mutual/trusting relationships” (contract/administration); “leadership/team management” (human resource); and “management of work safety on site” (health and safety). There was relatively a high agreement on these categories among all participants. Obviously, with 80 critical factors of WLPA, there is a stronger positive relationship between client and contactor rather than contractor and subcontractor, client and subcontractor. Putting these critical factors into a criteria matrix can facilitate an initial framework of WLPA in order to aid decision making in the public sector in South Korea for evaluation/selection process of a construction project at the bid stage

A ‘quiet revolution’? The impact of Training Schools on initial teacher training partnerships

This paper discusses the impact on initial teacher training of a new policy initiative in England: the introduction of Training Schools. First, the Training School project is set in context by exploring the evolution of a partnership approach to initial teacher training in England. Ways in which Training Schools represent a break with established practice are considered together with their implications for the dominant mode of partnership led by higher education institutions (HEIs). The capacity of Training Schools to achieve their own policy objectives is examined, especially their efficacy as a strategy for managing innovation and the dissemination of innovation. The paper ends by focusing on a particular Training School project which has adopted an unusual approach to its work and enquires whether this alternative approach could offer a more profitable way forward. During the course of the paper, five different models of partnership are considered: collaborative, complementary, HEI-led, school-led and partnership within a partnership

Development and evaluation of an optimal composite estimator in spatial microsimulation small area estimation

A range of data is of geographic interest but is not available at a small area level from existing data sources. Small area estimation (SAE) offers techniques to estimate population parameters of target variables to detailed scales based on relationships between those target variables and relevant auxiliary variables. The resulting indirect small area estimate can deliver a lower mean squared error compared to its direct survey estimate, given that variance can be reduced markedly even if bias increases. Spatial microsimulation SAE approaches are widely utilized but only beginning to engage with the potential of composite estimators that use a weighted combination of indirect and direct estimators to reduce further the mean squared error of the small area estimate compared to an indirect SAE estimator alone. This article advances these approaches by constructing for the first time in the microsimulation literature an optimal composite estimator for such SAE approaches in which the combining weight is calculated from the mean squared errors of the two estimators; thus, optimizing the reduction in MSE of the resulting small area estimates. This optimal composite estimator is demonstrated and evaluated in a model‐based simulation study and application based on the real data

Hypnosis Antenatal Training for Childbirth (HATCh): a randomised controlled trial [NCT00282204]

BACKGROUND: Although medical interventions play an important role in preserving lives and maternal comfort they have become increasingly routine in normal childbirth. This may increase the risk of associated complications and a less satisfactory birth experience. Antenatal hypnosis is associated with a reduced need for pharmacological interventions during childbirth. This trial seeks to determine the efficacy or otherwise of antenatal group hypnosis preparation for childbirth in late pregnancy. METHODS/DESIGN: A single centre, randomised controlled trial using a 3 arm parallel group design in the largest tertiary maternity unit in South Australia. Group 1 participants receive antenatal hypnosis training in preparation for childbirth administered by a qualified hypnotherapist with the use of an audio compact disc on hypnosis for re-enforcement; Group 2 consists of antenatal hypnosis training in preparation for childbirth using an audio compact disc on hypnosis administered by a nurse with no training in hypnotherapy; Group 3 participants continue with their usual preparation for childbirth with no additional intervention. Women > 34 and < 39 weeks gestation, planning a vaginal birth, not in active labour, with a singleton, viable fetus of vertex presentation, are eligible to participate. Allocation concealment is achieved using telephone randomisation. Participants assigned to hypnosis groups commence hypnosis training as near as possible to 37 weeks gestation. Treatment allocations are concealed from treating obstetricians, anaesthetists, midwives and those personnel collecting and analysing data. Our sample size of 135 women/group gives the study 80% power to detect a clinically relevant fall of 20% in the number of women requiring pharmacological analgesia – the primary endpoint. We estimate that approximately 5–10% of women will deliver prior to receiving their allocated intervention. We plan to recruit 150 women/group and perform sequential interim analyses when 150 and 300 participants have been recruited. All participant data will be analysed, by a researcher blinded to treatment allocation, according to the "Intention to treat" principle with comprehensive pre-planned cost- benefit and subgroup analyses. DISCUSSION: If effective, hypnosis would be a simple, inexpensive way to improve the childbirth experience, reduce complications associated with pharmacological interventions, yield cost savings in maternity care, and this trial will provide evidence to guide clinical practice