Randomized clinical trials to identify optimal antibiotic treatment duration

Background Antibiotic resistance is a major barrier to the continued success of antibiotic treatment. Such resistance is often generated by overly long durations of antibiotic treatment. A barrier to identifying the shortest effective treatment duration is the cost of the sequence of clinical trials needed to determine shortest optimal duration. We propose a new method to identify the optimal treatment duration of an antibiotic treatment regimen. Methods Subjects are randomized to varying treatment durations and the cure proportions of these durations are linked using a logistic regression model, making effective use of information across all treatment duration groups. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate performance of such a model. Results Using a hypothetical dataset, the logistic regression model is seen to provide increased precision in defining the point estimate and confidence interval (CI) of the cure proportion at each treatment duration. When applied to the determination of non-inferiority, the regression model allows identification of the shortest duration meeting the predefined non-inferiority margin. Conclusions This analytic strategy represents a practical way to develop shortened regimens for tuberculosis and other infectious diseases. Application of this strategy to clinical trials of antibiotic therapy could facilitate decreased antibiotic usage, reduce cost, minimize toxicity, and decrease the emergence of antibiotic resistance

Evaluation of exposure-specific risks from two independent samples: A simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies have proposed a simple product-based estimator for calculating exposure-specific risks (ESR), but the methodology has not been rigorously evaluated. The goal of our study was to evaluate the existing methodology for calculating the ESR, propose an improved point estimator, and propose variance estimates that will allow the calculation of confidence intervals (CIs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a simulation study to test the performance of two estimators and their associated confidence intervals: 1) current (simple product-based estimator) and 2) proposed revision (revised product-based estimator). The first method for ESR estimation was based on multiplying a relative risk (RR) of disease given a certain exposure by an overall risk of disease. The second method, which is proposed in this paper, was based on estimates of the risk of disease in the unexposed. We then multiply the updated risk by the RR to get the revised product-based estimator. A log-based variance was calculated for both estimators. Also, a binomial-based variance was calculated for the revised product-based estimator. 95% CIs were calculated based on these variance estimates. Accuracy of point estimators was evaluated by comparing observed relative bias (percent deviation from the true estimate). Interval estimators were evaluated by coverage probabilities and expected length of the 95% CI, given coverage. We evaluated these estimators across a wide range of exposure probabilities, disease probabilities, relative risks, and sample sizes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed more bias and lower coverage probability when using the existing methodology. The revised product-based point estimator exhibited little observed relative bias (max: 4.0%) compared to the simple product-based estimator (max: 93.9%). Because the simple product-based estimator was biased, 95% CIs around this estimate exhibited small coverage probabilities. The 95% CI around the revised product-based estimator from the log-based variance provided better coverage in most situations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The currently accepted simple product-based method was only a reasonable approach when the exposure probability is small (< 0.05) and the RR is ≤ 3.0. The revised product-based estimator provides much improved accuracy.</p

Cost-effectiveness of a novel lipoarabinomannan test for tuberculosis in patients with HIV

BACKGROUND: A novel urine lipoarabinomannan assay (FujiLAM) has higher sensitivity and higher cost than the first-generation AlereLAM assay. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of FujiLAM for tuberculosis testing among hospitalized people with HIV irrespective of symptoms. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to project clinical and economic outcomes of three testing strategies: 1) sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert); 2) sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM); 3) sputum Xpert plus urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). The modelled cohort matched that of a two-country clinical trial. We applied diagnostic yields from a retrospective study (yields for Xpert/Xpert+AlereLAM/Xpert+FujiLAM among those with CD4<200/µL: 33%/62%/70%; among those with CD4≥200/µL: 33%/35%/47%). Costs of Xpert/AlereLAM/FujiLAM were USD15/3/6 (South Africa) and USD25/3/6 (Malawi). Xpert+FujiLAM was considered cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (USD/year-of-life saved) was <$940 (South Africa) and <$750 (Malawi). We varied key parameters in sensitivity analysis and performed a budget impact analysis of implementing FujiLAM countrywide. RESULTS: Compared with Xpert+AlereLAM, Xpert+FujiLAM increased life expectancy by 0.2 years for those tested in South Africa and Malawi. Xpert+FujiLAM was cost-effective in both countries. Xpert+FujiLAM for all patients remained cost-effective compared with sequential testing and CD4-stratified testing strategies. FujiLAM use added 3.5% (South Africa) and 4.7% (Malawi) to five-year healthcare costs of tested patients, primarily reflecting ongoing HIV treatment costs among survivors. CONCLUSIONS: FujiLAM with Xpert for tuberculosis testing in hospitalized people with HIV is likely to increase life expectancy and be cost-effective at the currently anticipated price in South Africa and Malawi. Additional studies should evaluate FujiLAM in clinical practice settings

Potential Economic Viability of Two Proposed Rifapentine-Based Regimens for Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Rationale: Rifapentine-based regimens for treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are being considered for future clinical trials, but even if they prove effective, high drug costs may limit their economic viability. Objectives: To inform clinical trial design by estimating the potential costs and effectiveness of rifapentine-based regimens for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Methods: We used a Markov model to estimate cost and societal benefits for three regimens for treating LTBI: Isoniazid/ rifapentine daily for one month, isoniazid/rifapentine weekly for three months (self-administered and directly-observed), and isoniazid daily for nine months; a strategy of ‘‘no treatment’ ’ used for comparison. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and instances of active tuberculosis averted were calculated for all arms. Results: Both daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months were less expensive and more effective than other strategies under a wide variety of clinically plausibly parameter estimates. Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month was the least expensive and most effective regimen. Conclusions: Daily isoniazid/rifapentine for one month and weekly isoniazid/rifapentine for three months should be studied in a large-scale clinical trial for efficacy. Because both regimens performed well even if their efficacy is somewhat reduced

The catch 22 of condoms in US correctional facilities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV infection in US correctional settings, most jails and prisons in the United States prevent inmates from using condoms to prevent STIs/HIV.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This article makes the following arguments to justify a scalable and feasible next step in the prevention of HIV/STIs among inmates: condoms are a basic and essential part of HIV/STI prevention, HIV/STI transmission occurs in the context of corrections, and several model programs show the feasibility of condom distribution in prisons. A lower end estimate for HIV incidence among incarcerated applied to 2,000,000 new inmates annually results in thousands of new HIV infections acquired each year in corrections that could be prevented with condoms in corrections facilities. Programs from parts of the United States, Canada, and much of Europe show how programs distributing condoms in correctional facilities can be safe and effective.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Public health and corrections officials must work together to ensure that condoms and broader sexual disease prevention programs are integrated into US jail and prison health systems.</p

Programmatic Impact of QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube Implementation on Latent Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment in a Public Health Clinic

Background: QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) is considered an alternative to the tuberculin skin test (TST) for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) infection, but the programmatic impact of QFT-GIT implementation is largely unknown. In March, 2010, the Baltimore City Health Department (BCHD) introduced routine QFT-GIT testing for individuals referred to the TB program for suspected latent TB infection (LTBI). Design: Retrospective study comparing LTBI diagnosis and treatment during the 13 months before and after QFT-GIT implementation at the BCHD TB clinic. Results: 607 and 750 individuals were referred by community-providers for suspected LTBI in the pre- and post-QFT-GIT periods, respectively. Most individuals in the pre- and post-QFT-GIT periods were referred on the basis of a positive TST (597/607 [98%] vs. 690/750 [92%], respectively) and were foreign-born (363/607[59%] vs. 507/750[68%], respectively). BCHD performed QFT-GIT testing for 375/543 (69%) eligible individuals in the post-QFT-GIT period, of which 185 (49%) were positive, 178 (47%) were negative, 1 (0.25%) was indeterminate, and 11 (3%) did not yield results. Concordance of QFT-GIT with TST was low (183/352[52%]). Foreign-born individuals had higher proportions of QFT-GIT positivity (57%) than US-born individuals (36%; AOR 3.3 [95%CI 1.7–6.2]). Significantly fewer individuals received a final diagnosis of LTBI in the post-QFT-GIT period (397/567 [70%]) compared to the pre-QFT-GIT period (445/452 [98%], p,0.001). In the post-QFT-GIT period, onl

The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

BACKGROUND: The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI) as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI) for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011) and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y), and recently infected with isoniazid (INH)-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%-26.4%), amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%-0.9%) of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2-63.8) million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%-11.8%) was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and methodological heterogeneity of direct ARI data, and limited evidence to inform on potential clearance of LTBI. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that approximately 1.7 billion individuals were latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) globally in 2014, just under a quarter of the global population. Investment in new tools to improve diagnosis and treatment of those with LTBI at risk of progressing to disease is urgently needed to address this latent reservoir if the 2050 target of eliminating TB is to be reached

Spectrum of clinical disease in a series of 135 hospitalised HIV-infected patients from north India

BACKGROUND: Literature on the spectrum of opportunistic disease in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients from developing countries is sparse. The objective of this study was to document the spectrum and determine the frequency of various opportunistic infections (OIs) and non-infectious opportunistic diseases, in hospitalised HIV-infected patients from north India. METHODS: One hundred and thirty five consecutive, HIV-infected patients (age 34 ± 10 years, females 17%) admitted to a tertiary care hospital in north India, for the evaluation and management of an OI or HIV-related disorder between January 2000 and July 2003, were studied. RESULTS: Fever (71%) and weight loss (65%) were the commonest presenting symptoms. Heterosexual transmission was the commonest mode of HIV-acquisition. Tuberculosis (TB) was the commonest OI (71%) followed by candidiasis (39.3%), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (PCP) (7.4%), cryptococcal meningitis and cerebral toxoplasmosis (3.7% each). Most of the cases of TB were disseminated (64%). Apart from other well-recognised OIs, two patients had visceral leishmaniasis. Two cases of HIV-associated lymphoma were encountered. CD4+ cell counts were done in 109 patients. Majority of the patients (82.6%) had CD4+ counts <200 cells/μL. Fifty patients (46%) had CD4+ counts <50 cells/μL. Only 50 patients (37%) received antiretroviral therapy. Twenty one patients (16%) died during hospital stay. All but one deaths were due to TB (16 patients; 76%) and PCP (4 patients; 19%). CONCLUSIONS: A wide spectrum of disease, including both OIs and non-infectious opportunistic diseases, is seen in hospitalised HIV-infected patients from north India. Tuberculosis remains the most common OI and is the commonest cause of death in these patients

Traumatic brain injury as a risk factor for Alzheimer disease. Comparison of two retrospective autopsy cohorts with evaluation of ApoE genotype

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The impact of traumatic brain injury (TBI) on the pathogenesis of Alzheimer disease (AD) is still controversial. The aim of our retrospective autopsy study was to assess the impact of TBE and ApoE allele frequency on the development of AD. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We examined 1. the incidence of AD pathology (Braak stageing, CERAD, NIA-Reagan Institute criteria) in 58 consecutive patients (mean age ± SD 77.0 ± 6.8 years) with residual closed TBI lesions, and 2. the frequency of TBI residuals in 57 age-matched autopsy proven AD cases. In both series, ApoE was evaluated from archival paraffin-embedded brain material. RESULTS: 1. TBE series: 12.1 % showed definite and 10.3% probable AD (mean age 77.6 and 75.2 years), only 2/13 with ApoEε3/4. From 45 (77.6%) non-AD cases (mean age 78.2 years), 3 had ApoEε3/4. The prevalence of 22.4% AD in this small autopsy cohort was significantly higher than 3.3% in a recent large clinical series and 14% in the general population over age 70. 2. In the AD cohort with ApoEε4 allele frequency of 30% similar to other AD series, residuals of closed TBI were seen in 4 brains (7%) (mean age ± SD 78.2 ± 6.4), all lacking the ApoEε4 allele. TBI incidence was slightly lower than 8.5% in the clinical MIRAGE study. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this first retrospective autopsy study of TBI, ApoEε allele frequency, and AD confirm clinical studies suggesting severe TBI to be a risk factor for the development AD higher in subjects lacking ApoEε4 alleles. Further studies in larger autopsy series are needed to elucidate the relationship between TBI, genetic predisposition, and AD