An integrated optimisation platform for sustainable resource and infrastructure planning

It is crucial for sustainable planning to consider broad environmental and social dimensions and systemic implications of new infrastructure to build more resilient societies, reduce poverty, improve human well-being, mitigate climate change and address other global change processes. This article presents resilience.io, 2 a platform to evaluate new infrastructure projects by assessing their design and effectiveness in meeting growing resource demands, simulated using Agent-Based Modelling due to socio-economic population changes. We then use Mixed-Integer Linear Programming to optimise a multi-objective function to find cost-optimal solutions, inclusive of environmental metrics such as greenhouse gas emissions. The solutions in space and time provide planning guidance for conventional and novel technology selection, changes in network topology, system costs, and can incorporate any material, waste, energy, labour or emissions flow. As an application, a use case is provided for the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) sector for a four million people city-region in Ghana

Using electronic health records to predict costs and outcomes in stable coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES: To use electronic health records (EHR) to predict lifetime costs and health outcomes of patients with stable coronary artery disease (stable-CAD) stratified by their risk of future cardiovascular events, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments targeted at these populations. METHODS: The analysis was based on 94 966 patients with stable-CAD in England between 2001 and 2010, identified in four prospectively collected, linked EHR sources. Markov modelling was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) stratified by baseline cardiovascular risk. RESULTS: For the lowest risk tenth of patients with stable-CAD, predicted discounted remaining lifetime healthcare costs and QALYs were £62 210 (95% CI £33 724 to £90 043) and 12.0 (95% CI 11.5 to 12.5) years, respectively. For the highest risk tenth of the population, the equivalent costs and QALYs were £35 549 (95% CI £31 679 to £39 615) and 2.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 3.1) years, respectively. A new treatment with a hazard reduction of 20% for myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular disease death and no side-effects would be cost-effective if priced below £72 per year for the lowest risk patients and £646 per year for the highest risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Existing EHRs may be used to estimate lifetime healthcare costs and outcomes of patients with stable-CAD. The stable-CAD model developed in this study lends itself to informing decisions about commissioning, pricing and reimbursement. At current prices, to be cost-effective some established as well as future stable-CAD treatments may require stratification by patient risk

Long-term healthcare use and costs in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a population-based cohort using linked health records (CALIBER)

AIMS: To examine long-term healthcare utilization and costs of patients with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Linked cohort study of 94 966 patients with SCAD in England, 1 January 2001 to 31 March 2010, identified from primary care, secondary care, disease, and death registries. Resource use and costs, and cost predictors by time and 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile were estimated using generalized linear models. Coronary heart disease hospitalizations were 20.5% in the first year and 66% in the year following a non-fatal (myocardial infarction, ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke) event. Mean healthcare costs were £3133 per patient in the first year and £10 377 in the year following a non-fatal event. First-year predictors of cost included sex (mean cost £549 lower in females), SCAD diagnosis (non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction cost £656 more than stable angina), and co-morbidities (heart failure cost £657 more per patient). Compared with lower risk patients (5-year CVD risk 3.5%), those of higher risk (5-year CVD risk 44.2%) had higher 5-year costs (£23 393 vs. £9335) and lower lifetime costs (£43 020 vs. £116 888). CONCLUSION: Patients with SCAD incur substantial healthcare utilization and costs, which varies and may be predicted by 5-year CVD risk profile. Higher risk patients have higher initial but lower lifetime costs than lower risk patients as a result of shorter life expectancy. Improved cardiovascular survivorship among an ageing CVD population is likely to require stratified care in anticipation of the burgeoning demand

Numerical validation of scaling laws for stratified turbulence

This is the final version. Available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this record. Recent theoretical progress using multiscale asymptotic analysis has revealed various possible regimes of stratified turbulence. Notably, buoyancy transport can either be dominated by advection or diffusion, depending on the effective Péclet number of the flow. Two types of asymptotic models have been proposed, which yield measurably different predictions for the characteristic vertical velocity and length scale of the turbulent eddies in both diffusive and non-diffusive regimes. The first, termed a ‘single-scale model’, is designed to describe flow structures having large horizontal and small vertical scales, while the second, termed a ‘multiscale model’, additionally incorporates flow features with small horizontal scales, and reduces to the single-scale model in their absence. By comparing predicted vertical velocity scaling laws with direct numerical simulation data, we show that the multiscale model correctly captures the properties of strongly stratified turbulence within regions dominated by small-scale isotropic motions, whose volume fraction decreases as the stratification increases. Meanwhile its single-scale reduction accurately describes the more orderly, layer-like, quiescent flow outside those regions.U.S. Department of EnergyJ.S. McDonnell Foundatio

Ethanol reversal of tolerance to the respiratory depressant effects of morphine

Opioids are the most common drugs associated with unintentional drug overdose. Death results from respiratory depression. Prolonged use of opioids results in the development of tolerance but the degree of tolerance is thought to vary between different effects of the drugs. Many opioid addicts regularly consume alcohol (ethanol), and post-mortem analyses of opioid overdose deaths have revealed an inverse correlation between blood morphine and ethanol levels. In the present study, we determined whether ethanol reduced tolerance to the respiratory depressant effects of opioids. Mice were treated with opioids (morphine, methadone, or buprenorphine) for up to 6 days. Respiration was measured in freely moving animals breathing 5% CO(2) in air in plethysmograph chambers. Antinociception (analgesia) was measured as the latency to remove the tail from a thermal stimulus. Opioid tolerance was assessed by measuring the response to a challenge dose of morphine (10 mg/kg i.p.). Tolerance developed to the respiratory depressant effect of morphine but at a slower rate than tolerance to its antinociceptive effect. A low dose of ethanol (0.3 mg/kg) alone did not depress respiration but in prolonged morphine-treated animals respiratory depression was observed when ethanol was co-administered with the morphine challenge. Ethanol did not alter the brain levels of morphine. In contrast, in methadone- or buprenorphine-treated animals no respiratory depression was observed when ethanol was co-administered along with the morphine challenge. As heroin is converted to morphine in man, selective reversal of morphine tolerance by ethanol may be a contributory factor in heroin overdose deaths

Hidden Orbital Order in URu2Si2URu_{2}Si_{2}

When matter is cooled from high temperatures, collective instabilities develop amongst its constituent particles that lead to new kinds of order. An anomaly in the specific heat is a classic signature of this phenomenon. Usually the associated order is easily identified, but sometimes its nature remains elusive. The heavy fermion metal $URu_2Si_2$ is one such example, where the order responsible for the sharp specific heat anomaly at $T_0=17 K$ has remained unidentified despite more than seventeen years of effort. In $URu_{2}Si_{2}$, the coexistence of large electron-electron repulsion and antiferromagnetic fluctuations in $URu_2Si_2$ leads to an almost incompressible heavy electron fluid, where anisotropically paired quasiparticle states are energetically favored. In this paper we use these insights to develop a detailed proposal for the hidden order in $URu_2Si_2$. We show that incommensurate orbital antiferromagnetism, associated with circulating currents between the uranium ions, can account for the local fields and entropy loss observed at the $17 K$ transition; furthermore we make detailed predictions for neutron scattering measurements

Connective tissue disease related interstitial lung diseases and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: provisional core sets of domains and instruments for use in clinical trials

Rationale Clinical trial design in interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) has been hampered by lack of consensus on appropriate outcome measures for reliably assessing treatment response. In the setting of connective tissue diseases (CTDs), some measures of ILD disease activity and severity may be confounded by non-pulmonary comorbidities. Methods The Connective Tissue Disease associated Interstitial Lung Disease (CTD-ILD) working group of Outcome Measures in Rheumatology—a non-profit international organisation dedicated to consensus methodology in identification of outcome measures—conducted a series of investigations which included a Delphi process including >248 ILD medical experts as well as patient focus groups culminating in a nominal group panel of ILD experts and patients. The goal was to define and develop a consensus on the status of outcome measure candidates for use in randomised controlled trials in CTD-ILD and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Results A core set comprising specific measures in the domains of lung physiology, lung imaging, survival, dyspnoea, cough and health-related quality of life is proposed as appropriate for consideration for use in a hypothetical 1-year multicentre clinical trial for either CTD-ILD or IPF. As many widely used instruments were found to lack full validation, an agenda for future research is proposed. Conclusion Identification of consensus preliminary domains and instruments to measure them was attained and is a major advance anticipated to facilitate multicentre RCTs in the field

Ambulatory heart rate range predicts mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation in chronic heart failure

Objective: We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Results: After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R2=0.2; p<0.001) and with peak exercise-test heart rate (R2=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort. Conclusions: AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity

Protective effect of stromal Dickkopf-3 in prostate cancer: opposing roles for TGFBI and ECM-1

Aberrant transforming growth factor–β (TGF-β) signaling is a hallmark of the stromal microenvironment in cancer. Dickkopf-3 (Dkk-3), shown to inhibit TGF-β signaling, is downregulated in prostate cancer and upregulated in the stroma in benign prostatic hyperplasia, but the function of stromal Dkk-3 is unclear. Here we show that DKK3 silencing in WPMY-1 prostate stromal cells increases TGF-β signaling activity and that stromal cellconditioned media inhibit prostate cancer cell invasion in a Dkk-3-dependent manner. DKK3 silencing increased the level of the cell-adhesion regulator TGF-β–induced protein (TGFBI) in stromal and epithelial cell-conditioned media, and recombinant TGFBI increased prostate cancer cell invasion. Reduced expression of Dkk-3 in patient tumors was associated with increased expression of TGFBI. DKK3 silencing reduced the level of extracellular matrix protein-1 (ECM-1) in prostate stromal cell-conditioned media but increased it in epithelial cell-conditioned media, and recombinant ECM-1 inhibited TGFBI-induced prostate cancer cell invasion. Increased ECM1 and DKK3 mRNA expression in prostate tumors was associated with increased relapse-free survival. These observations are consistent with a model in which the loss of Dkk-3 in prostate cancer leads to increased secretion of TGFBI and ECM-1, which have tumor-promoting and tumor-protective roles, respectively. Determining how the balance between the opposing roles of extracellular factors influences prostate carcinogenesis will be key to developing therapies that target the tumor microenvironment