Distribution of skates and sharks in the North Sea: 112 years of change

How have North Sea skate and shark assemblages changed since the early 20th century when bottom trawling became widespread, whilst their environment became increasingly impacted by fishing, climate change, habitat degradation and other anthropogenic pressures? This article examines long-term changes in the distribution and occurrence of the elasmobranch assemblage of the southern North Sea, based on extensive historical time series (1902–2013) of fishery-independent survey data. In general, larger species (thornback ray, tope, spurdog) exhibited long-term declines, and the largest (common skate complex) became locally extirpated (as did angelshark). Smaller species increased (spotted and starry ray, lesser-spotted dogfish) as did smooth-hound, likely benefiting from greater resilience to fishing and/or climate change. This indicates a fundamental shift from historical dominance of larger, commercially valuable species to current prevalence of smaller, more productive species often of low commercial value. In recent years, however, some trends have reversed, with the (cold-water associated) starry ray now declining and thornback ray increasing. This shift may be attributed to (i) fishing, including mechanised beam trawling introduced in the 1960s–1970s, and historical target fisheries for elasmobranchs; (ii) climate change, currently favouring warm-water above cold-water species; and (iii) habitat loss, including potential degradation of coastal and outer estuarine nursery habitats. The same anthropogenic pressures, here documented to have impacted North Sea elasmobranchs over the past century, are likewise impacting shelf seas worldwide and may increase in the future; therefore, parallel changes in elasmobranch communities in other regions are to be expected

Extended deterrence dilemmas in the grey zone: transatlantic insights on Baltic security challenges

This is the final version. Available from De Gruyter via the DOI in this record.Should the U.S. respond with military means to a limited Russian incursion in the Baltics? This paper explores Western public and expert attitudes towards such a hypothetical grey zone crisis. Using survey experiments and crisis simulations we find considerable reluctance to use military tools and channels in order to support a Baltic ally, and surprisingly little variation across the audiences. We also find that the understanding of Baltic regional realities in the U.S. and Western Europe, although gradually increasing, remains limited. The underlying reluctance to get the U.S. involved in an armed conflict with Russia in the hopes that such acquiescence may help preserve global stability indicates that the conflict in Ukraine only had a fundamentally limited impact on Western strategic thought vis-à-vis deterring Russia. The study points to young Democrats as the most likely prospective supporters of armed defense of the Baltic region (as opposed to Republicans traditionally approached by Baltic lobbyists), suggesting a due shift in Transatlantic engagement

Moduli backreaction and supersymmetry breaking in string-inspired inflation models

We emphasize the importance of effects from heavy fields on supergravity models of inflation. We study, in particular, the backreaction of stabilizer fields and geometric moduli in the presence of supersymmetry breaking. Many effects do not decouple even if those fields are much heavier than the inflaton field. We apply our results to successful models of Starobinsky-like inflation and natural inflation. In most scenarios producing a plateau potential it proves difficult to retain the flatness of the potential after backreactions are taken into account. Some of them are incompatible with non-perturbative moduli stabilization. In natural inflation there exist a number of models which are not constrained by backreactions at all. In those cases the correction terms from heavy fields have the same inflaton-dependence as the uncorrected potential, so that inflation may be possible even for very large gravitino masses.Comment: 29 pages, 1 figure, comments added, subsection 2.3 added, published versio

Does the `Higgs' have Spin Zero?

The Higgs boson is predicted to have spin zero. The ATLAS and CMS experiments have recently reported of an excess of events with mass ~ 125 GeV that has some of the characteristics expected for a Higgs boson. We address the questions whether there is already any evidence that this excess has spin zero, and how this possibility could be confirmed in the near future. The excess observed in the gamma gamma final state could not have spin one, leaving zero and two as open possibilities. We calculate the angular distribution of gamma gamma pairs from the decays of a spin-two boson produced in gluon-gluon collisions, showing that is unique and distinct from the spin-zero case. We also calculate the distributions for lepton pairs that would be produced in the W W* decays of a spin-two boson, which are very different from those in Higgs decays, and note that the kinematics of the event selection used to produce the excess observed in the W W* final state have reduced efficiency for spin two.Comment: 22 pages, 22 figures, Version accepted for publication in JHEP, includes additional plots of dilepton mass distribution

Theoretical Aspects of Particle Production

These lectures describe some of the latest data on particle production in high-energy collisions and compare them with theoretical calculations and models based on QCD. The main topics covered are: fragmentation functions and factorization, small-x fragmentation, hadronization models, differences between quark and gluon fragmentation, current and target fragmentation in deep inelastic scattering, and heavy quark fragmentation.Comment: 26 pages, 27 figures. Lectures at International Summer School on Particle Production Spanning MeV and TeV Energies, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, August 199

The mu problem and sneutrino inflation

We consider sneutrino inflation and post-inflation cosmology in the singlet extension of the MSSM with approximate Peccei-Quinn(PQ) symmetry, assuming that supersymmetry breaking is mediated by gauge interaction. The PQ symmetry is broken by the intermediate-scale VEVs of two flaton fields, which are determined by the interplay between radiative flaton soft masses and higher order terms. Then, from the flaton VEVs, we obtain the correct mu term and the right-handed(RH) neutrino masses for see-saw mechanism. We show that the RH sneutrino with non-minimal gravity coupling drives inflation, thanks to the same flaton coupling giving rise to the RH neutrino mass. After inflation, extra vector-like states, that are responsible for the radiative breaking of the PQ symmetry, results in thermal inflation with the flaton field, solving the gravitino problem caused by high reheating temperature. Our model predicts the spectral index to be n_s\simeq 0.96 due to the additional efoldings from thermal inflation. We show that a right dark matter abundance comes from the gravitino of 100 keV mass and a successful baryogenesis is possible via Affleck-Dine leptogenesis.Comment: 27 pages, no figures, To appear in JHE

Impact Monitoring of the National Scale Up of Zinc Treatment for Childhood Diarrhea in Bangladesh: Repeat Ecologic Surveys

Charles Larson and colleagues find that 23 months into a national campaign to scale up zinc treatment for diarrhea in children under age 5 years, only 10% of children with diarrhea in rural areas and 20%–25% in urban/municipal areas were getting the treatment

Vacuum Stability, Perturbativity, and Scalar Singlet Dark Matter

We analyze the one-loop vacuum stability and perturbativity bounds on a singlet extension of the Standard Model (SM) scalar sector containing a scalar dark matter candidate. We show that the presence of the singlet-doublet quartic interaction relaxes the vacuum stability lower bound on the SM Higgs mass as a function of the cutoff and lowers the corresponding upper bound based on perturbativity considerations. We also find that vacuum stability requirements may place a lower bound on the singlet dark matter mass for given singlet quartic self coupling, leading to restrictions on the parameter space consistent with the observed relic density. We argue that discovery of a light singlet scalar dark matter particle could provide indirect information on the singlet quartic self-coupling.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures; v2 - fixed minor typos; v3 - added to text discussions of other references, changed coloring of figures for easier black and white viewin

MFV Reductions of MSSM Parameter Space

The 100+ free parameters of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) make it computationally difficult to compare systematically with data, motivating the study of specific parameter reductions such as the cMSSM and pMSSM. Here we instead study the reductions of parameter space implied by using minimal flavour violation (MFV) to organise the R-parity conserving MSSM, with a view towards systematically building in constraints on flavour-violating physics. Within this framework the space of parameters is reduced by expanding soft supersymmetry-breaking terms in powers of the Cabibbo angle, leading to a 24-, 30- or 42-parameter framework (which we call MSSM-24, MSSM-30, and MSSM-42 respectively), depending on the order kept in the expansion. We provide a Bayesian global fit to data of the MSSM-30 parameter set to show that this is manageable with current tools. We compare the MFV reductions to the 19-parameter pMSSM choice and show that the pMSSM is not contained as a subset. The MSSM-30 analysis favours a relatively lighter TeV-scale pseudoscalar Higgs boson and $\tan \beta \sim 10$ with multi-TeV sparticles.Comment: 2nd version, minor comments and references added, accepted for publication in JHE

Fluids in cosmology

We review the role of fluids in cosmology by first introducing them in General Relativity and then by applying them to a FRW Universe's model. We describe how relativistic and non-relativistic components evolve in the background dynamics. We also introduce scalar fields to show that they are able to yield an inflationary dynamics at very early times (inflation) and late times (quintessence). Then, we proceed to study the thermodynamical properties of the fluids and, lastly, its perturbed kinematics. We make emphasis in the constrictions of parameters by recent cosmological probes.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures, version accepted as invited review to the book "Computational and Experimental Fluid Mechanics with Applications to Physics, Engineering and the Environment". Version 2: typos corrected and references expande