Estimating the burden of selected non-communicable diseases in Africa: a systematic review of the evidence

Background The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rapidly increasing globally, and particularly in Africa, where the health focus, until recently, has been on infectious diseases. The response to this growing burden of NCDs in Africa has been affected owing to a poor understanding of the burden of NCDs, and the relative lack of data and low level of research on NCDs in the continent. Recent estimates on the burden of NCDs in Africa have been mostly derived from modelling based on data from other countries imputed into African countries, and not usually based on data originating from Africa itself. In instances where few data were available, estimates have been characterized by extrapolation and over-modelling of the scarce data. It is therefore believed that underestimation of NCDs burden in many parts of Africa cannot be unexpected. With a gradual increase in average life expectancy across Africa, the region now experiencing the fastest rate of urbanization globally, and an increase adoption of unhealthy lifestyles, the burden of NCDs is expected to rise. This thesis will, therefore, be focussing on understanding the prevalence, and/or where there are available data, the incidence, of four major NCDs in Africa, which have contributed highly to the burden of NCDs, not only in Africa, but also globally. Methods I conducted a systematic search of the literature on three main databases (Medline, EMBASE and Global Health) for epidemiological studies on NCDs conducted in Africa. I retained and extracted data from original population-based (cohort or cross sectional), and/or health service records (hospital or registry-based studies) on prevalence and/or incidence rates of four major NCDs in Africa. These include: cardiovascular diseases (hypertension and stroke), diabetes, major cancer types (cervical, breast, prostate, ovary, oesophagus, bladder, Kaposi, liver, stomach, colorectal, lung and non-Hodgkin lymphoma), and chronic respiratory diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma). From extracted crude prevalence and incidence rates, a random effect meta-analysis was conducted and reported for each NCD. An epidemiological model was applied on all extracted data points. The fitted curve explaining the largest proportion of variance (best fit) from the model was further applied. The equation generated from the fitted curve was used to determine the prevalence and cases of the specific NCD in Africa at midpoints of the United Nations (UN) population 5-year age-group population estimates for Africa. Results From the literature search, studies on hypertension had the highest publication output at 7680, 92 of which were selected, spreading across 31 African countries. Cancer had 9762 publications and 39 were selected across 20 countries; diabetes had 3701 publications and 48 were selected across 28 countries; stroke had 1227 publications and 19 were selected across 10 countries; asthma had 790 publications and 45 were selected across 24 countries; and COPD had the lowest output with 243 publications and 13 were selected across 8 countries. From studies reporting prevalence rates, hypertension, with a total sample size of 197734, accounted for 130.2 million cases and a prevalence of 25.9% (23.5, 34.0) in Africa in 2010. This is followed by asthma, with a sample size of 187904, accounting for 58.2 million cases and a prevalence of 6.6% (2.4, 7.9); COPD, with a sample size of 24747, accounting for 26.3 million cases and a prevalence of 13.4% (9.4, 22.1); diabetes, with a sample size of 102517, accounting for 24.5 million cases and a prevalence of 4.0% (2.7, 6.4); and stroke, with a sample size of about 6.3 million, accounting for 1.94 million cases and a prevalence of 317.3 per 100000 population (314.0, 748.2). From studies reporting incidence rates, stroke accounted for 496 thousand new cases in Africa in 2010, with a prevalence of 81.3 per 100000 person years (13.2, 94.9). For the 12 cancer types reviewed, a total of 775 thousand new cases were estimated in Africa in 2010 from registry-based data covering a total population of about 33 million. Among women, cervical cancer and breast cancer had 129 thousand and 81 thousand new cases, with incidence rates of 28.2 (22.1, 34.3) and 17.7 (13.0, 22.4) per 100000 person years, respectively. Among men, prostate cancer and Kaposi sarcoma closely follows with 75 thousand and 74 thousand new cases, with incidence rates of 14.5 (10.9, 18.0) and 14.3 (11.9, 16.7) per 100000 person years, respectively. Conclusion This study suggests the prevalence rates of the four major NCDs reviewed (cardiovascular diseases (hypertension and stroke), diabetes, major cancer types, and chronic respiratory diseases (COPD and asthma) in Africa are high relative to global estimates. Due to the lack of data on many NCDs across the continent, there are still doubts on the true prevalence of these diseases relative to the current African population. There is need for improvement in health information system and overall data management, especially at country level in Africa. Governments of African nations, international organizations, experts and other stakeholders need to invest more on NCDs research, particularly mortality, risk factors, and health determinants to have evidenced-based facts on the drivers of this epidemic in the continent, and prompt better, effective and overall public health response to NCDs in Africa

The impact of cardiovascular risk factors on the age-related excess risk of coronary heart disease

PURPOSE: Differences in cardiovascular risk factor levels have been suggested to contribute to the age-related excess risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to reliably quantify these contributions using a large prospective dataset. METHODS: We carried out an individual participant data meta-analysis of 41 cohort studies (n = 582,134) from Asia, and Australia and New Zealand. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios for coronary death, comparing individuals aged 55-64, 65-74, and >or=5 yrs with those aged <55 yrs. Adjustments were made for coronary risk factors to quantify their contributions to the age differential. RESULTS: During 4.1 million person-years of follow-up, there were 2,915 deaths from CHD. The risk of CHD increased substantially with age in all groups, especially in women. Differences in cardiovascular risk factors explained between one-quarter to one-third of the age-related excess of CHD in men and one-half of that in women. Systolic blood pressure was the chief contributor to the excess risk in all groups. CONCLUSIONS: Systolic blood pressure was the most important modifiable risk factor contributing to the excess CHD risk that occurs with aging in men and women, but in comparison with the effects of age itself, the effects of blood pressure are small.link_to_OA_fulltex

Effect of monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation on falls and non-vertebral fractures: secondary and post-hoc outcomes from the randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled ViDA trial

$\textbf{BACKGROUND}$: Adults with low concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) in blood have an increased risk of falls and fractures, but randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation have had inconsistent results. We aimed to assess the effect of high-dose vitamin D supplementation on fractures and falls. $\textbf{METHODS}$: The Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) Study was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of healthy volunteers aged 50-84 years conducted at one centre in Auckland, New Zealand. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either an initial oral dose of 200 000 IU (5·0 mg) colecalciferol (vitamin D3) followed by monthly 100 000 IU (2·5 mg) colecalciferol or equivalent placebo dosing. The prespecified primary outcome was cardiovascular disease and secondary outcomes were respiratory illness and fractures. Here, we report secondary outcome data for fractures and post-hoc outcome data for falls. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for time to first fracture or time to first fall in individuals allocated vitamin D compared with placebo. The analysis of fractures included all participants who gave consent and was by intention-to-treat; the analysis of falls included all individuals who returned one or more questionnaires. This trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12611000402943. $\textbf{FINDINGS}$: Between April 5, 2011, and Nov 6, 2012, 5110 participants were recruited and randomly assigned either colecalciferol (n=2558) or placebo (n=2552). Two participants allocated placebo withdrew consent after randomisation; thus, a total of 5108 individuals were included in the analysis of fractures. The mean age of participants was 65·9 years (SD 8·3) and 2971 (58%) were men. The mean concentration of 25(OH)D in blood was 63 nmol/L (SD 24) at baseline, with 1534 (30%) having 25(OH)D concentrations lower than 50 nmol/L. Follow-up was until July 31, 2015, with a mean treatment duration of 3·4 years (SD 0·4, range 2·5-4·2). During follow-up, 2638 participants reported having a fall, 1312 (52%) of 2539 in the vitamin D group compared with 1326 (53%) of 2517 in the placebo group. The HR for falls-adjusted for age, sex, ethnic origin, history of recent fall, physical activity, and baseline 25(OH)D-was 0·99 (95% CI 0·92-1·07; p=0·82) for vitamin D compared with placebo. Non-vertebral fractures were reported in 292 individuals, 156 (6%) of 2558 in the vitamin D group and 136 (5%) of 2550 in the placebo group. The adjusted HR for fractures was 1·19 (95% CI 0·94-1·50; p=0·15) for vitamin D compared with placebo. 123 (2%) people died during the trial, 65 assigned vitamin D and 58 allocated placebo; the difference between treatment groups was not significant. $\textbf{INTERPRETATION}$: High-dose bolus vitamin D supplementation of 100 000 IU colecalciferol monthly over 2·5-4·2 years did not prevent falls or fractures in this healthy, ambulatory, adult population. Further research is needed to ascertain the effects of daily vitamin D dosing, with or without calcium. $\textbf{FUNDING}$: Health Research Council of New Zealand and Accident Compensation Corporation of New Zealand.This study was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (grant 10/400) and the Accident Compensation Corporation of New Zealand

Blood pressure indices and cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region: a pooled analysis

This article aims to compare the importance of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and pulse pressure (PP) as risk factors for stroke and ischemic heart disease and to assess whether the patterns are consistent by age and gender. Cox proportional-hazards regression, adjusted for cholesterol and smoking, was used to assess the associations of the 4 BP indices with stroke and ischemic heart disease by age and gender. The relative importance of individual indices was assessed with a hazard ratios for a 1-SD change in BP and by likelihood-ratio chi2 tests. The influence of >1 BP index in the Cox model was also estimated. The analyses demonstrated similar associations of SBP, DBP, and MAP with both fatal stroke and ischemic heart diseases, which were stronger than those of PP. Both SBP and MAP tended to be more important in the regression model than DBP or PP. In Cox models including DBP, addition of SBP improved the goodness of fit at all ages and for both genders. However, in Cox models including SBP, addition of DBP typically resulted in little incremental benefit over and above that of SBP alone. These data suggest that if time or resources are highly constrained, such as in much-needed epidemiologic surveys in developing countries, very little is lost from only measuring SBP.link_to_OA_fulltex