A multivariate framework to study spatio-temporal dependency of electricity load and wind power

With massive wind power integration, the spatial distribution of electricity load centers and wind power plants make it plausible to study the inter-spatial dependence and temporal correlation for the effective working of the power system. In this paper, a novel multivariate framework is developed to study the spatio-temporal dependency using vine copula. Hourly resolution of load and wind power data obtained from a US regional transmission operator spanning 3 years and spatially distributed in 19 load and two wind power zones are considered in this study. Data collection, in terms of dimension, tends to increase in future, and to tackle this high-dimensional data, a reproducible sampling algorithm using vine copula is developed. The sampling algorithm employs k-means clustering along with singular value decomposition technique to ease the computational burden. Selection of appropriate clustering technique and copula family is realized by the goodness of clustering and goodness of fit tests. The paper concludes with a discussion on the importance of spatio-temporal modeling of load and wind power and the advantage of the proposed multivariate sampling algorithm using vine copula

Dimethylsulfide (DMS) production in polar oceans is resilient to ocean acidification

Emissions of dimethylsulfide (DMS) from the polar oceans play a key role in atmospheric processes and climate. Therefore, it is important we increase our understanding of how DMS production in these regions may respond to environmental change. The polar oceans are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA). However, our understanding of the polar DMS response is limited to two studies conducted in Arctic waters, where in both cases DMS concentrations decreased with increasing acidity. Here, we report on our findings from seven summertime shipboard microcosm experiments undertaken in a variety of locations in the Arctic Ocean and Southern Ocean. These experiments reveal no significant effects of short term OA on the net production of DMS by planktonic communities. This is in contrast to identical experiments from temperate NW European shelf waters where surface ocean communities responded to OA with significant increases in dissolved DMS concentrations. A meta-analysis of the findings from both temperate and polar waters (n=18 experiments) reveals clear regional differences in the DMS response to OA. We suggest that these regional differences in DMS response reflect the natural variability in carbonate chemistry to which the respective communities may already be adapted. Future temperate oceans could be more sensitive to OA resulting in a change in DMS emissions to the atmosphere, whilst perhaps surprisingly DMS emissions from the polar oceans may remain relatively unchanged. By demonstrating that DMS emissions from geographically distinct regions may vary in response to OA, our results may facilitate a better understanding of Earth's future climate. Our study suggests that the way in which processes that generate DMS respond to OA may be regionally distinct and this should be taken into account in predicting future DMS emissions and their influence on Earth's climate

Blind topological measurement-based quantum computation

Blind quantum computation is a novel secure quantum-computing protocol that enables Alice, who does not have sufficient quantum technology at her disposal, to delegate her quantum computation to Bob, who has a fully fledged quantum computer, in such a way that Bob cannot learn anything about Alice's input, output and algorithm. A recent proof-of-principle experiment demonstrating blind quantum computation in an optical system has raised new challenges regarding the scalability of blind quantum computation in realistic noisy conditions. Here we show that fault-tolerant blind quantum computation is possible in a topologically protected manner using the Raussendorf-Harrington-Goyal scheme. The error threshold of our scheme is 0.0043, which is comparable to that (0.0075) of non-blind topological quantum computation. As the error per gate of the order 0.001 was already achieved in some experimental systems, our result implies that secure cloud quantum computation is within reach.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure

Exploitation of symmetry in periodic Self-Consistent-Field ab initio calculations: application to large three-dimensional compounds

Symmetry can dramatically reduce the computational cost (running time and memory allocation) of Self-Consistent-Field ab initio calculations for crystalline systems. Crucial for running time is use of symmetry in the evaluation of one- and two-electron integrals, diagonalization of the Fock matrix at selected points in reciprocal space, reconstruction of the density matrix. As regards memory allocation, full square matrices (overlap, Fock and density) in the Atomic Orbital (AO) basis are avoided and a direct transformation from the packed AO to the SACO (Symmetry Adapted Crystalline Orbital) basis is performed, so that the largest matrix to be handled has the size of the largest sub-block in the latter basis. We here illustrate the effectiveness of this scheme, following recent advancements in the CRYSTAL code, concerning memory allocation and direct basis set transformation. Quantitative examples are given for large unit cell systems, such as zeolites (all-silica faujasite and silicalite MFI) and garnets (pyrope). It is shown that the full SCF of 3D systems containing up to 576 atoms and 11136 Atomic Orbitals in the cell can be run with a hybrid functional on a single core PC with 500 MB RAM in about 8 h. © 2014 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Gestational age at delivery and special educational need: retrospective cohort study of 407,503 schoolchildren

<STRONG>Background</STRONG> Previous studies have demonstrated an association between preterm delivery and increased risk of special educational need (SEN). The aim of our study was to examine the risk of SEN across the full range of gestation. <STRONG>Methods and Findings</STRONG> We conducted a population-based, retrospective study by linking school census data on the 407,503 eligible school-aged children resident in 19 Scottish Local Authority areas (total population 3.8 million) to their routine birth data. SEN was recorded in 17,784 (4.9%) children; 1,565 (8.4%) of those born preterm and 16,219 (4.7%) of those born at term. The risk of SEN increased across the whole range of gestation from 40 to 24 wk: 37–39 wk adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–1.20; 33–36 wk adjusted OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.43–1.63; 28–32 wk adjusted OR 2.66, 95% CI 2.38–2.97; 24–27 wk adjusted OR 6.92, 95% CI 5.58–8.58. There was no interaction between elective versus spontaneous delivery. Overall, gestation at delivery accounted for 10% of the adjusted population attributable fraction of SEN. Because of their high frequency, early term deliveries (37–39 wk) accounted for 5.5% of cases of SEN compared with preterm deliveries (<37 wk), which accounted for only 3.6% of cases. <STRONG>Conclusions</STRONG> Gestation at delivery had a strong, dose-dependent relationship with SEN that was apparent across the whole range of gestation. Because early term delivery is more common than preterm delivery, the former accounts for a higher percentage of SEN cases. Our findings have important implications for clinical practice in relation to the timing of elective delivery

Haplotype inference in crossbred populations without pedigree information

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Current methods for haplotype inference without pedigree information assume random mating populations. In animal and plant breeding, however, mating is often not random. A particular form of nonrandom mating occurs when parental individuals of opposite sex originate from distinct populations. In animal breeding this is called <it>crossbreeding </it>and <it>hybridization </it>in plant breeding. In these situations, association between marker and putative gene alleles might differ between the founding populations and origin of alleles should be accounted for in studies which estimate breeding values with marker data. The sequence of alleles from one parent constitutes one haplotype of an individual. Haplotypes thus reveal allele origin in data of crossbred individuals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We introduce a new method for haplotype inference without pedigree that allows nonrandom mating and that can use genotype data of the parental populations and of a crossbred population. The aim of the method is to estimate line origin of alleles. The method has a Bayesian set up with a Dirichlet Process as prior for the haplotypes in the two parental populations. The basic idea is that only a subset of the complete set of possible haplotypes is present in the population.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Line origin of approximately 95% of the alleles at heterozygous sites was assessed correctly in both simulated and real data. Comparing accuracy of haplotype frequencies inferred with the new algorithm to the accuracy of haplotype frequencies inferred with PHASE, an existing algorithm for haplotype inference, showed that the DP algorithm outperformed PHASE in situations of crossbreeding and that PHASE performed better in situations of random mating.</p

Spatially Resolved Magnetic Field Structure in the Disk of a T Tauri Star

Magnetic fields in accretion disks play a dominant role during the star formation process but have hitherto been observationally poorly constrained. Field strengths have been inferred on T Tauri stars themselves and possibly in the innermost part of the accretion disk, but the strength and morphology of the field in the bulk of the disk have not been observed. Unresolved measurements of polarized emission (arising from elongated dust grains aligned perpendicular to the field) imply average fields aligned with the disks. Theoretically, the fields are expected to be largely toroidal, poloidal, or a mixture of the two, which imply different mechanisms for transporting angular momentum in the disks of actively accreting young stars such as HL Tau. Here we report resolved measurements of the polarized 1.25 mm continuum emission from HL Tau's disk. The magnetic field on a scale of 80 AU is coincident with the major axis (~210 AU diameter) of the disk. From this we conclude that the magnetic field inside the disk at this scale cannot be dominated by a vertical component, though a purely toroidal field does not fit the data well either. The unexpected morphology suggests that the magnetic field's role for the accretion of a T Tauri star is more complex than the current theoretical understanding.Comment: Accepted for publication in Natur

Survival and health economic outcomes in heart failure diagnosed at hospital admission versus community settings: a propensity-matched analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most patients with heart failure (HF) are diagnosed following a hospital admission. The clinical and health economic impacts of index HF diagnosis made on admission to hospital versus community settings are not known. METHODS: We used the North West London Discover database to examine 34 208 patients receiving an index diagnosis of HF between January 2015 and December 2020. A propensity score-matched (PSM) cohort was identified to adjust for differences in socioeconomic status, cardiovascular risk and pre-diagnosis health resource utilisation cost. Outcomes were stratified by two pathways to index HF diagnosis: a 'hospital pathway' was defined by diagnosis following hospital admission; and a 'community pathway' by diagnosis via a general practitioner or outpatient services. The primary clinical and health economic endpoints were all-cause mortality and cost-consequence differential, respectively. RESULTS: The diagnosis of HF was via hospital pathway in 68% (23 273) of patients. The PSM cohort included 17 174 patients (8582 per group) and was matched across all selected confounders (p>0.05). The ratio of deaths per person-months at 24 months comparing community versus hospital diagnosis was 0.780 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.841, p<0.0001). By 72 months, the ratio of deaths was 0.960 (0.905 to 1.020, p=0.18). Diagnosis via hospital pathway incurred an overall extra longitudinal cost of £2485 per patient. CONCLUSIONS: Index diagnosis of HF through hospital admission continues to dominate and is associated with a significantly greater short-term risk of mortality and substantially increased long-term costs than if first diagnosed in the community. This study highlights the potential for community diagnosis-early, before symptoms necessitate hospitalisation-to improve both clinical and health economic outcomes

Floral temperature and optimal foraging: is heat a feasible floral reward for pollinators?

As well as nutritional rewards, some plants also reward ectothermic pollinators with warmth. Bumble bees have some control over their temperature, but have been shown to forage at warmer flowers when given a choice, suggesting that there is some advantage to them of foraging at warm flowers (such as reducing the energy required to raise their body to flight temperature before leaving the flower). We describe a model that considers how a heat reward affects the foraging behaviour in a thermogenic central-place forager (such as a bumble bee). We show that although the pollinator should spend a longer time on individual flowers if they are warm, the increase in total visit time is likely to be small. The pollinator's net rate of energy gain will be increased by landing on warmer flowers. Therefore, if a plant provides a heat reward, it could reduce the amount of nectar it produces, whilst still providing its pollinator with the same net rate of gain. We suggest how heat rewards may link with plant life history strategies