Real effective exchange rate uncertainty, threshold effects, and aggregate investment: Evidence from Latin American countries

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between real effective exchange rate uncertainty and aggregate investment in six Latin American economies. Its main contributions are that it explicitly tests for linear as well as non-linear effects of uncertainty in a time-series model that allows the country-specific interpretation. A (G)ARCH-based uncertainty measure is constructed for each country which is then included in a GMM time-series model that accounts for the endogeneity of the variables. When accounting for threshold effects, this paper finds that high levels of real effective exchange rate uncertainty affect aggregate investment negatively in all countries in the sample

Does respondent reticence affect the results of corruption surveys ? evidence from the world bank enterprise survey for Nigeria

A potential concern with survey-based data on corruption is that respondents may not be fully candid in their responses to sensitive questions. If reticent respondents are less likely to admit to involvement in corrupt acts, and if the proportion of reticent respondents varies across groups of interest, comparisons of reported corruption across those groups can be misleading. This paper implements a variant on random response techniques that allows for identification of reticent respondents in the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey for Nigeria fielded in 2008 and 2009. The authors find that 13.1 percent of respondents are highly likely to be reticent, and that these reticent respondents admit to sensitive acts at a significantly lower rate than possibly candid respondents when survey questions are worded in a way that implies personal wrongdoing on the part of the respondent.Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,E-Business,Social Analysis,Social Accountability,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress

Corruption and confidence in public institutions : evidence from a global survey

Well-functioning institutions matter for economic development. In order to operate effectively, public institutions must also inspire confidence in those they serve. The authors use data from the Gallup World Poll, a unique and very large global household survey, to document a quantitatively large and statistically significant negative correlation between corruption and confidence in public institutions. This suggests an important channel through which corruption can inhibit development by eroding confidence in public institutions. This correlation is robust to the inclusion of a large set of controls for country and respondent-level characteristics, and they show how it can plausibly be interpreted as reflecting at least in part a causal effect from corruption to confidence. The authors also show that individuals with low confidence in institutions exhibit low levels of political participation, show increased tolerance for violent means to achieve political ends, and have a greater desire to"vote with their feet"through emigration.Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Government Diagnostic Capacity Building,Corruption&Anitcorruption Law,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Social Accountability

Corruption and confidence in public institutions: Evidence from a global survey

Well-functioning institutions matter for economic development. In order to operate effectively, public institutions must also inspire confidence in those they serve. We use data from the Gallup World Poll, a unique and very large global household survey, to document a quantitatively large and statistically significant negative correlation between corruption and confidence in public institutions. This suggests an important indirect channel through which corruption can inhibit development: by eroding confidence in public institutions. This correlation is robust to the inclusion of a large set of controls for country and respondent-level characteristics. Moreover we show how it can plausibly be interpreted as reflecting at least in part a causal effect from corruption to confidence. Finally, we provide evidence that individuals with low confidence in institutions exhibit low levels of political participation, show increased tolerance for violent means to achieve political ends, and have a greater desire to “vote with their feet” through emigration

Occupational Exposure and Environmental Release : The Case Study of Pouring TiO2 and Filler Materials for Paint Production

Pulmonary exposure to micro- and nanoscaled particles has been widely linked to adverse health effects and high concentrations of respirable particles are expected to occur within and around many industrial settings. In this study, a field-measurement campaign was performed at an industrial manufacturer, during the production of paints. Spatial and personal measurements were conducted and results were used to estimate the mass flows in the facility and the airborne particle release to the outdoor environment. Airborne particle number concentration (1 x 10(3)-1.0 x 10(4) cm(-3)), respirable mass (0.06-0.6 mg m(-3)), and PM10 (0.3-6.5 mg m(-3)) were measured during pouring activities. In overall; emissions from pouring activities were found to be dominated by coarser particles >300 nm. Even though the raw materials were not identified as nanomaterials by the manufacturers, handling of TiO2 and clays resulted in release of nanometric particles to both workplace air and outdoor environment, which was confirmed by TEM analysis of indoor and stack emission samples. During the measurement period, none of the existing exposure limits in force were exceeded. Particle release to the outdoor environment varied from 6 to 20 g ton(-1) at concentrations between 0.6 and 9.7 mg m(-3) of total suspended dust depending on the powder. The estimated release of TiO2 to outdoors was 0.9 kg per year. Particle release to the environment is not expected to cause any major impact due to atmospheric dilutionPeer reviewe

Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.Economic forecasting;Economic growth;Gross domestic product;inflation, monetary policy, forecasting inflation, inflation forecasts, monetary policy rules, monetary fund, inflation data, inflationary pressures, actual inflation, monetary indicators

Corruption and Confidence in Public Institutions: Evidence from a Global Survey

Well-functioning institutions matter for economic development. In order to operate effectively, public institutions must also inspire confidence in those they serve. We use data from the Gallup World Poll, a unique and very large global household survey, to document a quantitatively large and statistically significant negative correlation between corruption and confidence in public institutions. This suggests an important indirect channel through which corruption can inhibit development: by eroding confidence in public institutions. This correlation is robust to the inclusion of a large set of controls for country and respondent-level characteristics. Moreover we show how it can plausibly be interpreted as reflecting at least in part a causal effect from corruption to confidence. Finally, we provide evidence that individuals with low confidence in institutions exhibit low levels of political participation, show increased tolerance for violent means to achieve political ends, and have a greater desire to “vote with their feet” through emigration. Copyright , Oxford University Press.