Learning Best Response Strategies for Agents in Ad Exchanges

Ad exchanges are widely used in platforms for online display advertising. Autonomous agents operating in these exchanges must learn policies for interacting profitably with a diverse, continually changing, but unknown market. We consider this problem from the perspective of a publisher, strategically interacting with an advertiser through a posted price mechanism. The learning problem for this agent is made difficult by the fact that information is censored, i.e., the publisher knows if an impression is sold but no other quantitative information. We address this problem using the Harsanyi-Bellman Ad Hoc Coordination (HBA) algorithm, which conceptualises this interaction in terms of a Stochastic Bayesian Game and arrives at optimal actions by best responding with respect to probabilistic beliefs maintained over a candidate set of opponent behaviour profiles. We adapt and apply HBA to the censored information setting of ad exchanges. Also, addressing the case of stochastic opponents, we devise a strategy based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator for opponent modelling. We evaluate the proposed method using simulations wherein we show that HBA-KM achieves substantially better competitive ratio and lower variance of return than baselines, including a Q-learning agent and a UCB-based online learning agent, and comparable to the offline optimal algorithm

Hereditary sensory neuropathy type I

Hereditary sensory neuropathy type I (HSN I) is a slowly progressive neurological disorder characterised by prominent predominantly distal sensory loss, autonomic disturbances, autosomal dominant inheritance, and juvenile or adulthood disease onset. The exact prevalence is unknown, but is estimated as very low. Disease onset varies between the 2nd and 5th decade of life. The main clinical feature of HSN I is the reduction of sensation sense mainly distributed to the distal parts of the upper and lower limbs. Variable distal muscle weakness and wasting, and chronic skin ulcers are characteristic. Autonomic features (usually sweating disturbances) are invariably observed. Serious and common complications are spontaneous fractures, osteomyelitis and necrosis, as well as neuropathic arthropathy which may even necessitate amputations. Some patients suffer from severe pain attacks. Hypacusis or deafness, or cough and gastrooesophageal reflux have been observed in rare cases. HSN I is a genetically heterogenous condition with three loci and mutations in two genes (SPTLC1 and RAB7) identified so far. Diagnosis is based on the clinical observation and is supported by a family history. Nerve conduction studies confirm a sensory and motor neuropathy predominantly affecting the lower limbs. Radiological studies, including magnetic resonance imaging, are useful when bone infections or necrosis are suspected. Definitive diagnosis is based on the detection of mutations by direct sequencing of the SPTLC1 and RAB7 genes. Correct clinical assessment and genetic confirmation of the diagnosis are important for appropriate genetic counselling and prognosis. Differential diagnosis includes the other hereditary sensory and autonomic neuropathies (HSAN), especially HSAN II, as well as diabetic foot syndrome, alcoholic neuropathy, neuropathies caused by other neurotoxins/drugs, immune mediated neuropathy, amyloidosis, spinal cord diseases, tabes dorsalis, lepra neuropathy, or decaying skin tumours like amelanotic melanoma. Management of HSN I follows the guidelines given for diabetic foot care (removal of pressure to the ulcer and eradication of infection, followed by the use of specific protective footwear) and starts with early and accurate counselling of patients about risk factors for developing foot ulcerations. The disorder is slowly progressive and does not influence life expectancy but is often severely disabling after a long duration of the disease

Measuring every particle's size from three-dimensional imaging experiments

Often experimentalists study colloidal suspensions that are nominally monodisperse. In reality these samples have a polydispersity of 4-10%. At the level of an individual particle, the consequences of this polydispersity are unknown as it is difficult to measure an individual particle size from microscopy. We propose a general method to estimate individual particle radii within a moderately concentrated colloidal suspension observed with confocal microscopy. We confirm the validity of our method by numerical simulations of four major systems: random close packing, colloidal gels, nominally monodisperse dense samples, and nominally binary dense samples. We then apply our method to experimental data, and demonstrate the utility of this method with results from four case studies. In the first, we demonstrate that we can recover the full particle size distribution {\it in situ}. In the second, we show that accounting for particle size leads to more accurate structural information in a random close packed sample. In the third, we show that crystal nucleation occurs in locally monodisperse regions. In the fourth, we show that particle mobility in a dense sample is correlated to the local volume fraction.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in old age

<p>Background: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been implicated as a risk factor for cognitive decline in old age, but results are inconsistent. We investigated the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).</p> <p>Methods: Prospective longitudinal study of men and women aged 70–82 years with pre-existing vascular disease or more than one risk factor to develop this condition (N = 5,154). Participants taking antithyroid medications, thyroid hormone supplementation and/or amiodarone were excluded. Thyroid function was measured at baseline: subclinical hyper- and hypothyroidism were defined as thyroid stimulating hormones (TSH) <0.45 mU/L or >4.50 mU/L respectively, with normal levels of free thyroxine (FT4). Cognitive performance was tested at baseline and at four subsequent time points during a mean follow-up of 3 years, using five neuropsychological performance tests.</p> <p>Results: Subclinical hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism were found in 65 and 161 participants, respectively. We found no consistent association of subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism with altered cognitive performance compared to euthyroid participants on the individual cognitive tests. Similarly, there was no association with rate of cognitive decline during follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion: We found no consistent evidence that subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism contribute to cognitive impairment or decline in old age. Although our data are not in support of treatment of subclinical thyroid dysfunction to prevent cognitive dysfunction in later life, only large randomized controlled trials can provide definitive evidence.</p&gt

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in old age

<p>Background: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been implicated as a risk factor for cognitive decline in old age, but results are inconsistent. We investigated the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).</p> <p>Methods: Prospective longitudinal study of men and women aged 70–82 years with pre-existing vascular disease or more than one risk factor to develop this condition (N = 5,154). Participants taking antithyroid medications, thyroid hormone supplementation and/or amiodarone were excluded. Thyroid function was measured at baseline: subclinical hyper- and hypothyroidism were defined as thyroid stimulating hormones (TSH) <0.45 mU/L or >4.50 mU/L respectively, with normal levels of free thyroxine (FT4). Cognitive performance was tested at baseline and at four subsequent time points during a mean follow-up of 3 years, using five neuropsychological performance tests.</p> <p>Results: Subclinical hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism were found in 65 and 161 participants, respectively. We found no consistent association of subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism with altered cognitive performance compared to euthyroid participants on the individual cognitive tests. Similarly, there was no association with rate of cognitive decline during follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion: We found no consistent evidence that subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism contribute to cognitive impairment or decline in old age. Although our data are not in support of treatment of subclinical thyroid dysfunction to prevent cognitive dysfunction in later life, only large randomized controlled trials can provide definitive evidence.</p&gt

Genomic instability and proliferative activity as risk factors for distant metastases in breast cancer

The role of genomic instability and proliferative activity for development of distant metastases in breast cancer was analysed, and the relative contribution of these two risk factors was quantified. A detailed quantitative comparison was performed between Ki67 and cyclin A as proliferative markers. The frequency of Ki67 and cyclin A-positive cells was scored in the same microscopic areas in 428 breast tumours. The frequency of Ki67-positive cells was found to be highly correlated with the frequency of cyclin A-positive cells, and both proliferation markers were equally good to predict risk of distant metastases. The relative contribution of degree of aneuploidy and proliferative activity as risk markers for developing distant metastases was studied independently. Although increased proliferative activity in general was associated with an increased risk of developing distant metastases, ploidy level was found to be an independent and even stronger marker when considering the group of small (T1) node negative tumours. By combining proliferative activity and ploidy level, a large group of low risk breast tumours (39%) could be identified in which only a few percentage of the tumours (5%) developed distant metastases during the 9-year follow-up time period

Quantitative imaging of concentrated suspensions under flow

We review recent advances in imaging the flow of concentrated suspensions, focussing on the use of confocal microscopy to obtain time-resolved information on the single-particle level in these systems. After motivating the need for quantitative (confocal) imaging in suspension rheology, we briefly describe the particles, sample environments, microscopy tools and analysis algorithms needed to perform this kind of experiments. The second part of the review focusses on microscopic aspects of the flow of concentrated model hard-sphere-like suspensions, and the relation to non-linear rheological phenomena such as yielding, shear localization, wall slip and shear-induced ordering. Both Brownian and non-Brownian systems will be described. We show how quantitative imaging can improve our understanding of the connection between microscopic dynamics and bulk flow.Comment: Review on imaging hard-sphere suspensions, incl summary of methodology. Submitted for special volume 'High Solid Dispersions' ed. M. Cloitre, Vol. xx of 'Advances and Polymer Science' (Springer, Berlin, 2009); 22 pages, 16 fig

"Hook"-calibration of GeneChip-microarrays: Chip characteristics and expression measures

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microarray experiments rely on several critical steps that may introduce biases and uncertainty in downstream analyses. These steps include mRNA sample extraction, amplification and labelling, hybridization, and scanning causing chip-specific systematic variations on the raw intensity level. Also the chosen array-type and the up-to-dateness of the genomic information probed on the chip affect the quality of the expression measures. In the accompanying publication we presented theory and algorithm of the so-called hook method which aims at correcting expression data for systematic biases using a series of new chip characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this publication we summarize the essential chip characteristics provided by this method, analyze special benchmark experiments to estimate transcript related expression measures and illustrate the potency of the method to detect and to quantify the quality of a particular hybridization. It is shown that our single-chip approach provides expression measures responding linearly on changes of the transcript concentration over three orders of magnitude. In addition, the method calculates a detection call judging the relation between the signal and the detection limit of the particular measurement. The performance of the method in the context of different chip generations and probe set assignments is illustrated. The hook method characterizes the RNA-quality in terms of the 3'/5'-amplification bias and the sample-specific calling rate. We show that the proper judgement of these effects requires the disentanglement of non-specific and specific hybridization which, otherwise, can lead to misinterpretations of expression changes. The consequences of modifying probe/target interactions by either changing the labelling protocol or by substituting RNA by DNA targets are demonstrated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The single-chip based hook-method provides accurate expression estimates and chip-summary characteristics using the natural metrics given by the hybridization reaction with the potency to develop new standards for microarray quality control and calibration.</p

High Degree of Heterogeneity in Alzheimer's Disease Progression Patterns

There have been several reports on the varying rates of progression among Alzheimer's Disease (AD) patients; however, there has been no quantitative study of the amount of heterogeneity in AD. Obtaining a reliable quantitative measure of AD progression rates and their variances among the patients for each stage of AD is essential for evaluating results of any clinical study. The Global Deterioration Scale (GDS) and Functional Assessment Staging procedure (FAST) characterize seven stages in the course of AD from normal aging to severe dementia. Each GDS/FAST stage has a published mean duration, but the variance is unknown. We use statistical analysis to reconstruct GDS/FAST stage durations in a cohort of 648 AD patients with an average follow-up time of 4.78 years. Calculations for GDS/FAST stages 4–6 reveal that the standard deviations for stage durations are comparable with their mean values, indicating the presence of large variations in the AD progression among patients. Such amount of heterogeneity in the course of progression of AD is consistent with the existence of several sub-groups of AD patients, which differ by their patterns of decline