Die Wahlen zum dänischen Folketing vom 18. Juni 2015: knapper bürgerlicher Sieg bei erdrutschartigen Wählerwanderungen

Seit der Folketingswahl 2011 gab es nach zehnjähriger bürgerlicher Dominanz wieder eine Mitte-links-Minderheitsregierung, die von den Sozialdemokraten angeführt wurde .1 Diese Koalition aus Sozialdemokraten (S), Sozialliberalen (Det Radikale Venstre, RV) und der Sozialistischen Volkspartei (SF), die von der linksradikalen Einheitsliste (EL) toleriert wur- de, wurde jedoch bei der Wahl im Juni 2015 nicht im Amt bestätigt . Dies war auch die Konsequenz aus zahlreichen internen Auseinandersetzungen, Kabinettsumbildungen und dem Bruch zentraler Wahlversprechen seitens der Sozialdemokraten und Sozialisten, die im Austritt der Sozialisten aus der Koalition Anfang 2014 kulminierten . Im Gegensatz zu ihrer liberal-konservativen Vorgängerin war die sozialdemokratische Minderheitsregierung häufig auf blockübergreifende Zusammenarbeit mit den Oppositionsparteien angewiesen, da sich die linksradikale Einheitsliste den zahlreichen Sozialstaatsreformen in der Wahlperiode 2011 bis 2015 verweigerte, in denen auch ein Grund für die gescheiterte Wiederwahl der sozialdemokratisch-sozialliberalen Minderheitsregierung zu sehen ist . Die Wahl 2015 war durch die größte Nettovolatilität seit 1973 geprägt und brachte die nationalkonservative Dänische Volkspartei als großen Sieger hervor, während die rechtslibe- rale Venstre ihre Position als stärkste Partei an die Sozialdemokraten abgeben musste und nur noch drittstärkte Kraft ist . Die Dänische Volkspartei wurde zum ersten Mal die stärkste bürgerliche Partei; somit konnte der europaweite Trend zu einer Stärkung nationalkonser- vativer Parteien auch bei der Folketingswahl 2015 beobachtet werden . Die neue liberale Minderheitsregierung wird zum ersten Mal seit 1973 von der drittstärksten Partei allein gebildet . Ihr langfristiges Überleben wird von ihrer Manövrierfähigkeit und der Fähigkeit abhängen, Kompromisse mit den anderen bürgerlichen Parteien einzugehen . Erschwerend kommt hinzu, dass die Ausnahmeregelungen für die so genannten Rechtsvorbehalte Däne- marks in der Europäischen Union in einem Referendum am 3 . Dezember 2015 bestätigt wurden, was als Niederlage für die amtierende Regierung gewertet werden kann

An empirical model of issue evolution and partisan realignment in a multiparty system

Since Carmines and Stimson’s seminal work, the concept of issue evolution has become a common theoretical toolkit to examine and explain polarization around cultural issues and partisan realignment in the United States. However, very few studies outside the United States have applied the concept of issue evolution to explain electoral change and realignment around new issues at national elections over time. Analyzing whether and how Carmines and Stimson’s concept travels to electoral change in a multiparty system would provide more theoretical leverage and create empirical knowledge on the logic of issue evolution outside the United States and also whether the logic of electoral change differs from U.S.-style two-party systems. This article applies the issue evolution concept to a multidimensional multiparty system using micro-level data from 1971 to 2011 in combination with data on elite-level polarization to demonstrate that partisan realignment in Denmark follows an issue evolution process with niche parties as main drivers. Moreover, niche party polarization on the new dimension of conflict has a stronger effect on vote choice than mainstream party polarization

The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms

In all advanced Western nations, policy-makers have implemented encompassing welfare state reforms in recent decades breaking with past welfare arrangements. In particular, social democracy engaged in significant policy change under the Third Way paradigm and broke with its traditional reputation on welfare that had built the ties with the core constituency in the 20th century. The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms: Social Democracy’s Transformation and its Political Costs provides a comparative study of the electoral consequences of Third Way welfare state reforms. The book demonstrates that Third Way reforms went against the social policy preferences of social democracy’s core voters and indeed produced an electoral setback for social democrats at the ballots. Moreover, and accounting for cross-national variation, the analysis shows that the nature of the setback is contingent on the electoral system and the party competition social democrats face when reforming the welfare state

Workers in smaller companies are more likely to vote conservative

Countries with a high share of small and medium plants offer a context for new-right parties, write Christoph Arndt and Line Rennwal

Social democracy after the Third Way: restoration or renewal?

Given the ill-fated political experience with the Third Way, one would not expect social democratic parties that return to office after long opposition spells to take up again the liberal, supply-side oriented policies that were so typical for the Third Way. A case study of Denmark, however, shows that that is precisely what happens and that it has the same disastrous electoral consequences. Taking a comparative perspective and learning from the Danish experience, we conclude that other future social democratic governments are likely to pursue many elements of the updated Third Way we found in the Danish case

Energy and glacier mass balance of Fürkeleferner, Italy: past, present, and future

The energy and mass balance of mountain glaciers translate into volume changes that play out as area changes over time. From this, together with former moraines during maximum advances, information on past climate conditions and the climatic drivers behind during glacier advances can be obtained. Here, we use the distributed COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) to simulate the present state of an Italian glacier, named Fürkeleferner, for the mass balance years 2013–2017. Next, we investigate the local climate during the time of the last “Little Ice Age” (LIA) maximum glacier advance using COSIPY together with the LIA glacier outline retrieved from moraine mapping and a digital elevation model (DEM) adapted for the glacier’s geometry at the time of the LIA as a benchmark. Furthermore, the glacier’s sensitivity to future air temperature increase of +1 K and +2 K is investigated using the same model. For all simulations, meteorological data of closely located climate stations are used to force the model. We show the individual monthly contribution of individual energy and mass balance components. Refreezing during the summer months is an important component of the energy and mass balance, on average about 9 % relative to total annual ablation. The results from simulating past climate show a 2.8 times larger glacier area for Fürkeleferner during the LIA than today. This further implies a 2.5 K colder climate, assuming that the amount of precipitation was 10 %–20 % in excess of today’s value. Concerning further temperature increase of 2 K, the glacier would only consist of the ablation area implying sustained mass loss and eventual total mass loss. Even under current climatic conditions, the glacier area would have to decrease to 17 % of its current area to be in a steady state. We discuss the reliability of the results by comparing simulated present mass balance to measured mass balances of neighboring glaciers in the European Alps and with short-term measurements on Fürkeleferner itself. In conclusion, we are able to show how the glacier responds to past and future climate change and determine the climatic drivers behind

Smart grid terminology development-crossing the boundaries of terminology standardization

Arndt S, Sheveleva T, Goeker C. Smart grid terminology development-crossing the boundaries of terminology standardization. Energy Sustainability and Society. 2015;5(1): 20.Background: Standardization is concerned with ongoing terminology standardization activities. Activities are rather complex in divergent topics and current themes of interest. The article is concerned with terminology standardization activities in Germany and international standardization activities for smart grids and smart-grid-related topics like smart metering systems, smart homes, and electromobility. Even though standardization topics are very clearly organized by standardization road maps, and responsibilities are distributed among working groups, there are still conceptual overlaps between activities of different groups that will result in inconsistencies and ambiguities in their respective glossaries. These glossaries, however, undergo only a limited process of synchronization during their development, especially on the level of single concepts and terms. The application of inconsistent and ambiguous terminology in standards may later on reduce their internal and external consistency, readability, and understandability. To create high-quality standards, conceptual consistency needs to be guaranteed. To do this, terminologies under development should be made more openly available to standardization working groups in the development phase (and not only after completion). Furthermore, additional synchronization tasks on the conceptual level are needed to generate consistent and clear conceptualizations of new technologies. Methods: A number of glossaries have been analyzed for overlaps as described by this article. Results: The article gives an overview of issues found in the respective glossaries, and the process can lead to proposals which may be put to vote among domain experts. Conclusions: Overall, domain experts working on terminologies should be given more assistance as regards terminological and linguistic knowledge and methodology to assure linguistic and terminological next to technical quality of their terminologies. Future work will be dedicated to issue resolution and assistance for issue identification

Die Folketingswahl in Dänemark vom 6. Juni 2019: Klarer Sieg des linken Lagers

Nach der Folketingswahl 2015 bildete in Dänemark zunächst die rechtsliberale Partei Venstre allein die Regierung, die nach einem Jahr um Konservative und Liberale Allianz erweitert wurde. Beide Konstellationen wurden von der Dänischen Volkspartei toleriert. Das bürgerliche Lager wirkte jedoch aufgrund des ständigen Streits über die Steuerpolitik in der Öffentlichkeit zerstritten und konnte somit weder von der guten Konjunktur im Wahljahr noch von den umgesetzten Versprechen bei der Innen- und Zuwanderungspolitik profitieren. Somit verlor es bei der Folketingswahl 2019 seine Mehrheit an den Block aus Sozialdemokraten, Sozialliberalen, Sozialistischer Volkspartei und der Einheitsliste, der die Wahl überraschend deutlich gewann. Die Sozialdemokraten hatten während der Wahlperiode einen Kurswechsel zu einer dezidiert restriktiven Zuwanderungspolitik vollzogen und ihr Abschneiden wurde europaweit mit Spannung erwartet, da sie in dieser Hinsicht als mögliches Vorbild für andere Parteien galten, um traditionelle Stammwähler zurückzugewinnen. Neue Ministerpräsidentin wurde die Sozialdemokratin Mette Frederiksen, die eine Alleinregierung anführt. Diese wird von den anderen linken Parteien toleriert, die allerdings eine fundamental andere Zuwanderungspolitik als die Sozialdemokraten verfolgen. Somit hat die neue Regierungskonstellation eine Sollbruchstelle für die Wahlperiode 2019 bis 2023